The 2025 Virginia Gubernatorial Election: A Preview

The Candidates

Winsome Earle-Sears, Lieutenant Governor – Republican:

• 61-year-old Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears became the first black woman elected to a statewide office in the Commonwealth of Virginia when she narrowly won the 2021 lieutenant gubernatorial election against Democratic opponent Hala Ayala. On the same ballot, Glenn Youngkin carried the governorship of the Old Dominion State, defeating former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe.
• In 2025, she ran uncontested in the GOP primary for Governor. Earle-Sears has taken a cautious approach to the general election campaign, preferring private events to public rallies.
• Born in Jamaica, she grew up in the Bronx and went on to serve in the U.S. Marines Corps in her twenties. In 2002, she unseated a 20-year Democratic incumbent to become a State Delegate from the 90th district, yet in 2004 was defeated by VA-03 Democratic Representative Bobby Scotty in her bid to Congress. Later, she served in the Virginia Board of Education before joining the Republican ticket in 2021.
• During her term as Lieutenant Governor, she positioned herself to the right of Glenn Youngkin. She stated her opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion, calling the practice “genocide” in 2021 and voicing support for a Republican-backed 15-week ban in 2023. In May, she took the unusual step of expressing her dissent to a reproductive rights constitutional amendment passed by the Virginia Senate in a handwritten note while signing the bill – as President of the Chamber, she is required to sign any law that passes the Virginia Senate.

Abigail Spanberger, former U.S. Representative for VA-07, Democrat;

• 45-year-old former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger won uncontested the Democratic nomination for Governor of Virginia in 2025.
• Spanberger worked for 8 years as an intelligence officer for the CIA before being appointed by Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe to the Virginia Fair Housing Board.
• She was one of 35 freshmen Democratic women elected to the U.S. House in the blue wave of 2018, amid a fierce backlash against the Trump administration and its effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Spanberger defeated GOP incumbent Dave Brat in a competitive district that stretches from Northern Virginia to the northern edge of the Richmond Metropolitan Area.
• Her former district ranks 4th nationwide in terms of share of federal employees. They make up 14% of the total workforce in VA-07.
• During her tenure in the House, Spanberger positioned herself as a moderate Democrat, sometimes calling out the party’s progressive wing and bucking congressional leadership. When her party gained control of the Chamber in 2019, she was one of 11 Democrats that did not vote for Nancy Pelosi in the first ballot in the Speaker Election.
• Throughout the campaign, Spanberger has held a significant fundraising advantage, having consistently outraised Earle-Sears. In September, she hauled in $12.6 million compared to her opponent $9.1 million intake, leaving the a Democratic candidate with $5.4 on hand, while Earle-Sears has only $1.6 million in the bank.    by

The Issues

• Cost of living – Inflation was the driving factor in Donald Trump’s victory last fall, and will still play a major role in the Virginia Gubernatorial Election. Spanberger is making the issue a centerpiece of piece, focusing on energy bills and housing affordability.
• Youngkin’s Legacy – Earle-Sears is trying to paint herself as the successor of a popular governor with a +24 approval rating according to a Morning Consult poll taken in May. She is touting a pro-business, anti-regulation record – she pledged to cut the state’s car tax – as well as Youngkin’s handling of COVID, parents rights, and race and diversity in schools. She has criticized , on the debate stage and through numerous ads, Spanberger’s ambiguity over the participation of transgender teenagers in sports, echoing a successful tactic deployed by the Trump campaign back in 2024 against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
• Trump – Voters’ approval of the second Trump will undoubtedly affect the November election. In fact, the off-year Gubernatorial election has historically worked as a check on Presidents from both parties. Since 1976, only once did Virginians vote for a governor hailing from the same party as the White House incumbent, substantially regardless of Presidents’ approval ratings. The only exception came in 2013, when Democrat Terry McAuliffe carried the governorship a year after a rather unpopular Barack Obama had won reelection.

• Medicaid cuts and federal workers – Democrats are emphasizing the Medicaid cuts contained in the One Big Beautiful Bill passed by the Republican Congress, even though Virginia has a slightly smaller share of Medicaid recipients than the national average and Earle-Sears has herself sound sympathetic to the issue. On the other hand, the administration efforts to reduce the federal bureaucracy coupled with the ongoing government shutdown, may have an out influence on the Old Dominion State. Due to its proximity to Washington, DC, Virginia registers the second highest share of federal employees, only behind Maryland. Federal workers, the most affected by the government closure, are concentrated in Northern Virginia, but they make up a significant part of the workforce even in the Norfolk Metropolitan Area. Spanberger’s own former district, VA-07, registers the 4th highest percentage of federal employees in the US.

