Senate Ratings Update: Republicans Favored to Flip Senate, Democrats Gain Ground in Arizona, Nevada

Yesterday, we launched an update for our Presidential ratings. Today, we’re launching a long-awaited update to our Senate ratings – and it’s an important one. For the first time this cycle, we have Republicans favored to win control of the Senate.

Ratings Changes

• Arizona: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
• Montana: Tossup to Leans Republican
• Nevada: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic

The most consequential change we’re making this week comes in Montana, which we are finally moving from Tossup to Leans Republican. We’ve given incumbent Democrat Jon Tester the benefit of the doubt, but the state of his campaign appears dire. Republican Tim Sheehy, who has proven to be perhaps the best Republican recruit this cycle, has led in nine of the last ten polls. In the last six overall, Tester’s best total is 45%. Sheehy, meanwhile, is consistently polling at or above 50%.

There’s not really any way to look at these numbers and find anything good for Tester. As an incumbent, he hasn’t polled at 50% in any poll this entire campaign. It would take a massive polling error for him to win; we don’t think this is likely. We’re moving the race to Leans Republican – and with that, we now expect Republicans to win at least 51 Senate seats. This means that, even if they lose the Presidential election, we expect the Senate to flip to Republican control.

We’re also shifting Arizona and Nevada’s Senate contests from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. Both of these ultimately come down to candidate quality, or lack thereof. In Arizona, failed gubernatorial candidate and current election conspiracy theorist Kari Lake has run perhaps the worst Senate campaign in the nation. She has not led a single poll since a July internal. In the 32 polls since the primary, she has not led a single one. She currently trails by around 8% in the DDHQ/The Hill polling average. It seems clear that Lake is underperforming Trump badly; she’s likely to lose, and by a lot.

Nevada is a slightly different story; Republican Sam Brown trails first-term incumbent Jacky Rosen by around 8 points in the DDHQ/The Hill average. Brown actually hasn’t led a single poll this entire cycle. Unlike most subpar Republican candidates, Brown isn’t a conspiracy theorist, and isn’t running an ideologically extreme campaign. Instead, it appears he’s just a traditionally bad candidate running against a popular incumbent.

States We’re Watching

Democratic plays in Florida and Texas

With Montana increasingly out of play, national Democrats are somewhat desperately searching for other options. The two most obvious targets are Florida and Texas – two states that Donald Trump won by less than 6% in the last election. Like the Presidential races in both states, we currently have both Senate races at Likely Republican.

In Florida, Democrats hoped that former one-term wave baby congresswoman would be able to run a competitive race against incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott. On paper, this makes sense; Scott is notorious for winning races by margins at or below 1%. This time, however, things appear different. In the DDHQ/The Hill average, Scott currently leads by around three points, a nearly identical margin to Trump. Mucarsel-Powell is mired in the low-to-mid 40s, and it doesn’t appear likely voters split their tickets.

The more promising state of the two is probably Texas, where Democrats have a solid recruit in congressman Colin Allred. Incumbent Republican Ted Cruz isn’t popular, but he also doesn’t appear to be in much trouble. While Cruz’s lead in the DDHQ/The Hill average is roughly half that of Trump’s, polls show Allred running even with Harris in vote share. In other words: the difference in polling is almost entirely from Trump voters. Allred isn’t showing an ability to win crossover voters.

Brown holds on in Ohio – but for how long?

The most competitive state left on the board is definitely Ohio. It’s our only remaining Tossup, and winning it would provide a buffer against an upset in Florida or Texas, as well as a more manageable 52-seat majority. However, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown is holding on well in polling. Brown currently leads Republican nominee Bernie Moreno by around two points in the DDHQ/The Hill polling average.

Moreno has been a subpar nominee this entire cycle, but the fact he hasn’t been able to surpass Brown at this point has to be concerning for Republicans. While Brown is ahead in polls at the moment, he’s not hitting the 50% threshold. Instead, he’s usually landing in the mid-to-high 40s. This is probably the most positive sign for Republicans. But Moreno is increasingly running out of time to consolidate the vote. For comparison, early October is around the time that fellow Ohio underperformer JD Vance began to lead in polls last cycle. If Moreno’s numbers don’t improve soon, it’s quite possible that Brown will survive to win another term.

The Nebraska Mirage

One state we’re not shifting is Nebraska. Some buzz has emerged recently in the state’s regular Senate election, where incumbent Republican Deb Fischer is facing Democratic-backed independent Dan Osborn. Osborn has funded a lot of polls for his candidacy, and they show him in a pretty good spot. However, their quality leaves a lot to be desired. The highest-quality independent statewide poll so far, a SurveyUSA poll from our friends at Split Ticket, showed Osborn down by one point, but only polling at 38%.

The most damning poll for Osborn’s campaign, though, has come from New York Times, which polled just the 2nd district. It showed Osborn leading Fischer by 11 points, only two points greater than Harris’s margin. That’s simply not enough to render the state competitive. In order to win the state, Osborn would need to run at least 15-20 points ahead of Harris statewide.

In our opinion, this is clearly a state primed to be a mirage – that is, a state that appears competitive for a time, but that ends up finishing with an uncompetitive margin. Specifically, this race calls to mind races like Kansas 2014 (where independent Greg Orman led for most of the cycle, only to lose by 11%) and Alaska 2020 (where highly-touted independent Al Gross lost by nearly 13 percentage points). We do expect Osborn to make this race closer than the concurrent special Senate election. But like in Maryland – another Senate race on the fringe of competitiveness – we simply don’t think this race is genuinely competitive. We’re keeping it at Safe Republican.