After a few weeks of counting, California is nearly done with tabulating results from the Super Tuesday primary. Owing to the state’s top-two jungle primary system, California is actually unique among states in that primary results are generally quite predictive of general election results. With a handful of exceptions, most House races in California shift slightly to the left from the primary, but not by wide margin.
With this pattern in mind, we have seven House ratings changes to make in California – all favoring Republicans. These changes range from moving seats out of the Tossup category to moving a normally safe district onto the board.
Ratings Changes
- CA-03 (Kevin Kiley, Republican): Leans Republican to Likely Republican
- CA-09 (Josh Harder, Democratic): Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
- CA-13 (John Duarte, Republican): Tossup to Leans Republican
- CA-21 (Jim Costa, Democratic): Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic
- CA-27 (Mike Garcia, Republican): Tossup to Leans Republican
- CA-47 (Open, Democratic): Likely Democratic to Tossup
- CA-49 (Mike Levin, Democratic) Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
Northern California and the Central Valley
Our updates start with the 3rd district, a Trump+2 seat represented by first-termer Kiley Kiley. 2022 had a closer-than-expected race. We felt this district, which encompasses much of conservative Northern California as well as the liberal Lake Tahoe area, could be competitive. However, Kiley has nearly 56% of the vote in the primary against two Democrats. Even a slight Democratic shift wouldn’t make this seat a top-tier target. We’re shifting it to Likely Republican.
In the Central Valley, we initially felt Democrat Josh Harder was fairly safe in the Stockton-based, Biden+13 CA-09. However, we’re shifting this to Leans Democratic for two reasons. First, Harder actually trails the combined Republican vote in the primary. And second, the Republican nominee is Stockton mayor Kevin Lincoln, a highly credible nominee. Harder drastically overperformed in 2022, so we’re inclined to still give him the benefit of the doubt. However, we do think this seat will be competitive.
We’re also shifting two other Central Valley seats. In the 13th district, a majority-Hispanic Biden+11 seat, incumbent Republican John Duarte holds a 55-45 over Democrat Adam Gray. While Hispanic-majority seats in particular are prone to larger primary to general shifts, erasing a 10-point primary deficit in a rematch of 2022 isn’t something we think Gray is likely to do. We’re shifting this seat to Leans Republican.
Our most surprising update comes in the neighboring Fresno-based CA-21, where longtime incumbent Jim Costa has pulled out a rather shocking underperformance, leading Republican Michael Maher by only around six percentage points. Costa was one of the few California Democrats to actually run behind the primary vote in 2022; Democrats won the primary by 14, but Costa only carried the seat by eight percentage points. This is still a Biden+20 seat, so it’s not likely to be a top-tier target, but we’re moving this district onto the board at Likely Democratic.
Southern California
We have three changes in Southern California. In the Los Angeles County-based 27th district, Mike Garcia leads two Democrats by around 10 percentage points. As if that margin wasn’t striking enough, Garcia actually ran ahead of the Republican primary margin in 2022 by around six points. Because of this clear advantage, we’re shifting this back to Leans Republican. In the San Diego County-based 49th district, we’re also slightly downgrading incumbent Mike Levin’s odds. We think Levin is still the favorite here, but the Republican nominee is credible, and Levin only holds a two-point edge over the Republican field in the primary. We’re moving this seat to Leans Democratic.
Our biggest change comes in the 47th district, based entirely in Orange County and currently represented by retiring Democrat Katie Porter. We initially held this suburban Biden+10 seat at Likely Democratic. However, following the primary, we’re shifting it all the way to a Tossup. Why? There are two reasons. First, Republicans hold a two-point edge in the primary vote. This is a big deal in this seat, as the primary vote perfectly predicted the result last cycle – Democrats won both by 3.4%. Additionally, Democratic nominee Dave Min was sentenced to three years probation last year due to a DUI.
