We’re excited to unveil our final ratings of the 2020 elections! We’ve compiled a helpful PDF document with our predictions for all the major races; you can download it below. Additionally, we’ll be explaining the broad strokes of our predictions below. As always, you can find our full predictions on our Race Ratings page as well.
We project that Joe Biden (D) will win 335 electoral votes while Donald Trump (R) will win 203 electoral votes. We’ve shifted three of our five tossup states (Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio) to Leans Republican and two (Florida and North Carolina) to Leans Democratic. We’ve also moved Maine’s 2nd congressional district to Leans Democratic. Finally, we’ve shifted Montana from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
Our toughest moves here were in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. All three of these states are highly competitive and could go either way. However, we feel the data suggests Georgia narrowly stays in the Republican column while Florida and North Carolina narrowly return to the Democratic one.
In the Senate, we project Democrats will win 50 seats and Republicans will win 49 seats. The remaining race, the Georgia Special election, is Safe Runoff; we believe it is certain to go to a runoff between Raphael Warnock (D) and either of the two Republican nominees. Because the race seems like a Tossup at that point, we’re introducing this new rating.
Additionally, we still think David Perdue (R) is the favorite in the other Georgia race. However, we think the odds of a runoff or a Jon Ossoff (D) victory outright are higher than those a Perdue victory outright. So while this race is in the Republican column, it could quite possibly go to a runoff.
Our shifts from our last ratings are:
- Arizona – Likely Democratic > Leans Democratic
- Georgia special – Likely Republican > Safe Runoff
- Iowa – Tossup > Leans Republican
- New Mexico – Safe Democratic > Likely Democratic
In the House, we project a net Democratic gain of nine seats. This would leave the chamber with 242 Democrats and 193 Republicans. We project that three seats will flip from Democratic to Republican while 12 will flip from Republican to Democratic. You can find our full ratings in the PDF document.
We have not made any adjustments to our gubernatorial ratings. As before, we Democrats set to hold three states (Delaware, North Carolina, and Washington). Republicans are poised to hold seven states (Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, and Vermont) while gaining a state, Montana, that currently has a Democratic governor. Montana is our only projected flip of the cycle.