After analyzing all the incumbents getting primary challengers from the outside, this article is going to take a look at the few incumbent v incumbent matchups, as well as the many primaries in open seats in both chambers. We’ll kick things off on the House side for the Democrats and go from there.
House of Delegate Primaries: Democrats
- HD-2, Adele McClure V Kevin Saucedo-Broach: This one doesn’t take that many words. McClure is a significant favorite with advantages in funding, endorsements and name recognition. It’s very hard for me to see a scenario where she doesn’t win this primary and thusly the general (where she’s unlikely to get an opponent) for this safely Democratic seat in Arlington.
- HD-7, Mary Barthelson V Paul Berry V Shyamali Hauth V Karen Keys-Gamarra: After long time delegate Ken Plum retired in early March, it opened up a primary for one of the bluer seats in an already deep blue Fairfax County. Four candidates will be on the ballot on June 20th, with community activists, a teacher and a current County school board member all in the running. One of those activists, Mary Barthelson, is behind the rest of the pack in terms of fundraising and local support. The other three are more interesting. As is the case in these districts, all candidates are trying to prove they are the most left wing. Of the three, Keys-Gamarra seems to be running closest to the center, with Hauth and Berry both highlighting endorsements from individuals who would be considered more to the left wing of the Democratic party. One of Berry’s big endorsements is Delegate Elizabeth Guzman, while Hauth has highlighted an endorsement from Progressive blog Blue Virginia in recent days. While Keys-Gamarra highlights key endorsements from Loudoun County BOS Chair Phyllis Randall and Fairfax State Senator Dave Marsden. It should be mentioned that Keys-Gamarra had a scandal in the fall; She was caught on a hot mic calling an area parent the R-word that she was forced to apologize for. I think the edge here is to Hauth, but Berry and Keys-Gamarra both have open chances here as well. I don’t see much of an opportunity for Barthelson at this moment.
- HD-15, Laura Cohen V Henr’i Thompson V Eric Schmidt: This one also won’t take many words. Current Springfield District School Board member Laura Cohen drew her two challengers late, but that doesn’t seem to be stopping her rolling train. Her early entry allowed her to gain massive advantages over her opponents in cash and name recognition, the latter of which she already had a boost in as a school board member. If one of her opponents could make some noise here late it’s Thompson, who has connections to the areas teacher unions. But it’s hard for me to see that happening at this point. I consider Cohen a pretty clear favorite in this primary.
- HD-19, Rozia Henson V Makya Little V Natalie Shorter: This new seat, which draws in parts of Prince William and Fairfax, holds one of the more intriguing Democratic primaries in the NOVA area. All three candidates hold backgrounds that would intrigue parts of the Democratic base. Rozia Henson is a local party official, who would be the first gay black man elected in Virginia if he wins this primary. Makya Little is a former FBI employee who has ties to both Fairfax and Prince William. While Natalie Shorter comes from a long line of public servants- her grandmother is State Senator Louise Lucas. In terms of fundraising and noise, both Little and Henson have advantages over Shorter, who got in later in the process compared to the other two. Little has rocked the fundraising game so far, lapping Shorter and to a lesser extent Henson. Henson however, does have higher standing with the on the ground activists, but Little has endorsements from across the left wing spectrum. I think the momentum is far enough behind Little that she’s a clear, but not runaway favorite in this primary.
- HD-26, Kannan Srinivasan V Sreedhar Nagireddi V Sirisha Kompalli: This is a race that was looking to be a wide open primary at first. However, some local party meddling saw Kannan Srinivasan move to this seat from HD-27, avoiding a much harder primary there. Instead, even with two challengers, the field is mostly Srinivasan. He’s got a lot of money behind him as well as party support because of his move in seats. Sreedhar Nagireddi could still make some noise here; he raised decent money on limited time and an endorsement from Delegate Sam Rasoul should boost his numbers among more progressive primary voters, but like in HD-19, fundraising and party support advantages just favor one candidate too much here. This is Srinivasan’s to lose, and it would be a big upset if he does.
