The mostly static 2024 presidential race got an unexpected jolt to its debate schedule recently. On May 15, Joe Biden proposed that the candidates drop the traditional debate format and hold two debates sponsored by CNN and ABC News, respectively. Donald Trump accepted those terms on the same day. Much to the chagrin of the debate commission, a new approach to presidential debates for 2024 was established in the span of a few hours.
In addition to this arrangement being unprecedented, the new debate schedule also creates a new variable in the form of the June debate. There has never been a presidential debate so early in the campaign. In every other election, debates are held in the closing stretch of the campaign after the conventions. Every cycle since 1987 had its first debate in either late September or early October. By that point, most voters are familiar with platforms and programs and want to see the candidates engage on those points against their opponent.
The debate is a gamble
But this campaign is unique. There will be a presidential rematch for the first time since 1956. Both candidates have locked up their nominations and are widely known by the American public. Their positions are established along with their personalities. As a result, the debates will not be “introducing” Americans to anything.
Instead, the June debate is a gamble by Joe Biden that he can create a new narrative for the race. One debate will not win him the presidency, of course. But Biden may be able to push voters to give his candidacy a second look. Hopefully, a strong debate performance would push voters to take a different view of strong economic indicators and decreased border crossings. They may finally assuage voter concerns about the president’s age and infirmity. A recent poll reported that even among his 2020 voters, 61 percent said “they thought he was ‘just too old’ to be an effective president.” One evening of sparring with his opponents may be the spark that this campaign needs to finally reverse the lead that Trump has been building in polls for the past six months.
The debate’s timing also presents a potential hazard for the Biden campaign. In normal election years, the debates occur much too late in the process to provoke a challenge to the ticket. If Biden fails at a debate held in June, there will be a renewed push to find another candidate prior to the August convention. That argument has the potential to shatter whatever cohesion the Democratic Party currently has. It is a likely outcome as well. For all his obvious flaws, Trump’s brash approach and constant lying has caught many opponents off-guard, and Biden would not be the first candidate to under-perform in a debate against him.
Biden’s reelection campaign will not be won or lost on the debate stage. But with a strong performance in June, he has the potential to change the narrative of the race and begin to win back goodwill among the electorate. Ideas like the June debate are necessary if Biden hopes to overcome his substantial deficits and change the way the media talks about his campaign. For Biden’s sake, this will be the first of many surprising revelations in the 2024 campaign.
