The Presidential election will be consequential, but so will that random ballot measure. There are plenty of contests happening that have garnered little attention but may prove influential in your daily livelihood. These contests usually don’t generate the spending-flurry and neighborhood discussion that proliferates with the Presidential contest
These contests may not serve to tell the national landscape but can give regionalized breakdowns into issues specific to the region and larger trends across our country. Open-streets, abortion access, and ranked choice voting are only on the line in certain municipalities. However all these topics may show up in your own ballot, and these are also sometimes characterized as the filler races; the races to watch while awaiting the returns for the most consequential elections.
From a measure to close a portion of a famous highway to a State Senate district in New York here are five filler races to watch on Election Day.
Prop K, San Francisco, California
With the idea of open streets gaining prominence San Francisco will carry a litmus test with Proposition K, placed on the ballot by several San Francisco City Supervisors. The measure would close a two-mile stretch of highway, known as the “Great Highway”, and modify it to pedestrianized-access and cycling lanes.
The highway was closed for cars during the height of Covid, but the contentious measure will seal or open the fate to car-access on the stretch of road. Proponents of closing the Great Highway include former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Mayor London Breed. However many older and more moderate residents are against closing the highway for cars, with complaints of increased traffic being frequent. Prop K is just one fight in many city-wise battles over cars vs. bikes and pedestrians.
Los Angeles, California 14th City Council District
Back in 2022 the Los Angeles Times released an alarming recording between three city council members and a Union President making racist comments directed towards African-Americans and Jews and admitted to redrawing the city council districts in the 2021 redistricting to benefit Hispanic representation at the expense of other groups.
One of the city council members recorded was Kevin De Leon, who famously challenged former California Senator Dianne Feinstein in 2018. De Leon lost, but won a coalition of Latino voters, Republicans, and progressives.
De Leon refused to resign and now progressive newcomer Ysabel Jurado is hoping to make history as the first Filipino-American to sit on the Los Angeles City Council. The heavily Latino district could boot De Leon, and deliver progressives a key win in a city dominated by more liberal and establishment-aligned figures like Adam Schiff and Maxine Waters.
Missouri Amendment 3
Missouri is a reliably conservative state with the competetive elections a thing of the 2000’s and early 2010’s. However abortion rights tend to poll above Democrats and Missouri is giving that a test with amendment 3 which will enshrine abortion protections into the tate constitution. Missouri legislator want to ban abortion, but the ballot measure process has bore fruit for other causes typically championed by more liberal-leaning individuals like the legalization of recreational marijuana in the state.
Amendment 3 is polling favorably consistently across multiple polls, but the results show a narrow edge for the yes camp. Religious groups and conservatives have rallied against the amendments passage, but suburban voters who may otherwise vote for Trump and Sen. Josh Hawley may vote yes on 3. The suburban counties adjacent to the population hubs of Kansas City, Columbia, and St. Louis will prove to be decisivie. Look out for Platte, Clay, St. Charles, Jefferson County, and all the counties surrounding Columbia.
New York’s 38th State Senate District
The Jewish vote will be critical for the Presidential contest and many statewide and downballot elections, but few will see Jewish communities play as an important role as New York. In New York City there is a strong Jewish vote, especially in Brooklyn. This is true for Long Island, Westchester, and upstate New York as well.
The Hudson Valley stretching from the New York City northern suburbs to the state capitol of Albany spans three key congressional districts (17th, 18th, and the 19th). The three districts have the Satmar Hasidic community, a group of orthodox Jewish residents who live clustered in communities and vote as a bloc on the reccomendations of their local Rabbi. The Satmar community prescribe to anti-Zionism and are socially conservative, with the groups leaders backing Donald Trump largely after previously backing him in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. This could net Trump a hefty share of votes, but there role are more outsized down-ballot.
The individual Satmar communities broke for the three incumbents of Democrat Pat Ryan in the 18th and Marc Molinaro and Mike Lawler in the 19th and 17th respectively. The Satmar community also waded into the contentious 38th State Senate district, one of handful of key State Senate contests to determine if Republicans break the Democratic supermajority. Democrat Elijah Reichlin-Melnick is vying to win his old seat back fron Republican Bill Weber. The Satmar community is backing Melnick, and this could prove to show the communites strength if Melnick wins.
Orthodox Jewish communities also can be seen in force in Lakewood New Jersey, Borough Park New York, and Riverdale New York. However these communities do not vote uniformly, and in recent years Orthodox communities have voted more independently than of what the local Rabbi endorses.
Alaska Amendment 2
Ranked-choice voting is still an emerging concept outside of Maine and Alaska, but more cities and states are considering adopting it. Nevada is being faced with Question 3, which asks about establishing a top-five jungle primary for future elections in Nevada, with a yes vote placating it in effect.
However Alaska already aopted it and is now facing a ballot measure asking voters if ranked choice voting (Alaska has a top-four jungle primary where candidates who place top-four advance regardless of party ID) should be repealed.
If RCV is repealed it would likely be a larger headache for Democrats, with the Alaska GOP spearheading the repeal effort. The amendment’s passage is polling neck-and-neck, with a recent Alaska Survey Research poll showing the amendment failing 55-45%, which is a rising share for the no camp with the head pollster of ASR Ivan Moore stating that he contends the $12,000,000 poured in on the no-sides camp played a role.