- HD-54, Dave Norris V Katrina Callsen V Bellamy Brown: With Sally Hudson primarying Creigh Deeds, the deep blue Charlottesville seat in the House has opened up. As is with areas like these, the primary is the election to watch. While this race has three candidates, I expect this to be a two horse race. Katrina Callsen, a current member of the Abelmarle County School Board and Dave Norris, the former Mayor of Charlottesville are clearly ahead of Brown. And while Callsen has a big advantage in money, Norris has a huge advantage in name recognition from the city of Charlottesville. It will definitely still be a close race between the two- the money Callsen has raised will allow her to close the name recognition gap on Norris. Callsen also has support from Clean Virginia and Sonjia Smith, who’s money may end up being the x-factor here. In the end here though, I think Norris’s time as mayor of Charlottesville gives him just a slight edge here. But I wouldn’t be surprised at all by a Callsen win in this primary. It should be mentioned that a Sally Hudson endorsement could matter here more than it would anywhere else. This seat is mostly the old 57th district that she represented. If she endorses a candidate, it would be a huge boost for them.
- HD-55, Amy Laufer V Kellen Squire: This is a primary that could end up being the closest one of them all on June 20th. Both Laufer and Squire have above average fundraising numbers and have racked up endorsements. Squire has taken the more progressive wing here- hyping his large base of small donors, one of the largest in Virginia and his want to reform Virginia’s campaign finance system. Laufer is still progressive, albeit slightly less so than Squire, and has key institutional support from individuals like State Senators Scott Surovell and Louise Lucas. Laufer is focusing heavily on abortion as her key issue, with nods to environmental issues. There are going to be other factors here, and Squire’s band of door knocking activists that he has gives him a boost against the slight monetary advantage Laufer has. However, I think Laufer is still a small favorite in this primary here. I think her run in 2019 in Bryce Reeves gives her a name recognition boost, and the institutional support she has may drag her over. I would not count out Squire at all here though. Like I said, I think this may end up being the closest race of the June 20th primaries.
- HD-57, Bob Shippee V Susanna Gibson: Very rarely do we see Democratic Party primaries in competitive seats these days. In recent years Democrats have been very good at clearing the field for one candidate in these type of races. However, that is not the case in the newly drawn 57th, one of five tossup seats in the House of Delegates in our ratings. Bob Shippee and Susanna Gibson, both political newcomers, are dead even in fundraising. Shippee, a businessman and volunteer activist for numerous left wing organizations, has taken the farther left side in this primary, which is clear from his endorsement. Gibson, a nurse practitioner, has taken a more centrist stand on some issues, but also has connections to the progressive win of the Democratic Party. Both are running heavily on abortion, but Gibson has taken a more state level eye on her politics, mentioning senior advocacy and mental health, while Shippee is focusing heavily on national issues. This is probably the hardest race to pick a favorite for me. I’m going to go with Gibson, just because of the institutional support she has. But this is a primary race that could go either way.
- HD-79, Rae Cousins V Ann Lambert V Richard Walker: A race that’s potentially more interesting then it looks on the surface for this new Richmond City based seat, but also maybe not. I don’t want to overthink too much here. Rae Cousins, a lawyer, has a significant monetary advantage over her two opponents. It is big enough that it would make it easy for me to declare her a big favorite. However, I’m not sure of that yet. One of her opponents, Ann Lambert, is a city councilwomen, and while Lambert had a disappointing quarter of fundraising, in the Richmond area that’s not all that matters. Richmond primary voters have been kinder to insiders then other areas around Virginia, and in this race its no different. Lambert may also benefit from the third candidate Richard Walker potentially stealing some votes from Cousins, as both are running in the progressive lane. However, I can’t ignore Cousins huge advantage in fundraising, and I think she’s the current favorite until proven otherwise.
- HD-80, Destiny Bolling V John Dantzler: This is an easy one. While on the surface Dantzler has an early fundraising advantage, the 31,000 dollars raised by Bolling happened in only three days. She’s the favorite of the intuitions in Henrico and the party. This is Lamont Bagby’s old seat, and considering that Dantzler tried to primary him in 2021, I doubt he won’t back Bolling. With those two pieces of information in mind, Bolling is a clear and obvious favorite here.
