Elections Daily
    Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Twitch
    Monday, March 27
    • Congressional Vote Tracker
    • The Election Shuffler
    • The Poll Adjuster
    • Maps Database
    • Redistricting Radar
    Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Twitch
    Elections Daily
    • About Us
    • Contributors
    • Articles
    • Interviews
    • Election Ratings
    • Tools
      • Congressional Vote Tracker
      • The Election Shuffler
      • The Poll Adjuster
      • Maps Database
      • Redistricting Radar
    Elections Daily
    Home»Articles»Senate Race Rating Changes (September 21)
    Articles

    Senate Race Rating Changes (September 21)

    Kraz GreinetzBy Kraz GreinetzSeptember 21, 2020No Comments2 Mins Read
    Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr Email
    Share
    Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Email

    Senate Changes

    • Maine – Tossup > Leans Democratic
    • South Carolina – Safe Republican > Likely Republican

    We are making two changes this week. In Maine, we are moving the race left to Leans Democratic. Despite her long history of crossover support, incumbent Susan Collins seems to be struggling mightily. We wrote about her lackluster polling back in March, and much of that still holds true. Collins simply is not getting the crossover support she needs to pull out a win, especially with ranked-choice voting.

    Earlier in the year, Collins’s observers attributed her poor polling to her struggles with Trump voters and this was partly true. Surveys consistently showed that Trump voters weren’t sold on her, were dragging down her approval. But the story is different now. According to a new poll from The New York Times, Collins wins virtually as many self-identified Republicans as her opponent, Sara Gideon, does self-identified Democrats.

    For their part, the GOP has claimed that their internal polls show Collins in a much better position than the public polling suggests. However, Collins has not led in a publicly released poll since July. Before that, her last lead was in fall 2019. The GOP will not release their internals, so we are giving the public polls the benefit of the doubt and moving the race.

    Our next change is one that is likely overdue. We are changing South Carolina’s Senate race to Likely Republican. We have long been skeptical of Jamie Harrison’s chances in the Palmetto State, where Democrats seem to have a ceiling. The party came within 8% in the 2018 gubernatorial race – their best performance statewide in years.

    South Carolina, unlike somewhere like Georgia, does not have any large and rapidly growing metro areas. This makes Harrison’s road to victory difficult. He needs to run up the score in Charleston, make modest gains in the state’s other metros (like Columbia and Greenville/Spartanburg), and stem the bleeding in the state’s rural areas. We view this as a narrow but not impossible tight rope to walk. Polling shows South Carolina looks moderately more competitive than in years past, and Harrison has polled closely with Graham in some surveys.

    Maine Ratings Senate South Carolina
    Share. Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr Email
    Kraz Greinetz
    • Twitter

    Kraz Greinetz is a second year law student at Duke University, where he serves as a staff editor on the Journal of Constitutional Law and Public Policy. He formerly served as a Dave Kennedy Fellow at the Institute for Justice. His interests include maps, elections, maps of elections, and college football. He can be reached at [email protected]

    Related Posts

    How to Become President: A 10-Step Guide

    March 23, 2023

    District Profiles: Colorado’s Congressional Districts

    March 22, 2023

    Could Trump Really Avoid Arrest by Staying at Mar-A-Lago?

    March 21, 2023

    Leave a Comment Cancel reply

    Get the latest election news delivered to your inbox from Elections Daily
    Loading
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Instagram
    • YouTube
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitch
    Top Articles

    How to Become President: A 10-Step Guide

    March 23, 2023

    District Profiles: Colorado’s Congressional Districts

    March 22, 2023

    Could Trump Really Avoid Arrest by Staying at Mar-A-Lago?

    March 21, 2023

    A Look Back at the 2010 Nevada Statewide Races

    March 17, 2023
    Archives
    Categories
    Follow Elections Daily

    Enter your email address to follow Elections Daily and receive notifications of new posts by email.

    Donate

    Support Elections Daily

    Amazon Affiliate

    Support Elections Daily by purchasing from Amazon.com through this affiliate link. A percentage of your purchase will go to Elections Daily, helping us continue to provide quality content.

    Maps Database Updates

    *January 11, 2021 – 800+ maps uploaded.

    Elections Daily
    Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Twitch
    • Congressional Vote Tracker
    • The Election Shuffler
    • The Poll Adjuster
    • Maps Database
    • Redistricting Radar
    © 2023 Decision Desk HQ News

    Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.