In Virginia, an oft discussed state currently residing on the periphery of the presidential battlegrounds, elections were held in 2023 for the Senate and House of Delegates. The chambers were seen as critical to Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s agenda (he was elected in a shock victory in 2021 to the Governor’s post), with a Republican majority in both chambers a boon to his efforts to pass his party’s preferred legislation in the state, while a Democratic majority in the chambers would block his agenda.
To gain a majority in the Virginia State Senate, Virginia Republicans would have to win multiple battleground seats that President Biden had won just three years earlier. In the end, however, Republicans picked up two seats, but fell short of a majority, with the Virginia Democratic party holding the chamber 21-19. This article will examine the battleground districts decided by 10.00% or less.
Virginia State Senate Overall Maps and Table Results
| District | Rep Votes | Dem Votes | 3rd | Total | RPCT | DCPT |
| 1 | 37,453 | 21,334 | 5,535 | 64,322 | 58.23% | 33.17% |
| 2 | 39,770 | 16,398 | 1,168 | 57,336 | 69.36% | 28.60% |
| 3 | 41,381 | 21,353 | 83 | 62,817 | 65.88% | 33.99% |
| 4 | 32,127 | 28,109 | 126 | 60,362 | 53.22% | 46.57% |
| 5 | 36,528 | 18,092 | 80 | 54,700 | 66.78% | 33.07% |
| 6 | 43,641 | 0 | 1,302 | 44,943 | 97.10% | 0.00% |
| 7 | 43,158 | 13,794 | 55 | 57,007 | 75.71% | 24.20% |
| 8 | 41,754 | 17,744 | 68 | 59,566 | 70.10% | 29.79% |
| 9 | 41,877 | 0 | 3,354 | 45,231 | 92.58% | 0.00% |
| 10 | 59,013 | 0 | 5,721 | 64,734 | 91.16% | 0.00% |
| 11 | 25,416 | 48,675 | 100 | 74,191 | 34.26% | 65.61% |
| 12 | 44,597 | 36,689 | 213 | 81,499 | 54.72% | 45.02% |
| 13 | 23,727 | 35,472 | 98 | 59,297 | 40.01% | 59.82% |
| 14 | 0 | 61,127 | 2,989 | 64,116 | 0.00% | 95.34% |
| 15 | 20,042 | 33,253 | 202 | 53,497 | 37.46% | 62.16% |
| 16 | 37,000 | 44,803 | 157 | 81,960 | 45.14% | 54.66% |
| 17 | 39,752 | 36,083 | 216 | 76,051 | 52.27% | 47.45% |
| 18 | 19,828 | 28,668 | 203 | 48,699 | 40.72% | 58.87% |
| 19 | 35,186 | 25,201 | 160 | 60,547 | 58.11% | 41.62% |
| 20 | 36,545 | 27,560 | 126 | 64,231 | 56.90% | 42.91% |
| 21 | 0 | 28,071 | 8,367 | 36,438 | 0.00% | 77.04% |
| 22 | 24,368 | 29,999 | 74 | 54,441 | 44.76% | 55.10% |
| 23 | 0 | 35,132 | 4,021 | 39,153 | 0.00% | 89.73% |
| 24 | 33,952 | 33,227 | 143 | 67,322 | 50.43% | 49.36% |
| 25 | 42,650 | 26,287 | 93 | 69,030 | 61.78% | 38.08% |
| 26 | 57,026 | 34,684 | 74 | 91,784 | 62.13% | 37.79% |
| 27 | 34,180 | 32,927 | 3,935 | 71,042 | 48.11% | 46.35% |
| 28 | 44,737 | 24,412 | 2,410 | 71,559 | 62.52% | 34.11% |
| 29 | 22,872 | 29,641 | 189 | 52,702 | 43.40% | 56.24% |
| 30 | 28,240 | 30,499 | 183 | 58,922 | 47.93% | 51.76% |
| 31 | 41,755 | 46,821 | 196 | 88,772 | 47.04% | 52.74% |
| 32 | 23,541 | 36,590 | 300 | 60,431 | 38.96% | 60.55% |
| 33 | 20,525 | 35,003 | 169 | 55,697 | 36.85% | 62.85% |
| 34 | 16,389 | 38,140 | 149 | 54,678 | 29.97% | 69.75% |
| 35 | 18,677 | 39,441 | 198 | 58,316 | 32.03% | 67.63% |
| 36 | 23,458 | 36,802 | 223 | 60,483 | 38.78% | 60.85% |
| 37 | 18,427 | 40,947 | 238 | 59,612 | 30.91% | 68.69% |
| 38 | 21,742 | 47,623 | 200 | 69,565 | 31.25% | 68.46% |
| 39 | 11,100 | 40,675 | 171 | 51,946 | 21.37% | 78.30% |
| 40 | 11,149 | 48,055 | 182 | 59,386 | 18.77% | 80.92% |