- HD-82: Kimberly Pope Adams V Victor McKenzie: This is another relatively easy one. Adams, while she has decent fundraising, nearly quit the race a month ago. After being talked out of it, she’s still in the race. That does not exude confidence in her ability to win a primary though. On top of that, Victor McKenzie is the clear favorite of the Democratic Party. They want him to be the candidate in this crucial race. I’d be stunned if he isn’t after the votes are counted on June 20th.
- HD-84: Nadarius Clark V Michele Joyce: This is one of the more intriguing races this cycle. Clark gave up his current seat based in Norfolk, Chesapeake and Portsmouth to move to this seat after being drawn in with Minority Leader Don Scott. That move forced Clark to give up his current seat and his incumbency. This new seat, based around Suffolk and Franklin cities and parts of Isle of Wright County, does see him in a primary race. Michele Joyce, who was the candidate in the old 64th in 2019, is trying to give Clark a run for his money. However, she doesn’t seem to have garnered much momentum. While I expect Joyce to dominate the 5 Isle of Wright precincts in the seat, those only make up around 13% of the districts population. The more populous Suffolk is where this race will be won. I expect Clark to do much better in that portion of the district, and his huge advantage in fundraising will help introduce himself. I consider him a strong favorite in this primary.
- HD-92: Bonita Anthony V Kim Sudderth: Another primary I expect to be close, this one taking place in the Hampton Roads area. This brand new seat, based in parts of Norfolk and Chesapeake cities, is one of two new majority Black seats drawn in the area. Both candidates are all but even in fundraising, meaning that something will have to give to see one of the two candidates pick up an advantage. This race will be won in Norfolk, where both candidates are from. Sudderth is currently employed by the Norfolk Planning Commission, while Anthony was a 17 year employee at Old Dominion University, before recently transferring over to Virginia State University. What could drive this race is the primary for the 21st Senate district based entirely in Norfolk. Andria McClellan is supporting Sudderth, while Angelia Williams Graves is supporting Anthony. It’s really hard for me to pick out a favorite of the two- but at this moment I’d go with Sudderth. She’s being backed by more parts of the party institutions currently. An endorsement from Delegate Jackie Glass could end up being a crucial aspect of this race if Glass decides to endorse here. Glass represented around 70% of this district under the old lines. An endorsement from her for either candidate could push them over the edge in this primary race.
- HD-95, Alex Askew V Rick James: To cap off the Democratic races on the House side, we gave an easy one. Alex Askew will probably cream Rick James in this race. James, a perennial candidate at this point as he’s run for a delegate seat now five times, will not beat one of the Democratic Party’s favorites. Askew was favored to return to the House the moment this seat was drawn. I expect him to win this primary and then the general easily in this Safe Democratic Party seat.
House Republican Contests: Open and Incumbent v Incumbent
- HD-21, Josh Quill V John Stirrup: Kicking off the Republican contests, we have a primary in one of the most crucial seats this cycle. This Western Prince William seat is one of five current tossup seats we have on our board. The winner of this primary will go on to face Democrat Josh Thomas in the general. Fundraising numbers for these two candidates have been even, with Quill at a slight advantage thanks to the around 33,500 dollars he’s loaned his own campaign. Both candidates are running on similar issues: crime, education and the economy. It makes it hard to pick a true favorite. However, I’ve been told that Stirrup, the former Gainesville District Supervisor, which covers much of this district, is getting GOP caucus backing. That leads me to pick Stirrup as the slight favorite in this June 20th primary. This is a GOP race I expect to be one of the closest in the primary season though. Do not count out Josh Quill.
