Elections Daily
    Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Twitch
    Monday, March 20
    • Congressional Vote Tracker
    • The Election Shuffler
    • The Poll Adjuster
    • Maps Database
    • Redistricting Radar
    Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Twitch
    Elections Daily
    • About Us
    • Contributors
    • Articles
    • Interviews
    • Election Ratings
    • Tools
      • Congressional Vote Tracker
      • The Election Shuffler
      • The Poll Adjuster
      • Maps Database
      • Redistricting Radar
    Elections Daily
    Home»Articles»Ratings Update: Republicans Turn Two House Districts into Tossups
    Articles

    Ratings Update: Republicans Turn Two House Districts into Tossups

    Joe SzymanskiBy Joe SzymanskiJuly 25, 2022No Comments4 Mins Read
    Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr Email
    Share
    Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Email

    As another two weeks have passed us by, so comes time for another ratings update. We have three changes in our house ratings and three changes in our gubernatorial ratings.

    House Changes

    • CA-13: Leans Democratic to Tossup
    • IN-01: Leans Democratic to Tossup
    • IL-06: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic

    To start, two current Democratic-held House seats have been moved into the Tossup column. First is California’s 13th. This Central Valley-district is based around all of Merced County and then parts of Stanislaus, San Joaquin, Madera and Fresno. The seat did vote for Joe Biden by double-digits, but like a good chunk of majority-Hispanic seats, swung right from 2016-2020. The primary vote here also favored Republicans by just under 3.5 points. Usually in California that’s not enough, but this is a seat that actually got more Republican from the 2020 primary to the general election, a recent rarity in California. Moreover, both nominees being almost even in fundraising numbers.

    In Indiana’s 1st district, we have a very interesting race. Republicans nominated Veteran Jennifer Ruth-Green back in May, their favored candidate for this seat. The Biden+9 seat around Gary has quickly trended rightwards in the Trump era, and will likely not survive for Democrats this decade. However, it may end up in Republican hands as early as this year – perhaps sooner than expected. Ruth-Green outraised Frank Mrvan this past cycle, and rumors are that internals on both sides are showing a bleak picture for Mrvan. However, he is a legacy name, and it will be interesting to see if that can keep him above water in 2022.

    Finally, we’re officially changing IL-06 to Likely Democratic. We wanted to do this two weeks ago, but held off because Dan Lipinski wanted attention. He decided he didn’t want too much attention though and passed on an independent run. So, the district now moves firmly into Likely Democratic.

    With these new ratings, we now favor Republicans in 220 seats and Democrats in 189 seats, with the remaining 26 rated as Tossups.

    Gubernatorial Changes

    • GA-Gov: Leans Republican to Likely Republican
    • MD-Gov: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
    • OR-Gov: Leans Democratic to Toss-Up

    With Republicans in Maryland nominating Delegate Dan Cox for Governor, the slim GOP hopes of holding this state is gone. Maryland was a tough lift even with Kelly Schultz, and Cox just isn’t the type of Republican to win in this state. It’s now off the board.

    Now, on the more interesting changes. In Oregon, we’ve now put the Governor’s race as a Tossup. As I’ve discussed here before, Oregon, no matter the year, usually has competitive Gubernatorial races. This year is set to be no different, especially since it seems set to be a three-way race. Former Democrat turned Independent State Senator Betsy Johnson has pulled an average of 24% among the five public polls (admittedly all internals, so take that as you will reader) meaning she is a player in this race. Couple that with the fact that Kate Brown is one of the most unpopular governors in the nation, and there’s a race here – a race that’s close enough that it warrants a Tossup rating.

    Finally, we are moving Georgia’s Gubernatorial race from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. This is a gutsy move, but one based in facts. In the last five polls, other than a outlier tied poll from Quinnipiac, shows Kemp leads of 7, 9, 5 and 7 over Stacey Abrams. These margins have been stable, show Kemp consistently at 50 points or above, and show him strongly outperforming Herschel Walker against Raphael Warnock. And as I wrote just last week, beating an incumbent Governor is hard. With Kemp also having above average-approval ratings, it feels unlikely that Abrams wins here.

    2022 elections Elections Ratings Race Ratings Ratings
    Share. Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr Email
    Joe Szymanski
    • Twitter

    Joe is a college student studying Public Administration at George Mason University while also minoring in Journalism. Joe is the Head of the Interviews Team at Elections Daily, while also Deputy Director of the Elections Team. If you would like your candidate to be interviewed by Joe, you can DM him at his Twitter account @JosephSzymanski or email him @[email protected]

    Related Posts

    A Look Back at the 2010 Nevada Statewide Races

    March 17, 2023

    California’s Last Republican Victory: The 2006 Gubernatorial Election

    March 14, 2023

    SNP Leadership Election

    March 10, 2023

    Leave a Comment Cancel reply

    Get the latest election news delivered to your inbox from Elections Daily
    Loading
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Instagram
    • YouTube
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitch
    Top Articles

    A Look Back at the 2010 Nevada Statewide Races

    March 17, 2023

    California’s Last Republican Victory: The 2006 Gubernatorial Election

    March 14, 2023

    SNP Leadership Election

    March 10, 2023

    50 of the Most Powerful and Influential Women in American History

    March 8, 2023
    Archives
    Categories
    Follow Elections Daily

    Enter your email address to follow Elections Daily and receive notifications of new posts by email.

    Donate

    Support Elections Daily

    Amazon Affiliate

    Support Elections Daily by purchasing from Amazon.com through this affiliate link. A percentage of your purchase will go to Elections Daily, helping us continue to provide quality content.

    Maps Database Updates

    *January 11, 2021 – 800+ maps uploaded.

    Elections Daily
    Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Twitch
    • Congressional Vote Tracker
    • The Election Shuffler
    • The Poll Adjuster
    • Maps Database
    • Redistricting Radar
    © 2023 Decision Desk HQ News

    Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.