| Total | 1,193,583 | 1,229,331 | 43,471 | 2,466,385 | 48.39% | 49.84% |
| Margin | D +35,748 | D +1.45% |
Virginia State Senate District 4
The 4th State Senate District of Virginia is comprised of the cities of Roanoke and Salem, with sections of Roanoke and Montgomery Counties rounding out the rest of the district’s voters. The district is a battleground district, as former President Trump narrowly won it in 2020 under the new redrawn lines, although it is more Republican down ballot.
4th District Total Registration Data (As of November 2023)
| County | Total |
| SD-04 | 155,403 |
| Total | 155,403 |
In the 2023 elections for Virginia State Senate, both Republican incumbent Dave Suetterlein and Democratic incumbent John Edwards were redistricted into this seat. John Edwards opted to retire rather than seek re-election, while Suetterlein ran for reelection. Suetterlein ran unopposed in the Republican primary, while Democratic candidate Trish White-Boyd emerged victorious in the Democratic primary with 57.15% of the vote against two other Democrats. Both the Republican incumbent and Democratic challenger advanced to the November general election.
-4th District Election Data (In November Election)
| County/City | Suetterlein | Suetterlein % | White-Boyd | White-Boyd % | 3rd | Total |
| Montgomery | 7,361 | 56.37% | 5,675 | 43.46% | 23 | 13,059 |
| Roanoke City | 8,272 | 38.82% | 12,973 | 60.89% | 61 | 21,306 |
| Roanoke | 12,089 | 63.48% | 6,921 | 36.34% | 35 | 19,045 |
| Salem City | 4,405 | 63.36% | 2,540 | 36.54% | 7 | 6,952 |
| Total | 32,127 | 53.22% | 28,109 | 46.57% | 84 | 60,362 |
| Margin | R +4,018 | R +6.65% |
In the general election, Suetterlein won Montgomery County, Roanoke County, and Salem City portions of the district by a combined 23,855 – 15,136 votes, netting an 8,719-vote lead. White-Boyd won Roanoke City 12,973 – 8,272 votes, netting a 4,701-vote lead in that area of the district, but this was not enough to overcome Suetterlein’s 8,719 vote margin in the other three areas, allowing Suetterlein to win the district 32,127 – 28,109 votes, or by a margin of 4,018 votes (6.65%). This will be a Democratic target in 2027.
Virginia State Senate District 12
The 12th State Senate District of Virginia is comprised of a portion of Chesterfield County and Colonial Heights City and is a moderately Republican leaning district overall. Former President Trump won the district by a couple points in 2020, and this is a district Republicans would be expected to win in a normal year.
12th District Total Registration Data (As of November 2023)
| County | Total |
| SD-12 | 172,674 |
| Total | 172,674 |
In the 2023 elections for Virginia’s 12th State Senate District, Republican incumbent Amanda Chase, who did not caucus with Republicans after a series of controversial remarks, ran for re-election. She faced opposition from two candidates in the Republican primary: Glen Sturtevant, a former State Senator who was widely seen as the more moderate candidate in the primary, and Tina Ramirez. Sturtevant won the primary 8,578 votes (39.53%) to Chase’s 8,203 votes (37.80%), while Ramirez took 4,920 votes (22.67%). In the Democratic primary, Natan McKenzie ran unopposed, rendering Sturtevant and McKenzie the candidates advancing to November.