- HD-31, Delores Oates V Michelle Lane-Smithwick: This is a recent developing primary here. Oates, a current Warren county commissioner and long time party official, seemed to have this race wrapped up. However, the late entry of Michelle Lane-Smithwick means we’ll do a firehouse primary for the nomination on May 5th. Oates is still a heavy favorite here, having much more capital and institutional support to carry her over the line. I don’t think this ends up being particularly close and Oates should be the nominee here. Lane-Smithwick just got in too late, and also made a recent post on Facebook claiming President Biden has secretly declared war on Russia and China. Interesting candidate to say the least.
- HD-39, Will Davis V Ron Jefferson: This is another easy one. I fully expect Will Davis, a Franklin County lawyer who has much of the backing from the area party, to walk away with this one. Davis has big advantages in cash on hand, and the institutional backing helps him quite a lot too. Not completely impossible Jefferson would pull off an upset, but it’s very very hard to see it happening. I expect Davis to be the nominee once all the votes are counted on June 20th.
- HD-41, Lowell Bowman V Chris Obenshain: This race for what is currently a GOP favored seat, will probably end up sending its winner to Richmond. Bowman, who ran for the former 7th district, and Obenshain, a long time area party leader, both have raised sufficient money in this seat. Obenshain has an edge however, and a good portion of Bowman’s money are loans from himself. Obenshain also has a key endorsement from Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears in his pocket. That should be more than enough info on who’s the favorite. The May 4th convention is coming up, and I expect Obenshain to be the nominee afterwards.
- HD-47, Marie March v Wren Williams: The race everyone has their eyes on, I believe will end with a thud. This race has one clear favorite- and its not the highly controversial March. Left for dead by the party, it’s clear GOP leaders want Williams to advance. That’s been proven with how March’s fundraising has dried up and all endorsements have gone to Williams. Anything can happen on any given primary day, but Williams is significantly better equipped to run a primary race instead of a convention. I expect Williams to be a big winner on June 20th in this primary.
- HD-53, Tim Griffin V Sarah Mays: A May 6th convention in Bedford, with two candidates who are running for this seat. It’s a safe Republican seat, with the convention being the general in all but name. This is also a primary not without some controversy and some interesting statements. Sarah Mays has come out and said that she does not believe that President Biden won 2020 fairly, including the state of Virginia. She also recently tried to get Griffin kicked off the ballot for residency issues after he was found to be living in a friends garage. That effort failed. Griffin, who has not gone as far as Mays on the legitimacy of the 2020 election, has more institutional support. The current Bedford County sheriff, the Commonwealth Attorneys from Bedford and Amherst counties and current State Senator Mark Peake have all gotten behind Griffin. With the party controlled process in mind, I expect Griffin to have a huge advantage in the Bedford County portion and for that advantage to put him over the line to victory.
- HD-56, Kevin Bailey V Tom Garrett V Jennie Wood: This seat was John McGuire’s old seat, but with him running for the State Senate, it’s a wide open seat. The three way convention, that will take place on May 20th, features an unusual character. Tom Garrett, the former State Senator and 5th district Congressman from 2017-2019, who retired due to issues with alcoholism, is attempting a comeback here. While no one’s raised much money (Kevin Bailey’s fundraising lead is mostly from loans from himself), name recognition will be the name of the game. This race does seem to be between Garrett and Bailey, but I think the clear, but not overwhelming favorite is Garrett. The entire district is based in CD-05, and he has an endorsement from Bob Good. While he may not have the money yet, Garrett’s name recognition takes him over the line in the convention.
- HD-65, Lee Peters V Michael Kasey: It’s pretty clear where this one is headed. Peters, a law enforcement official, received 10,000 dollars from both Speaker Todd Gilbert and Majority Leader Terry Kilgore. It’s pretty clear who the party wants in this highly competitive seat. And in this race the party will get what it wants. I expect Peters to coast in the June 20th primary.
- HD-73, Mark Earley Jr V Yan Gleyzer V Ryan Harter: After Roxann Robinson retired to open this seat up in Chesterfield, it really opened the field. However, Earley Jr, the son of the former Attorney General, seems to be a clear favorite. Backed by endorsements from both Lt Governor Winsome Sears and AG Jason Miyares, it’s clear who the party wants to be the nominee. I won’t count out Ryan Harter yet, even with his weak fundraising numbers. He represents a good chunk of this district on the Chesterfield County School Board, and even in the face of Earley’s machine, that name recognition will help him. However, Earley is the favorite here and I expect him to come out on top in June.
