North Carolina Republicans Propose Harshest Gerrymander Yet

North Carolina Republicans officially unveiled their first set of redistricting maps on Wednesday. With the formerly Democratic-dominated state supreme court now firmly in Republican control, Republicans are hoping these new maps – which will be fast-tracked to passage in the coming weeks – will help them strengthen their hold on power.

Currently, Republicans hold supermajorities in both houses of the legislature, while the state’s House delegation is split evenly with seven Democrats and seven Republicans,

Congressional proposals

On the congressional level, North Carolina Republicans unveiled two competing proposals, both of which are designed to transform the state’s evenly-divided delegation into a firm Republican majority.

Senate Bill 757 (2023/CCJ-1)

District	Biden	Trump	Beasley	Budd	White	Hispanic	Black	Asian	Native
1	50.4%	48.7%	46.1%	52.0%	50.7%	6.1%	40.4%	1.1%	2.2%
2	66.6%	31.4%	66.5%	31.1%	57.0%	11.0%	24.0%	6.9%	1.8%
3	43.9%	54.7%	40.6%	57.2%	61.2%	7.8%	26.6%	2.2%	2.7%
4	72.2%	26.2%	73.0%	25.0%	55.8%	9.8%	21.7%	11.3%	1.9%
5	41.7%	57.1%	39.6%	58.0%	70.7%	6.5%	18.7%	2.4%	2.0%
6	41.2%	57.4%	38.9%	58.8%	66.2%	8.8%	19.3%	3.8%	2.3%
7	41.1%	57.4%	40.1%	57.5%	71.5%	7.4%	15.6%	2.0%	3.6%
8	40.1%	58.6%	38.4%	59.4%	63.6%	8.2%	17.1%	3.7%	7.7%
9	42.4%	56.2%	40.0%	57.8%	62.2%	10.5%	22.4%	2.6%	3.2%
10	41.3%	57.3%	39.3%	58.5%	69.5%	9.2%	16.6%	2.9%	2.2%
11	43.7%	54.7%	44.3%	53.1%	84.8%	6.2%	3.9%	1.3%	3.5%
12	74.1%	24.1%	72.9%	24.8%	39.5%	15.2%	38.3%	6.4%	2.0%
13	40.6%	57.8%	40.4%	57.4%	66.2%	10.7%	19.5%	1.6%	2.4%
14	41.3%	57.4%	41.0%	56.9%	70.8%	7.3%	15.9%	4.0%	2.2%
State	48.6%	49.9%	47.3%	50.5%	63.6%	8.9%	21.4%	3.7%	2.8%

Under this proposal, North Carolina would nominally have a map with 10 districts where Republicans are favored and four districts where Democrats are favored. However, NC-01 – an ancestrally Democratic area with a large black population – trended sharply right in 2022, going from a Biden+1.7 seat to a Budd+6 seat. Republicans would be favored to flip it from freshman Democrat Don Davis in 2024. This is a dilution from the current version, which is a Biden+7, Beasley+0.5 seat. Democrats Kathy Manning (NC-06), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), and Jeff Jackson (NC-14) would be locked into unwinnable double-digit Republican seats.

Democrats are likely to argue that this version of the seat would be a violation of the Voting Rights Act and demand it be struck down, like Alabama’s congressional map was. However, there are a few problems with this, the biggest being that the district isn’t currently protected by the Voting Rights Act. Under previous precedent in Cooper v. Harris (2017), the Supreme Court ruled that a previous version of the seat that was majority-black relied too heavily on race. It’s unclear how the Court would rule today, but the region’s declining black population makes it impossible to draw a compact, majority-black seat.

No other seat in the state would be competitive, although NC-11 in the state’s mountainous west would have been within 10 points in 2022. In the long-term, that might be closer than what North Carolina Republicans would like to see.

Senate Bill 756 (2023/CBP-5)

