Last Friday, a Manhattan jury returned its verdict in the so-called Trump hush money case. The verdict was a resounding declaration of guilt on all 34 charges. Immediately, Trump began to fundraise and Democrats began to use the verdict in their campaign material.
It is still unclear what Trump’s punishment will be following this conviction. While the charges are felonies that could carry a prison sentence, Trump is technically an elderly man with no criminal record.
The conviction won’t end Trump
Ever since the first Trump indictment came down, pundits have debated constantly over what the cases would mean for the 2024 election. Some observers believe that the verdict would finally be what it took to diminish Trump’s standing. Others take a more cynical view, reminding their readers of the many, many other Trump scandals that were supposed to end the former president’s influence on the American political system. As Ed Kilgore wrote for New York magazine of the first week of polling since the verdict, “Whatever voters told pollsters about a hypothetical criminal conviction, the actual criminal conviction isn’t creating much movement, or even reconsideration.” The first round of polling has certainly helped bolster the argument of the cynics in this case.
The idea of Trump verdicts “ending” the Trump problem has always been an exaggeration. Only the voters can stop his role in the political process. When viewed through this lens, the hush money verdict was less of a silver bullet and more of a piece of information that voters needed as they head to the polls.
Voters have a clearer choice
Voters needed to know whether or not Trump was a criminal. This fact of the race has been fully understood by both pundits and voters themselves. In a poll last week, sixty percent of voters wanted the verdicts of all of Trump’s other criminal cases before the election as well. The information is required because of the way many voters view their own decision-making. Political scientists know that many voters make decisions based on a host of rational and irrational sources. But voters believe that they survey each candidate and make the best decision based on the facts available. One of those facts is whether or not Trump is a criminal, a decision best made in our criminal justice system by juries like the one that found him guilty last week.
The verdict could clearly sway voters who want all possible information on both candidates before making a decision. But it could also help frame the message that voters want to send with their votes. According to recent polling, voters seem angrier about inflation than almost any other issue. They hate higher prices and blame Joe Biden for them. It is possible that they want to punish Biden for these higher prices by electing Donald Trump to a second term. That message becomes clearer if they vote for Trump even after learning he is a convicted felon.
In a democracy, the people should be allowed to vote for who they want. It is their right to vote for Trump if they believe that this support is the only way to make their voices heard on inflation. The only barrier to this decision was learning once and for all the criminal status of Biden’s opponent. Now they know. It will be their choice in November what to do with this information.
1 Comment
Trump has actually gained in the polls. While it’s a small gain, this should tell folks that this is now the new floor for Trump. It wouldn’t surprise me that Biden’s new ceiling is probably here.