12th District Election Data (In November Election)
| County/City | Sturtevant | Sturtevant % | McKenzie | McKenzie % | 3rd | Total |
| Chesterfield | 41,327 | 53.62% | 35,551 | 46.12% | 200 | 77,078 |
| Colonial Heights City | 3,270 | 73.97% | 1,138 | 25.74% | 13 | 4,421 |
| Total | 44,597 | 54.72% | 36,689 | 45.02% | 213 | 81,499 |
| Margin | R +7,908 | R +9.70% |
In the general election, Sturtevant won both the Chesterfield County and Colonial Heights City portion, allowing him to win the district 44,597 – 36,689 votes (54.72% – 45.02%), achieving a margin of 7,908 votes (9.70%). This seat will be a Democratic target in 2027.
Virginia State Senate District 16
The 16th State Senate District of Virginia is comprised entirely of Henrico County and is a Democratic leaning district, as Biden won the new district by a sizable margin, making it a district that Democrats would typically be expected to win.
16th District Total Registration Data (As of November 2023)
| County | Total |
| SD-16 | 153,758 |
| Total | 153,758 |
In the primary elections for the 16th district, Siobhan Dunnavant, the Republican incumbent, ran for re-election, running unopposed in the Republican primary, while Schuyler VanValkenburg ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. Both candidates advanced to the November general election.
16th District Election Data (In November Election)
| County | Dunnavant | Dunnavant % | VanValkenburg | VanValkenburg % | 3rd | Total |
| Henrico | 37,000 | 45.14% | 44,803 | 54.66% | 157 | 81,960 |
| Total | 37,000 | 45.14% | 44,803 | 54.66% | 157 | 81,960 |
| Margin | D +7,803 | D +9.52% |
A couple of hours after election night, the election was called for VanValkenburg, who won the district against Dunnavant 44,803 – 37,000 votes (54.66% – 45.14%), with a margin of 7,803 votes (9.52%). This seat will not be a Republican target in 2027 unless Dunnavant runs again, and even then, it will be a heavy lift just based on it being a Biden won district in 2020.
Virginia State Senate District 17
The 17th State Senate District of Virginia is comprised of portions of Brunswick, Dinwiddie, Greensville, Isle of Wight, and Southampton counties, with the cities of Chesapeake, Emporia, Franklin, Portsmouth, and Suffolk also included. The district was won by President Biden in 2020 but is more of a battleground district than the previous 16th district. Democrats would be expected to win the district often, but a Republican win would not be out of the question.
17th District Total Registration Data (As of November 2023)
| County | Total |
| SD-17 | 166,004 |
| Total | 166,004 |
In the primary elections, the district was host to an open seat race. Democratic candidate Clint Jenkins ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Emily Brewer and Hermie Sadler faced off in the Republican primary. Brewer emerged victorious with 9,552 votes (58.77%), while Sadler took 6,700 votes (41.23%). Both Jenkins and Brewer advanced to the general election, which was thought to be competitive, although elections forecasters considered Brewer to have an edge.
17th District Election Data (In November Election)
| County/City | Brewer | Brewer % | Jenkins | Jenkins % | 3rd | Total |
| Brunswick | 2,558 | 49.08% | 2,650 | 50.84% | 4 | 5,212 |
| Chesapeake City | 13 | 12.38% | 91 | 86.67% | 1 | 105 |
| Dinwiddie | 2,335 | 79.91% | 584 | 19.99% | 3 | 2,922 |
| Emporia City | 579 | 40.72% | 834 | 58.65% | 9 | 1,422 |
| Franklin City | 1,177 | 46.16% | 1,369 | 53.69% | 4 | 2,550 |
| Greensville | 1,546 | 49.02% | 1,595 | 50.57% | 13 | 3,154 |
| Isle of Wight | 10,256 | 64.89% | 5,515 | 34.89% | 35 | 15,806 |
| Portsmouth City | 1,802 | 31.85% | 3,816 | 67.46% | 39 | 5,657 |
| Southampton | 4,653 | 65.96% | 2,389 | 33.87% | 12 | 7,054 |
| Suffolk City | 14,833 | 46.10% | 17,250 | 53.61% | 96 | 32,179 |
| Total | 39,752 | 52.26% | 36,093 | 47.45% | 216 | 76,061 |
| Margin | R +3,659 | R +4.81% |
In the general election, Brewer won four counties (Brunswick, Dinwiddie, Isle of Wight, Southampton) by a combined 19,802 -11,138 votes, netting her a margin of 8,664 votes. Meanwhile, Jenkins won the cities and Greensville County by a combined 24,955 – 19,950 votes, netting him a margin of 5,005 votes. In the end, Brewer’s net margin of 8,664 votes was enough to offset Jenkin’s 5,005 votes, allowing her to win the district 39,752 – 36,093 votes (52.26% – 47.45%), or by a margin of 3,659 votes (4.81%).