View the map in Dave’s Redistricting App

District	Biden	Trump	Beasley	Budd	White	Hispanic	Black	Asian	Native
1	72.6%	26.2%	72.3%	25.9%	46.0%	9.0%	38.6%	5.0%	2.2%
2	69.0%	29.0%	69.1%	28.4%	54.9%	10.3%	22.1%	11.6%	1.7%
3	44.8%	54.0%	41.5%	56.4%	60.4%	6.3%	30.3%	1.4%	1.9%
4	41.1%	57.5%	41.6%	56.2%	72.7%	8.3%	14.6%	2.3%	2.3%
5	42.2%	56.4%	39.9%	57.8%	69.8%	7.7%	18.0%	2.8%	2.1%
6	42.4%	56.2%	40.7%	57.1%	65.8%	8.0%	20.5%	3.8%	2.3%
7	42.7%	55.6%	41.5%	56.2%	70.7%	7.9%	16.3%	2.4%	2.8%
8	43.4%	55.1%	40.4%	57.4%	58.4%	11.0%	26.0%	2.4%	3.1%
9	41.7%	57.0%	40.4%	57.5%	59.8%	8.1%	19.8%	3.4%	9.4%
10	42.3%	56.2%	40.2%	57.6%	68.6%	9.3%	17.4%	2.9%	2.2%
11	43.4%	55.0%	44.0%	53.4%	84.8%	6.2%	3.9%	1.3%	3.5%
12	74.2%	24.1%	73.0%	24.8%	39.4%	15.2%	38.3%	6.4%	2.0%
13	41.4%	57.0%	40.8%	57.0%	67.9%	10.0%	17.9%	2.2%	2.2%
14	41.6%	57.1%	41.3%	56.5%	70.7%	7.2%	15.9%	4.2%	2.2%
State	48.6%	49.9%	47.3%	50.5%	63.6%	8.9%	21.4%	3.7%	2.8%

This alternative proposed North Carolina congressional map would be an even harsher gerrymander. Republicans would be favored outright in 11 districts while only three districts would favor Democrats. This map is a far more aggressive draw, cracking cities and counties far more egregiously than the first proposal. The result is a map that is slightly more consistent than the first, with most Republican districts having nearly identical partisanship. Like with the other proposal, Jackson, Manning, and Nickel would all be drawn out.

Under this proposal, the state treads on dangerous water by combining the state’s rural northeast with Durham. A district similar to this was struck down by the United States Supreme Court in Cooper v. Harris. This proposed district isn’t a 1:1 with the old, though. It isn’t majority-black, and changing demographics in the region suggest it might not be possible to draw a district that would consistently elect the candidate of choice for black voters. While the proposed 1st district here isn’t majority black, it has a large (38%) black population, and black voters would comprise a majority in the Democratic primary.

In this new NC-01, current Rep. Don Davis would be double-bunked with 4th district Rep. Valerie Foushee. Both are black, with Davis being a moderate Democrat and Foushee being a progressive. A majority of the district’s population resides in the Durham and Orange County portions, which would mean Foushee would likely be favored in a primary.

General Assembly

House

Under the proposed map, Donald Trump would have won 70/120 districts, two short of a supermajority required to override vetoes under the North Carolina Constitution. Ted Budd would have won 73/120 districts, with several other districts within striking range. The median district was Trump+10 and Budd+11, meaning Democrats would have essentially no chance at a majority. This is a far cry from the previous cycle’s map, which had a more balanced split of 61 Trump districts and 59 Biden districts.

Most of the major changes in this map are in urban areas, where districts were redrawn to provide more opportunities for Republicans. This includes the creation of new, Republican-leaning districts in Buncombe (HD116), Mecklenburg (HD112), and Wake (HD35) counties. Competitive seats in Alamance, Forsyth, Guilford, New Hanover, and Pitt counties were also redrawn. All these factors, combined with the success Republicans had in Biden districts in rural eastern North Carolina, means they would likely be favored to hold their supermajority in 2024 under this map.

State Senate

Under the proposed state senate map, both Trump and Burr would have won 32/50 districts, two more than needed to override a gubernatorial veto. This is a big change from the previous map, where Trump would have won 28 districts and Budd would have won 29.

The biggest changes in this map are in the rural east, where two sprawling districts (1 and 2) have been reconfigured to be double-digit Trump seats. Additionally, in New Hanover County, a chunk of urban Wilmington was drawn into district 8, turning a narrow Biden district into a Trump+5, Budd+5 seat.

Republicans also took the opportunity to redraw several urban districts to become more viable. In Wake County, SD18 was reconfigured from a Biden+4 seat to a Trump+2 district. Sydney Batch’s SD17 is now only a Biden+1 district, although it did vote for Cheri Beasley by a wider four-point margin.

Batch, who lost a House district in 2020 before being appointed her current position, is a figure Democrats are fairly high on. In Mecklenburg County, SD42 was reconfigured from a Biden+15 seat to a Biden+2 seat, Tillis+2 seat. Like in Wake, this district – part of the ancestrally Republican “wedge” – trended left in 2024, going to Beasley by four points. Both seats will be key Republican targets in 2024.

One of the few Democrats who will be happy with this new map is Val Applewhite, a first-termer from Cumberland County. She survived a closer-than-expected race in a Biden+9 district after beating a moderate incumbent in a primary, but will now represent a Biden+28 district.