House Ratings Update: Nine House Races Shift Towards Democrats

With our recent Presidential and Senate ratings changes released, we’re down to only one set of races that hasn’t been updated yet: the House of Representatives. In today’s update, we’re shifting nine House races, taking several off the board entirely while shifting a few new ones into the spotlight. All of these changes favor the Democratic Party.

Ratings Changes

• Alabama-02: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
• California-40: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
• Georgia-02: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
• Iowa-01: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
• Nebraska-02: Tossup to Leans Democratic
• New Jersey-05: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
• Nevada-03: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
• New Mexico-01: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
• Tennessee-05: Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Let’s start with the easy ones. We’re shifting Alabama’s 2nd district and Georgia’s 2nd district – two majority-black, but somewhat marginal – seats – back to the Safe Democratic column. While there’s reason to suspect Kamala Harris still isn’t reaching 2020 or 2016-level support from black voters, she seems to be out of the utter nadir that Joe Biden was in. We’re also moving seats in New Jersey (NJ-05) and New Mexico (NM-01) from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic for similar reasons; the national climate simply isn’t there.

In Nevada, we’re moving Susie Lee’s 3rd district back to the Likely Democratic column; Republicans don’t appear to be seriously contesting any race in Nevada other than the Presidential one at this point. We’re also moving Nebraska’s 2nd district from Tossup to Leans Democratic. This race has received an extensive amount of high-quality polling; most recently, the New York Times showed Democratic challenger Tony Vargas up by three. With Harris set to carry this district by a wide margin, we’re inclined to believe incumbent Republican Don Bacon is simply facing headwinds too strong to overcome.

On the Republican side, we’re shifting California’s 40th district and Iowa’s 1st district from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Polling and spending in both races indicate that both parties are taking these seats seriously. While we’re still inclined to favor incumbents Young Kim and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, it’s clear they’re both in more competitive races than we expected at this point.

Finally, we’re shifting Tennessee’s 5th district from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. This newly-gerrymandered district was intended to be a Republican stronghold, but the legislature bizarrely included all of the furthest-left trending parts of the Nashville suburbs. Mitt Romney would have won it by 22 points in 2012, while Donald Trump would only have carried it by 11 points in 2020. This might not be a huge problem until later in the decade. However, first-term Rep. Andy Ogles – a firebrand member of the far-right Freedom Caucus – had not faced scrutiny over his exaggerated educational record, and was subject to an FBI raid just a few months ago. We don’t expect Ogles to lose, but we would not be surprised if this race turns out to be closer than expected.

Current Ratings