Steady your nerves, election nerds, because it’s by-election time in the U.K. and it’s going to be a big one.
Background
As I established in my previous article on the local elections in the U.K, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is not very popular with large swathes of the electorate. That’s not to say he doesn’t have his supporters, but some of his allies believe he’s not going to help the party’s dwindling popularity. Unfortunately for Labour, there seem to be no potential leaders who could step up to the plate…
Except one. Enter Andy Burnham. Former MP for Leigh, current Mayor of Manchester and ‘King of the North.’ He’s generally quite popular, at least within Labour, and is thus considered the only potential successor to Starmer.
The problem is that Burnham is not an MP, which means that he cannot be leader. One opportunity arose when Andrew Gwynne, MP for Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester, stepped down in January of this year. Burnham hoped to be the candidate, but Labour’s National Executive Committee controversially blocked the appointment. Labour ended up coming third behind Green and Reform.
There was talk of an MP standing down to give Burnham his or her seat, and that plan accelerated after the poor by-election results. A week after the elections, Josh Simons, MP for Makerfield in Greater Manchester, announced his resignation in order to make way for Burnham. This time, Burnham was allowed to stand.
The election will take place on the 18th June, the earliest possible date under electoral rules. As with all British elections, it will take place on a Thursday.
Candidates (in alphabetical order)
- Jake Austin (Liberal Democrats)
Jake Austin is a councillor for the Hazel Grove ward in Stockport and works as a fundraiser. He ran for Mayor of Manchester in 2024, coming sixth overall (the fifth placed candidate was Hannah Spencer, who now represents Gorton and Denton).
- Count Binface (Count Binface Party)
Count Binface is a perennial election candidate, having run against Prime Ministers and in London Mayoral elections. For Americans, think of Vermin Supreme. His policies are often jokey in nature. The Count’s real name is John David Harvey.
- Andy Burnham (Labour)
Andy Burnham is currently Mayor of Greater Manchester and was MP for Leigh between 2001 and 2017, not contesting the latter election in order to run for the mayoralty. Burnham is considered to be on the soft left or centre of the party. He ran for the party’s leadership in both 2010 and 2015, coming fourth in the former and second in the latter. As Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham’s chief policy has been transport.
- Dan Clarke (Libertarian)
Dan Clarke is the Libertarian candidate. Unlike America, where Libertarians have more of a sustained presence, the party is rather minor in the U.K. Clarke ran in the Gorton and Denton by-election, coming ninth out of eleven possible candidates.
- John Alfred Dyer (Independent)
John Dyer is running as an Independent candidate.
- Ed Gemmell (Climate)
Ed Gemmell is running as a member of the minor Climate Party. He is a councillor for Hazlemere, Buckinghamshire and ran in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, coming fifth out of seven.
- Paul Richard Gould (Independent)
Paul Richard Gould is running as an Independent candidate.
- Alan ‘Howlin’ Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party)
Alan ‘Howlin’ Laud Hope is running for the Monster Raving Loony Party. Real name Alan, he is the leader of the party, having taken over after the 1999 death of Screaming Lord Sutch. He has run in thirty-four parliamentary elections and several for local council. The party often runs in safe seats and in important elections.
- Robert Kenyon (Reform)
Robert Kenyon is the Reform candidate and native of the area. A plumber by trade, he was recently voted in as councillor for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North. He also ran for the parliamentary seat in 2024, coming second to Simons.
- Robert Neill Pownall (Independent)
Robert Neill Pownall is running as an Independent. He is a wildlife rights activist who ran for a recent MSP seat dressed as a gannet.
- Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain)
Rebecca Shepherd is running as Restore Britain’s candidate. She is a local businesswoman and supports SEND (Special Educational Needs and Disabilities).
- Sarah Wakefield (Green)
Sarah Wakefield is the Green Candidate. She is a charity director and Councillor for Deansgate on the Manchester City Council. The first candidate, nurse Chris Kennedy, was dropped for comments made on social media.
- Peter Ward (Rejoin EU)
Peter Ward is running as the Rejoin EU candidate. He is a barrister.
- Michael Winstanley (Conservatives)
Michael Winstanley is running for the Conservatives. He has run for three Greater Manchester seats previously, including Makerfield, was a councillor for Orrell on Wigan Council and Mayor of Wigan.
Makerfield
Makerfield is in Wigan, Greater Manchester, just over twenty-six miles west of Manchester. It is 97% ethnic white, has a lower-than-average household income and house price than the rest of the country. 65% voted Leave in the EU Referendum in 2016. The area is mainly industrial in employment.
In the May local council elections, all eleven seats within Makerfield went to Reform.
The constituency has been Labour ever since it was created in 1983. Simons won the 2024 election with 18,202 votes, which was 5,399 more than Reform in second place.
Issues
The cost of living is an extremely important issue not just in Makerfield, but across the country. Recent news that the energy price cap is rising 13% has not been welcomed. Petrol is also expensive and groceries are going up also. Makerfield is about average on the deprivation index, but is surely feeling the pinch like everywhere else.
Immigration is a subject that is particularly of interest, especially since Labour (and the Tories) have been criticised for it. Though recent figures have shown that net immigration is down, critics point out that’s because people emigrating is balancing it out. Sharp demographic changes have been noticed even in less diverse areas like Makerfield, and recent statistics show that White Britons, historically a vast majority, make up just over half of all births, and that the share of babies born to at least one immigrant parent in England and Wales is at 40%. Critics point to the ‘Boriswave,’ a massive surge of non-EU migrants that followed Brexit.
The subject of Gaza was particularly important in Gorton and Denton, as the constituency has a large Muslim population. This is not the case in Makerfield, where the vast majority are not Muslim.
Chances
Polling shows it’s a showdown between Labour and Reform. Andy Burnham is Labour’s most popular politician according to polling and has a high name recognition. In a seat where Labour has prospered for over forty years but is worried about losing, Burnham is probably the only candidate who could swing it for them. The keyword there is ‘could.’ Reform swept the locals only a few weeks ago, a key indicator of a potential win. They are likely helped by the fact that the Greens have chosen to field a candidate, as some wanted them to withdraw in order to help Burnham and stop Reform. Candidate Robert Kenyon has made some controversial comments on a number of things, and that is what his rivals are shining a spotlight on. Whilst the Greens did well in Gorton and Denton, this is not a seat they can hope to win, especially as the Lib Dems have done better than them in past parliamentary elections.
What Happens Next?
The election is on the 18th June, and results will be known early in the morning the next day.
If Labour wins, there’s an almost certain chance that Burnham will challenge Starmer for the leadership, and probably beat him. This will signal a change for Labour, both electorally and policy-wise. He would certainly shuffle the cabinet. The question remains as to whether he’d be a help or hindrance to Labour.
If Reform wins, then they’ve sent a message to Starmer that no Labour seat is safe. It would be a great victory for them and signal that the local elections weren’t a fluke.
Other parties could of course win, but it’s unlikely. The Conservatives would probably do anything for a victory like this, Green would take it as proof they’re really here to stay and the Lib Dems certainly wouldn’t mind either.
Let’s just wait until the 18th June.