- HD-84, Mike Dillender V Rod Thompson: An easy one in the GOP primary for this reach target. Dillender ran for most of this seat under the old 76th in 2021, and that run gives him high name recognition among GOP voters in the area. He’s a pretty clear favorite, and I’d be quite shocked if Rod Thompson even got within 10 of Dillender in this race.
- HD-89, Don Carey V Baxter Ennis V Jason Wooldridge: While there are three candidates in this race, this is really a two man race. This mostly Chesapeake City based district will be fought for by two Chesapeake city residents. Current councilman and former NFLer Don Carey and Baxter Ennis, who narrowly lost a race for a city council seat last year, are the two clear candidates in the convention taking place on May 6th. This is a battle of two guards, with Carey displaying endorsements from the Chesapeake County Sheriff and Commonwealth Attorney, along with former Governor Bob McDonnell. Ennis on the other hand is endorsed by the Mayor of Chesapeake City and former Congressman Randy Forbes. In the end, it may just come down to who gets more of their supporters to show up. In that regards, it may come down to who has the most money to run a turnout operation. That candidate is Carey, who has a decent sized cash advantage. I also think that would be the best for Republicans- I think Carey has significantly more upside as a candidate compared to Ennis.
- HD-94, Amy Chudzinski V Andrew Pittman V Ken O’Brien: This primary likely won’t end up mattering much- we have it rated as a Safe Democratic seat here. I won’t waste words here, but I think it’ll be one of either Chudzinski or Pittman out of this primary, with a slight edge to Pittman.
Democratic Open and Incumbent v Incumbent Senate Primaries
- SD-04, Luke Priddy V Trish White-Boyd V DA Pierce: With long time Senator John Edwards now retired, there’s a three way primary to take on Republican senator David Sutterlein. Whoever wins this primary will have a tall hill to climb against Sutterlein in this Likely Republican seat. But this primary will come down to the two Roanoke City councilmembers- Priddy and White-Boyd. White-Boyd has been an at large member of the city council since 2020, while Priddy, who is also a former staffer to Senator Edwards, has been a member since winning a special election to the city council in 2022. This is an intriguing race, but one I see White-Boyd having a slight upper hand. I see her dominating the city of Richmond, but the possibility that Priddy gets an endorsement from Edwards which could vault him into favorite status. But I currently see White-Boyd as a small, but clear favorite in this primary.
- SD-18, Louise Lucas V Lionell Spruill: The coup de grace of primary season. The two long time legislators were drawn together in redistricting, after Lucas decided to move here instead of running in the new 17th district, which is significantly more competitive. This is leading up to one of the most expensive primary races outside of Northern Virginia. Lucas, the current Senate Pro Tempor and de facto Democratic Leader, has gained headlines for her active and sometimes controversial social media presence since Youngkin came into office and declaring herself and the state senate a “brick wall”. However, while that has brought her attention and donations, its a move that was necessary. For most of her career, Lucas hasn’t represented Hampton Roads- she’s instead represented districts that were mostly Southside Virginia. This is where Spruill has a possible advantage. While he is new to the State Senate, Spruill has represented parts of Chesapeake City since 1994. With a large majority of the district in Chesapeake (63.5%), that does give Spruill an advantage, and his fundraising is nothing to shake your head at, actually having more cash on hand currently than Lucas. And while Lucas is a powerful figure, that does not mean she is unbeatable in a primary. And seeing where the lines are, I actually believe that Spruill, the long time legislator from Chesapeake , is a small favorite here. This could end up being completely wrong, but numbers and facts don’t lie. He has a distinct advantage in the more populous part of the district and without a huge financial edge towards Lucas, I think Spruill has a greater chance of winning this race than Lucas, but only just.