Virginia State Senate District 24
The 24th State Senate District of Virginia is composed of James City and York Counties, with the cities of Newport News, Poquoson, and Williamsburg included. The district is a Biden won district but is more competitive. However, Democrats would be expected to have a small edge in the district in most elections.
24th District Total Registration Data (As of November 2023)
| County | Total |
| SD-24 | 146,832 |
| Total | 146,832 |
In the primary elections, Democratic incumbent Monty Mason ran for re-election, running unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Republican challenger Danny Diggs ran unopposed in the Republican primary. Both candidates advanced to the general election held in November. Going into the election, some elections forecasters such as our very own Elections Daily rated the race as Diggs having a small edge, but others rated it as a tossup.
24th District Election Data (In November Election)
| County/City | Diggs | Diggs % | Mason | Mason % | 3rd | Total |
| James City County | 214 | 29.85% | 501 | 69.87% | 2 | 717 |
| Newport News City | 11,933 | 41.83% | 16,504 | 57.86% | 87 | 28,524 |
| Poquoson City | 4,264 | 78.04% | 1,193 | 21.83% | 7 | 5,464 |
| Williamsburg City | 1,420 | 27.30% | 3,773 | 72.54% | 8 | 5,201 |
| York | 16,121 | 58.80% | 11,256 | 41.06% | 39 | 27,416 |
| Total | 33,952 | 50.43% | 33,227 | 49.36% | 143 | 67,322 |
| Margin | R +725 | R +1.07% |
After the results of the general election started to filter in, it became apparent that this would be a close race, with Diggs winning a narrow victory against Mason. Diggs won Poquoson City and York County by a combined 20,385 – 12,449 votes, netting him a margin of 7,936 votes from just those two localities combined. Mason, on the other hand, won James City County, Newport News City, and Williamsburg City by a combined 20,778 – 13,567 votes, netting him a margin of 7,211 votes. At the end of the election, Diggs’s 7,936 vote margin overpowered Mason’s 7,211 votes, allowing Diggs to win the district 33,952 – 33,227 (50.43% – 49.36%), with a margin of 725 votes (1.07%). This seat will be a Democratic target in 2027.
Virginia State Senate District 27
The 27th State Senate District of Virginia is composed of Spotsylvania and Stafford Counties, with Fredericksburg City also included. The district was won by President Biden, although based on past performances, it would be host to a race more akin to a tossup in Virginia State Legislative elections.
27th District Total Registration Data (As of November 2023)
| County | Total |
| SD-27 | 157,139 |
| Total | 157,139 |
In the primary elections for the 27th district, as it involved an open seat race, Democratic candidate Joel Griffin emerged victorious in the Democratic primary with 6,331 votes (59.90%), while Ben Litchfield took 4,239 votes (40.10%). In the Republican primary, Tara Durant won the primary with 8,066 votes (56.96%) to Matt Strickland’s 6,094 votes (43.04%). Both Griffin and Durant advanced to the November general election with an independent candidate (Monica Gary), also advancing. Heading into the election, the race was seen as Republicans holding a small advantage.