• Labor rights – Even though Virginia is not exactly a “blue-collar state”, with only 5.2% of its workers being union-affiliated, compared to the national 9.9%,, efforts to abolish a 80-year-old right-to-work law have come to the fore in recent months. Spanberger has declared her opposition to a full repeal of the statue, which prevents unions from requiring workers to join as a condition for employment, but voiced openness to reform the law. Republicans, on the other hand, staunchly defend what they see as a business-friendly, job-creator statute.
• Reverse Coattails – In the latest weeks of the campaign, the race has been rocked by the surface of a slew of violent texts sent by Democratic Attorney General Candidate Jay Jones addressed to Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert and his family. Jones’s position in public polls against incumbent Republican Jason Miyares has deteriorated following the scandal, and Earle-Sears is trying to playing up the issue calling Spanberger of not withdrawing her endorsement. While down-ballot races rarely disproportionately affect candidates on top of the ticket, it is still worth keeping an eye on

Virginia’s Demographics

Virginia’s demographics make it a blue-leaning but still gives Republicans some hope to win statewide offices and be competitive under favorable environments. Kamala Harris carried the state by 5.8% after Biden won it 10 points in 2020, while in 2021 Republican Glenn Youngkin was elected Governor defeating Democratic opponent Terry McAuliffe by 1.9% or 64,000 votes. Low approval ratings for sitting President Joe Biden helped the GOP win every statewide race on the ballot: Winsome Earle-Sears won the Lieutenant Gubernatorial election by 1.5%, or 50,000 votes.

Although the Commonwealth is Whiter and less Hispanic than the U.S. as a whole, it is home to a significant share of Black and Asian voters and its suburbs are quickly becoming more and more diverse. As a results of significant population growth in diverse areas, the share of White residents dropped 4% statewide compared to 2012, the last time the state was considered a competitive swing state in presidential elections, while Asian and Hispanic now make up a bigger portion of its residents after a massive expansion in Northern Virginia (NoVA).

The State is significantly more educated and richer than the nation: it registered a median household income of $91,000, and 41.5% of its residents are college graduates. These are important features that align it more with the Democratic Party since the liberal base is becoming increasingly wealthier and more educated.

Youngkin’s 2021 Victory: A Hard Playbook to Follow for Earle-Sears

The key to the November election will be whether Earle-Sears can replicate her and Youngkin’s 2021 performance in what has become a reliably blue state in a federal election, despite the fact that the candidates and the national environment are quite different from four years ago. In 2021, an unpopular President and a country still grappled by COVID helped a more traditional Republican like Youngkin eke out a narrow win, but now the burden of the White House incumbency falls on Earle-Sears, who is running to the right of the Governor against a moderate Democrat that won three times a suburban competitive district in Northern Virginia.

Four years ago, Youngkin ran ahead of Donald Trump in every Virginia’s major region of interest compared both to the 2020 and 2024 presidential election. He outperformed the most in metropolitan and suburban areas and suburbs, while the gap to the President was narrower in both rural and high-diversity counties in the DC Metropolitan Area, underscoring Trump’s solid showings with White voters outside urban regions and his inroads into minorities, specifically Asians and Hispanics.

Regions of interest

DC Area (Arlington, Loudon, Fairfax, Prince William County)