- SD-21, Angelia Williams Graves V Andria McClellan: This new, all Norfolk State Senate seat sees another interesting primary. Current Superward six councilwoman Andria McClellan, who ran for Lt Gov in 2021 and lost the primary and current Delegate Angelia Williams Graves. While McClellan has a fundraising advantage- having raised more and having more cash on hand, Graves has the institutional backing. Former governors Northam and McAuliffe have endorsed Graves, as well former area delegate Jay Jones. This alone in my opinion has me believe that Graves is indeed the favorite here, however, McClellan will have progressive backing. With Graves taking 30,000 dollars from Dominion Energy last quarter, and with Clean Virginia already backing McClellan I expect that support to grow exponentially. As I said, I do believe Graves is the favorite here, but there’s a pathway that exists for McClellan in this primary.
- SD-27, Joel Griffin V Ben Litchfield: This ones gotten spicy recently hasn’t it? Litchfield, an unabashed progressive from Fredericksburg, has started taking the more moderate Griffin to task. Specifically over a couple donations Griffin has made to Republicans, including Crystal Vanuch and potential opponent, Delegate Tara Durant. However, whether this will work is another story. Griffin is very clearly being pushed by party leaders as their candidate, wanting to do the best they can to try and win a seat that is very close to being a reach seat for them this cycle. Griffin has large personal pockets and is dominating Litchfield in the money game. Litchfield is depending heavily on grassroots activists to make up the difference, but I don’t think it will end up being enough in a primary. If he can get his message out there, Litchfield has a chance, but it’s not better than the one Griffin has now. I consider Joel Griffin the favorite in this primary race.
- SD-31, Russet Perry V Zach Cummings: This one is pretty easy to dissect. Perry, a former CIA officer and lawyer, is a clear favorite over Leesburg City Councilman Zach Cummings. The near entirety of the Virginia Senate Democratic caucus has endorsed her and the party is clear it wants her as the candidate against Juan Pablo Segura in this race. Perry is the hefty favorite, and I see no circumstance where she’s not the nominee.
- SD-32, Ibraheem Samirah V Suhas Subramanyam: This is another easy one. Subramanyam has the endorsement of former Senator John Bell and most of the party wants him to be the candidate. It’s hard for me to see the carpetbagger Samirah, who represented about 3% of this seat in his time as delegate, making any noise here. Subramanyam is a hefty favorite.
- SD-33, Jennifer Carroll Foy V Hala Ayala: Another real doozy of a primary. Ayala, who won the Democratic primary for Lt Governor in 2021, but lost the general, will face off against Jennifer Carroll Foy, who came in distant second to Terry McAuliffe in the 2021 primary for Governor. This is a classic NOVA establishment versus progressive democratic primary. Ayala is endorsed by former Governors McAuliffe and Northam, while Carroll Foy has endorsements from progressive officials across both Fairfax and Prince William counties. The Fairfax County portion may end up being what makes or breaks this race. With both candidates being from Prince William, whoever does better in the Fairfax County portion may end up with the edge. You could make a case for either candidate, but I think this is a case where progressive wins. Carroll Foy has more support from officials in Fairfax currently, and I don’t think the endorsements from the former Governors, particularly Northam’s, is as powerful in NOVA as it is in the Hampton Roads or Richmond areas. This will end up being close, but I see Carroll Foy as the current favorite in this primary.
Republican State Senate Primaries- Open Seats
- SD-01, Lance Allen V James Bergida V Blaine Dunn V Timmy French V Dave LaRock V John Massoud V Brandon Monk V Brad Pollack: Big race right? Eight candidates face off in the GOP primary for this Safely Republican open seat. And this will happen in a primary on June 20th. This almost makes choosing a favorite harder. With eight candidates, and many of them having claims to different parts of the district, someone could end up winning with 22% of the vote. So, I’m going to punt here and not declare a direct favorite. However, I think it will end up being one of John Massoud, Lance Allen or Delegate Dave LaRock. There’s just too many candidates and too many factors for me to make an accurate call here for either three. But, I think it will be one of them and it would surprise me if any of the other five made a real push for it.