27th District Election Data (In November Election)
| County/City | Durant | Durant % | Griffin | Griffin % | 3rd | Total |
| Fredericksburg City | 2,748 | 32.50% | 5,331 | 63.04% | 377 | 8,456 |
| Spotsylvania | 8,939 | 51.53% | 7,534 | 43.43% | 873 | 17,346 |
| Stafford | 22,493 | 49.72% | 20,062 | 44.35% | 2,685 | 45,240 |
| Total | 34,180 | 48.11% | 32,927 | 46.35% | 3,935 | 71,042 |
| Margin | R +1,253 | R +1.76% |
In the general election, Durant won the two counties (Spotsylvania and Stafford) in the district by a combined 31,432 – 27,596 votes, netting her a margin of 3,836 votes, while Griffin won Fredericksburg City 5,331 – 2,748 votes, netting him a margin of 2,583. In the end, Durant’s net margin allowed her to win the district narrowly 34,180 – 32,297 votes (48.11% – 46.35%), or by a margin of 1,253 votes (1.76%).
Virginia State Senate District 30
The 30th State Senate District of Virginia is in Northern Virginia and is composed of a portion of Prince William County, with the cities of Manassas and Manassas Park also included. The district was heavily won by President Biden in 2020, so this is a district that Democrats would be expected to hold easily.
30th District Total Registration Data (As of November 2023)
| County | Total |
| SD-30 | 135,238 |
| Total | 135,238 |
In the primary elections for the 30th District, Danica Roem ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Bill Woolf emerged victorious in the Republican primary with 4,998 votes (70.22%), while Republican Robert Ruffolo took 2,120 votes (29.78%). Both Roem and Woolf advanced to the general election held in November.
30th District Election Data (In November Election)
| County/City | Woolf | Woolf % | Roem | Roem % | 3rd | Total |
| Manassas City | 4,337 | 44.82% | 5,303 | 54.80% | 37 | 9,677 |
| Manassas Park City | 1,278 | 39.03% | 1,980 | 60.48% | 16 | 3,274 |
| Prince William | 22,625 | 49.22% | 23,216 | 50.50% | 130 | 45,971 |
| Total | 28,240 | 47.93% | 30,499 | 51.76% | 183 | 58,922 |
| Margin | D +2,259 | D +3.83% |
In the general election, Roem won the three components of the district, achieving a 30,499 – 28,240 (51.76% – 47.93%) vote victory, with a margin of 2,259 votes (3.83%). However, the margin was closer than the presidential numbers in 2020 would suggest, making Republicans take another look at this district in 2027.
Virginia State Senate District 31
The 31st State Senate District of Virginia is also located in Northern Virginia and composed of portions of Fauquier and Loudoun Counties. The district was won by a couple of points by President Biden in 2020, so Democrats would be expected to have a small edge here in most election years.
31st District Total Registration Data (As of November 2023)
| County | Total |
| SD-30 | 165,037 |
| Total | 165,037 |
In the primary elections for the 31st District, Republican incumbent Jill Vogel opted to retire rather than run for re-election, making this an open seat race. Democratic candidate Russet Perry won the Democratic primary with 8,733 votes (65.07%), while the other Democrat, Zach Cummings, took 4,688 votes (34.93%). Juan Segura, the Republican candidate, ran unopposed in his primary after Geary Higgins withdrew from the race. Both candidates advanced to the November general election, which was thought to have a small Democratic edge and therefore a flip of the seat’s affiliation.
31st District Election Data (In November Election)
| County/City | Segura | Segura % | Perry | Perry % | 3rd | Total |
| Fauquier | 5,334 | 57.76% | 3,890 | 42.13% | 10 | 9,234 |
| Loudoun | 36,421 | 45.79% | 42,931 | 53.98% | 186 | 79,538 |
| Total | 41,755 | 47.04% | 46,821 | 52.74% | 196 | 88,772 |
| Margin | D +5,066 | D +5.70% |
In the general election, Segura won Fauquier County 5,334 – 3,890 votes, while Perry won the more populous Loudoun County 42,931 – 36,321 votes, allowing Perry to win the district 46,821 – 41,755 votes (52.74% – 47.04%), or by a margin of 5,066 votes (5.70%). This district will be a reach Republican target in 2027.