• Features – Once a GOP-leaning region, the DC Area has underwent a major population growth and diversification that radically changed its politics. Since 2012, its White population decreased by a remarkable 13%, – more than three times as much as the Commonwealth as a whole – while the share of minorities skyrocketed, with 16% of residents being Hispanic and 18% Asian. The diversification and fast expansion of suburbs coupled with Democratic inroads into college-educated and wealthy voters – more than 60% of DC Area residents hold a college degree and, with a MHI of $150,000, the area ranks as of the wealthiest in the US– has turned the region into a liberal stronghold.
• How Youngkin won – Despite their high partisan leaning, these four counties and the independent cities inside them, from Alexandria to Falls Church, play a decisive role in Virginia elections. The DC Area was critical for Youngkin victory: his more traditional character and appealing to suburban voters helped him outperform Trump by 12 points compared to the 2020 presidential race. Trump himself made momentous gains among Asian and Hispanic voters in 2024, shifting the region 8 points to the right compared to 4 years earlier. Still, last November Trump still lost around 150K more votes to Harris than Youngkin did do McAuliffe, as the current Governor dramatically reduced GOP losses in terms of raw votes in 2021.
• What to watch on Election Night – The area made up almost 30% of the electorate in 2021, which means even little variations in margins or turnout could be decisive. It’s an open question whether Earle-Sears can replicate Trump’s inroads into minorities and low-propensity voter, who may be less prone to cast a ballot in off-year contests and at the same time tend to approve less of the President Trump according to multiple polls. Spanberger’s moderate record and the region’s geographical proximity to her former district, which encompassed parts of Prince William Count, may boost her chances, also considering that some of Earle-Sears’ more conservative positions may alienate a number suburban voters. In 2021, when she won the Lieutenant Governorship, Earle-Sears ran behind Youngkin by a marginal 0.6%, but in a close election, even minor shifts may be decisive. On election night, check out these counties for a preliminary idea of how the race is heading: in 2021, Youngkin won the governorship by just 65,000 votes, therefore even a minor slip in the DC Area may be lethal for the GOP is Earle-Sears can’t pick up ground elsewhere.

Northern Virginia (NoVA)

• Features – The rest of the Northern Virginia, considered excluding the immediate surrounding of DC, maintains suburban features when it comes to educational attainment – around 35% of the population attended college, in line the with the national average – and a relatively high Median Household Income – $110,000. Yet, its ethnical makeup is significantly different compared to the DC Area: the region is home to a remarkably smaller share of Hispanic (13%) and Asian (2%) residents, while in the last ten years, White population decreased by “only” 9.5%. Overall, the higher share of White voters make the area Republican-leaning despite of recent Democratic inroads.
• How Youngkin won – Fewer minority voters coupled with above-than-average educational attainment and income levels resulted in the region shifting only 2% to the right in 2024 compared to the previous presidential election. Unlike Trump, Youngkin was extremely strong in the area, outperforming the President by 10% considering last November elections. The Governor won the region by a 23-point margin in 2021, but netted only a 10K raw votes gain compared to Trump, as the area is remarkably less populous that the Arlington-Prince William-Loudon-Fairfax County region.
• What to watch on Election Night – Much of the region encompasses Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, which Spanberger won three times by a 2-point margin, the first of which came defeating a Republican incumbent. Furthermore, as Earle-Sears tacks to the right of Youngkin on some social issues, she may lose appeal in suburban regions like this region that are becoming more and more democratic – in 2021, she was outperformed by 0.75%  by Youngkin. On election night, keep tabs on Stafford and Spotsylvania County: the two most populous and suburban counties in the area, where Spanberger should aim to narrow the gap to Earle-Sears.

Richmond Metro Area

• Features – A suburban region with a percentage of college graduates and MHI above than the US average, respectively 40% and $90,000, as well as a huge share of Black – 25% -, the Richmond Metro Area is an important target for new liberal gains as last November it shifted right only by 1% compared to 2020, while Virginia as a whole trended 4.3% in Trump’s favor
• How Youngkin won – The president’s inroads into minorities were not enough to eat into Democrats’ advantage with Black voters, and his weaknesses in suburbia were clear looking at Youngkin’s outperformance. The Governor ran ahead of Trump by 11 points, losing the region by only a handful of votes. On the other hand, Trump lost the Richmond Metro by a margin of almost 100,000 ballots, a net difference to Youngkin of roughly 85K votes that was critical for the Governor’s success four years ago.
• What to watch on Election Night – Earle-Sears’s showing among Black voters will be critical in the region, in particular as Spanberger is expected to be a formidable adversary in the suburbs. In 2021, Earle-Spears did 0.45% worse than Youngkin in the region, but outperformed the Governor in areas where Blacks make up more than 40% of residents (Petersburg, Hopewell, Charles City County). On election night, look at these regions for a preliminary understanding of whether the GOP can offset any Democratic gain in Richmond suburbs.