- SD-10, Duane Adams V Sandy Brindley V Jack Dyer V John McGuire: The new SD-10 is a safe GOP seat in Central Virginia. With the convention taking place this Saturday, the race does seem to be down between current Delegate John McQuire and Louisa County Commissioner Duane Adams. McGuire seemed concerned about falling behind early on, attacking Adams as some sort of secret liberal for being a Democrat in the early 80s. I can safely bet that the type of Democrat Adams was was not a Liberal one. However, McGuire does seem to have a key advantage. The support of Governor Glenn Youngkin in the form of a key endorsement, which is repayment for McGuire being an early supporter of Youngkin’s in the 2021 cycle. Adams is not lacking in endorsement power though, holding one himself from Congressman Bob Good. It’s going to come down between those two candidates, but I think the Governors influence will hold more sway here. I see McGuire as the slight favorite over Adams in this race.
- SD-17, Hermie Sadler V Emily Brewer: In this crucial Southside seat, it’s been a controversial ride to get here. After originally being declared a convention, a lawsuit claiming the Governor personally made sure the primary would be a convention worked out and now we have a June 20th primary. Sadler, a former Nascar driver from Emporia, is trying to work his outsider credentials into winning this primary. Delegate Emily Brewer, from Isle of Wright however has institutional and geographic advantages in the face of Sadler’s financial one. With just under 63% of voters in this district being from Isle of Wright or next door Suffolk County, Brewer has an edge geographically that Brewer doesn’t. Institutionally, Brewer had locked up endorsements in Suffolk and Isle of Wright and has secured an endorsement from Lt Governor Winsome Sears, with one from Governor Youngkin apparently in the works. Sadler definitely can still win this, especially if he dominates the western portion of this district. However, I think there are still too many factors that favor Brewer here to not call her the favorite. It’s nowhere near certain, but I think Brewer has the current edge.
- SD-19, Tim Anderson V Jeff Bruzzesi V Christie Craig: After a late retirement from Senator John Cosgrove, this Southern Virginia Beach/Chesapeake City seat will elect a Republican. Whether that’s one of these three candidates is what’s up for debate. Anderson and Bruzzesi, both of Virginia Beach but come from very different backgrounds. Bruzzesi runs a business call Closet Factory in the area, while Delegate Tim Anderson is carpetbagging from his Northern VA Beach seat to run here. However, with a majority of the voters live in Chesapeake, which is Christie Craig’s territory. The long time Chief of Staff for Senator Cosgrove and member of the Chesapeake City School Board is the favorite in this race. Craig just has too many prior connections to Chesapeake, and I expect Anderson and Bruzzesi to split the vote in Virginia Beach and not get enough traction in Chesapeake to beat Craig.
- SD-27, Tara Durant V Matt Strickland: I’ve talked about this race numerous times already. The importance for Republicans choosing Durant over Strickland here is high. With Durant as the candidate, Republican odds, which are already good here, go up significantly with her as the nominee compared to Strickland. Thankfully, things seem to be trending that way. Durant has key institutional advantages in Stafford County which makes up the clear majority of this seat. I’ve also heard from multiple individuals that an endorsement from Governor Youngkin is coming for Durant. That will provide the extra boost needed for her to become a clear favorite from the favorite she is now.
- SD-29, Nikki Baldwin V Maria Martin: A random primary in what we consider a Safe Democratic Party seat. Won’t waste words here. Baldwin is both a significantly better candidate and definite favorite in this race. It won’t end up mattering in this race, but Baldwin is the overwhelming favorite here.
- SD-30, Bob Ruffalo V Bill Woolf: The GOP primary in this reach seat for Republicans is very raw. Both candidates got in very close to the filing deadline, meaning this race hasn’t developed yet. However, I’ve been told the area GOP wants Woolf as the candidate over Ruffalo, with the belief Woolf keeps the small chance against Danica Roem alive versus Ruffalo, who party leaders feel would sink that small chance. With that in mind, I see Woolf as the favorite in this primary race.