As another two weeks have passed us by, so comes time for another ratings update. We have three changes in our house ratings and three changes in our gubernatorial ratings.
- CA-13: Leans Democratic to Tossup
- IN-01: Leans Democratic to Tossup
- IL-06: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
To start, two current Democratic-held House seats have been moved into the Tossup column. First is California’s 13th. This Central Valley-district is based around all of Merced County and then parts of Stanislaus, San Joaquin, Madera and Fresno. The seat did vote for Joe Biden by double-digits, but like a good chunk of majority-Hispanic seats, swung right from 2016-2020. The primary vote here also favored Republicans by just under 3.5 points. Usually in California that’s not enough, but this is a seat that actually got more Republican from the 2020 primary to the general election, a recent rarity in California. Moreover, both nominees being almost even in fundraising numbers.
In Indiana’s 1st district, we have a very interesting race. Republicans nominated Veteran Jennifer Ruth-Green back in May, their favored candidate for this seat. The Biden+9 seat around Gary has quickly trended rightwards in the Trump era, and will likely not survive for Democrats this decade. However, it may end up in Republican hands as early as this year – perhaps sooner than expected. Ruth-Green outraised Frank Mrvan this past cycle, and rumors are that internals on both sides are showing a bleak picture for Mrvan. However, he is a legacy name, and it will be interesting to see if that can keep him above water in 2022.
Finally, we’re officially changing IL-06 to Likely Democratic. We wanted to do this two weeks ago, but held off because Dan Lipinski wanted attention. He decided he didn’t want too much attention though and passed on an independent run. So, the district now moves firmly into Likely Democratic.
With these new ratings, we now favor Republicans in 220 seats and Democrats in 189 seats, with the remaining 26 rated as Tossups.
- GA-Gov: Leans Republican to Likely Republican
- MD-Gov: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
- OR-Gov: Leans Democratic to Toss-Up
With Republicans in Maryland nominating Delegate Dan Cox for Governor, the slim GOP hopes of holding this state is gone. Maryland was a tough lift even with Kelly Schultz, and Cox just isn’t the type of Republican to win in this state. It’s now off the board.
Now, on the more interesting changes. In Oregon, we’ve now put the Governor’s race as a Tossup. As I’ve discussed here before, Oregon, no matter the year, usually has competitive Gubernatorial races. This year is set to be no different, especially since it seems set to be a three-way race. Former Democrat turned Independent State Senator Betsy Johnson has pulled an average of 24% among the five public polls (admittedly all internals, so take that as you will reader) meaning she is a player in this race. Couple that with the fact that Kate Brown is one of the most unpopular governors in the nation, and there’s a race here – a race that’s close enough that it warrants a Tossup rating.
Finally, we are moving Georgia’s Gubernatorial race from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. This is a gutsy move, but one based in facts. In the last five polls, other than a outlier tied poll from Quinnipiac, shows Kemp leads of 7, 9, 5 and 7 over Stacey Abrams. These margins have been stable, show Kemp consistently at 50 points or above, and show him strongly outperforming Herschel Walker against Raphael Warnock. And as I wrote just last week, beating an incumbent Governor is hard. With Kemp also having above average-approval ratings, it feels unlikely that Abrams wins here.