Black Belt

• Features – Part of Virginia Southside, the Black Belt is rural region with exceptionally low levels of MHI – $60,000 – and Educational Attainment. Black residents make up 35% of the residents in an area where less than 20% of the population holds a college degree, making it fertile ground for Trump given his inroads with rural voters and minorities.
• How Youngkin won – The region’s dynamics resemble those of the DC Area: Trump gains into rural, Black voters resulted in a 7-point rightward swing from 2020 to 2024, which means the difference between Youngkin outperformance compared to 2024 Trump numbers is limited to 6 point, smaller than the statewide 8% difference. This, coupled with extremely low turnout in an off-year election, meant that Youngkin’s raw vote margin over McAuliffe was extremely similar to Trump’s over Harris.
• What to watch on Election Night – Even despite Spanberger’s focus on the cost of living and GOP cuts on Medicaid, which should disproportionately affect rural, low-income voters, the MAGA movement seems to maintain a firm grip on these constituencies. A more conservative candidate like Earle-Sears may make life more difficult in the region for a moderate Democrat, even considered her appealing to Black voters, which resulted in Youngkin outperforming her by just 0.25%. Turnout will be crucial: the GOP will need to run up as many votes as possible in a region that cast 30% more ballots in 2024 than it did in 2021.

Norfolk Metro

• Features – Norfolk Metro Area’s demographic makeup is extremely similar to Richmond’s: Blacks make up 28% of its population, compared to Richmond’s 25%,  Hispanics 7% and Asian 4%, exactly like the neighborhood metropolitan region. They have a very similar Median Household income -$85,000 – while Norfolk’s share of residents with a college degree is quite smaller: 35% compared to Richmond’s 40%. The two areas also have similar partisan leanings: both voted for Biden by 15% in 2020 and for McAuliffe by just 3% in 2021. Trump shifted Norfolk right by 3 points in 2024, 2 more than Richmond.
• How Youngkin won – Youngkin’s strength in suburbs gained him a 9-point outperformance over Donald Trump, which translated into a 85,000K fewer votes lost to his opponent than the President. Aggregating the DC, Richmond and Norfolk metro Areas, Youngkin narrowed his raw votes gap to his Democratic adversary by more than 300K votes compared to Trump: slightly more than 2024 Harris margin of victory of 260K ballots.
• What to watch on Election Night – Norfolk was the only region where Earle-Sears outperformed Youngkin in 2021, running ahead of him by 0.4%. The GOP candidate may be stronger among Black voters and better positioned in lower educated suburbs, where Youngkin drove his victory. Spanberger’s target will be running closer to Harris margins in the area as well as driving turnout in the region on McAuliffe showing as well driving turnout: in 2024, the region cast 39% more ballots than it did in the off-year contest of 2021.

Southwest Virginia (SWVA)

• Features – Southwest Virginia (SWVA) is the most MAGA-friendly region in Virginia. It is 85% White, only 1-in-4 of its residents hold a college degree, and registers a Median Household Income of roughly $60,000 – well below the national average of $79,000. These features render the areas heavily Republican: it voted for Trump by 35 and 37 points respectively in 2020 and 2024, shifted only 2% rightward between the two presidential cycles.
• How Youngkin won – It unsurprising that someone like Governor Youngkin outperformed Trump by smaller margins in the region. In 2021, he ran ahead of the President by 7 points compared to 2024, a smaller difference than the state as whole (Youngkin +8). Lower turnout in 2021 and such a narrow difference resulted in SWVA being the only region where Trump raw vote margin over Harris was bigger by around 30K voters compared to Youngkin.
• What to watch on Election Night – A more conservative candidate should, on paper, be better positioned than Youngkin in the region, but Earle-Sears has struggled in the region in 2021, when she ran behind Youngkin by 1.1%, the biggest difference in the whole state. On election night, the region will provide insight on whether Earle-Sears is able to make inroads into rural White voters or Spanberger can eat into the GOP margins among these voters. Turnout will be crucial as well, given that low-income, non-college educated vets are the most likely to sit out off-year elections. In 2024, the areas cast 37% more votes than in 2021.

Polls and Conclusions

With Democrats holding a sizable advantage with high-propensity voters, particularly in a blue state like Virginia under an unpopular Republican President, it is not a surprise that Spanberger currently holds a 6-point lead over Earle-Sears according to the DDHQ polling average, though the margin shrunk compared to the summer, when the Republican candidate trailed by double digits. Although the political environment is always susceptible to possible changes, the 90% chance of winning Polymarket gives Spanberger makes it certainly looks like it would take a major comeback and coalition expansion for the Republican nominee to pull out an upset come November.