Elections Daily
    Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Twitch
    Monday, March 27
    • Congressional Vote Tracker
    • The Election Shuffler
    • The Poll Adjuster
    • Maps Database
    • Redistricting Radar
    Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Twitch
    Elections Daily
    • About Us
    • Contributors
    • Articles
    • Interviews
    • Election Ratings
    • Tools
      • Congressional Vote Tracker
      • The Election Shuffler
      • The Poll Adjuster
      • Maps Database
      • Redistricting Radar
    Elections Daily
    Home»Articles»Three Key Regions Across America For the 2022 Midterm Elections
    Articles

    Three Key Regions Across America For the 2022 Midterm Elections

    Joe SzymanskiBy Joe SzymanskiFebruary 14, 20221 Comment5 Mins Read
    Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr Email
    Share
    Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Email

    As we continue to inch ever closer to November, more attention will be paid to our Midterm elections. The environment continues to look set towards some sort of Republican tilt. President Biden is unpopular, and Republicans have continued to gain on the general ballot.

    Putting that to the side though, I believe there are three key areas to watch these midterms, all in different parts of the nation.

    Key Area 1: The Rio Grande Valley/Texas Border Counties

    The first one should be no surprise to most politicos. The Rio Grande Valley in Texas, mainly the counties on the border with Mexico, all had swings to the right in 2020. Compared to 2016, Donald Trump and Republicans across the board gained massively in this area. It was one of the shocks of the night and nearly caused Vicente Gonzalez to get upset by Monica Le La Cruz in Texas’s 15th district.

    2021 hasn’t been much better for Democrats in this part of the nation, either. Democrats saw State Representative Ryan Guillen switch parties, already putting them down a seat in this part of the nation. Party switches also signal to me a deeper issue when they occur. It usually shows a rapid change is occurring in those areas politically.

    It’s possible that this is only a one-time thing. Boosted by Trump’s 2020 messaging, these areas saw a swing heavily to the right. But, there are underlying factors that make this look like more than a one-time swing. Republicans are active on the ground in this part of the country. They are openly courting the heavily-Hispanic population in these counties, urging them to register to vote and vote Republican.

    If it is a trend, not only with it likely see the aforementioned De La Cruz elected to Congress in a newly-drawn Trump-won seat, but other far reaching items too. Hildago and Cameron County may be within 10 points statewide. Starr and Maverick counties may flip. And Republicans may even end up winning the redrawn 28th district and be competitive in the redrawn 34th. And if we do see this trend continue, it means Democrats math for flipping Texas this decade gets just a bit tougher.

    Area Number Two: Upstate New York

    Another key area to watch, specifically for Congressional races, is Upstate New York. Upstate has been very swingy politically since 2016. It swung nicely for Donald Trump in 2016, swung back for everyone but Andrew Cuomo in 2018, and held relatively firm for Joe Biden in 2020.

    However, Upstate has a history of being volatile, especially in midterm elections. This volatility is what saw John Katko win an Obama+16 seat in 2014 by almost 20 points – over an incumbent. It’s also what saw Republicans nearly win the Obama+20, Rochester-based NY-25 that very same year.

    Even with what is now a very effective gerrymander, there is still room for Republicans in two seats upstate. The new 18th and 19th districts, held by Sean Patrick Maloney and Antonio Delgado, respectively, did go to Joe Biden by solid margins; he won the 18th by 8.5 points, and won the 19th by 10. However, it’s key to remember that Hillary Clinton only won the 18th by 1.1 points and the 19th by 2.2 points. If these seats had been around under a theoretical Clinton midterm, no one would consider them safe.

    If Republicans can nominate good candidates (and almost everyone would admit that has been an issue in these seats) and we see strong GOP performances Upstate, there’s room for upsets in both districts. And a Republican swing in 2022 similar to the one in 2016 may point to something of a slight trend in some of these areas Upstate to the right. This will be a fascinating part of the nation to see come in on election night, and it may be a harbinger of what’s to come across the nation.

    Area Number 3: The Pacific Northwest

    Now I want to state something very quickly here. When I say Pacific Northwest, I’m not talking about the entire states of Oregon and Washington.

    Oregon’s gubernatorial race seems likely, as usual, to be competitive, Washington as a state will not be, no matter what anyone tells you. However, certain parts of these states will be interesting to watch. In both Washington and Oregon, Trump’s 2016 run saw improvement in the whiter and more working class areas of these states.

    Of course, the suburban swings around Portland, Seattle, Bend, Vancouver and other sizable cities canceled out those working class swings. But 2022 offers a chance to see if the GOP gains in those working class counties, or if there’s a slight swung back in the suburbs.

    In Oregon particularly, that could have effects at the top of the ballot and down it as well. Oregon’s gubernatorial race is likely to be one of the more competitive in the nation, as has been the standard whether under a Republican president or a Democratic president for the last three decades. It may also end up impacting congressional races, too. While Democrats effectively gerrymandered the state, shoring up the 4th and 5th districts considerably from their old form.

    However, mainly in the 5th, a working class backlash and even a slight suburban swing back towards Republicans could spell doom for Kurt Schrader and would have an outsized effect on the Governors race. Even under the new lines, it still is a fascinating district to watch. And in Washington, the 8th congressional district remains highly competitive. A Republican jolt in these counties in both states would tell of a nationwide working class backlash.

    2022 elections Federal House of Representatives
    Share. Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr Email
    Joe Szymanski
    • Twitter

    Joe is a college student studying Public Administration at George Mason University while also minoring in Journalism. Joe is the Head of the Interviews Team at Elections Daily, while also Deputy Director of the Elections Team. If you would like your candidate to be interviewed by Joe, you can DM him at his Twitter account @JosephSzymanski or email him @[email protected]

    Related Posts

    District Profiles: Connecticut’s Congressional Districts

    March 27, 2023

    How to Become President: A 10-Step Guide

    March 23, 2023

    District Profiles: Colorado’s Congressional Districts

    March 22, 2023

    1 Comment

    1. Anonymous on February 17, 2022 4:13 pm

      Oregon, Governors race is one to watch. Incumbent Kate Brown, has lowest approval ratings of any governor. That with Bidens unpopularity make this race potentially competitive

      Reply

    Leave a Comment Cancel reply

    Get the latest election news delivered to your inbox from Elections Daily
    Loading
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Instagram
    • YouTube
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitch
    Top Articles

    District Profiles: Connecticut’s Congressional Districts

    March 27, 2023

    How to Become President: A 10-Step Guide

    March 23, 2023

    District Profiles: Colorado’s Congressional Districts

    March 22, 2023

    Could Trump Really Avoid Arrest by Staying at Mar-A-Lago?

    March 21, 2023
    Archives
    Categories
    Follow Elections Daily

    Enter your email address to follow Elections Daily and receive notifications of new posts by email.

    Donate

    Support Elections Daily

    Amazon Affiliate

    Support Elections Daily by purchasing from Amazon.com through this affiliate link. A percentage of your purchase will go to Elections Daily, helping us continue to provide quality content.

    Maps Database Updates

    *January 11, 2021 – 800+ maps uploaded.

    Elections Daily
    Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Twitch
    • Congressional Vote Tracker
    • The Election Shuffler
    • The Poll Adjuster
    • Maps Database
    • Redistricting Radar
    © 2023 Decision Desk HQ News

    Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.