Redistricting history and process
Once a sparsely populated state, Florida has emerged as one of the fastest-growing states. Florida has seen its population increase from just 968,000 people in 1920 to over 21.5 million in 2020, making it the third-largest state. The state has gained representatives in every Census since 1930, although the 2020 Census marked the first time since 1940 that Florida had only gained a single new district.
In Florida, congressional districts and legislative districts are both drawn by the legislature. While the Governor can veto congressional maps, they have no veto power over legislative maps. In 2010, voters passed ballot initiatives that further regulated the drawing of districts. Districts must be compact and contiguous, making use of cities, counties, and natural geographic boundaries. They cannot be drawn to explicitly favor either political party, or to discriminate against racial or linguistic minorities.
Under these standards, the Florida Supreme Court struck down the state’s congressional districts ahead of the 2016 elections, requiring new ones to be drawn. For the 2022 redistricting cycle, an initial attempt by the legislature to pass a map was vetoed by Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, who demanded a more aggressive map. As a result, the legislature ultimately passed a map that is a fairly extreme Republican gerrymander, although not quite an optimal one.
Under the current map, 20 congressional districts (71%) voted for Trump in 2020, compared to only eight (29%) that voted for Biden. This gerrymandering is most clearly visible in the Jacksonville area, where Duval County is split into two districts, as well as the Tampa area, where Democratic portions of St. Petersburg are paired with the bluest parts of Hillsborough County. In a fairer map, these two areas alone would likely yield Democrats an additional two or three districts. To a lesser extent, both the Orlando and Miami-Dade areas are also gerrymandered. Lawsuits have been filed challenging the legality of the map on 14th and 15th Amendment grounds, but the map remains in place while the lawsuits are ongoing.
Demographic breakdown
| District | White | Hispanic | Black | Asian | Native | Pacific |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72.2% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 65.5% | 6.4% | 23.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 67.7% | 10.6% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 55.3% | 7.8% | 31.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| 5 | 67.5% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 7.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| 6 | 74.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| 7 | 64.6% | 19.0% | 10.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| 8 | 74.9% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| 9 | 32.3% | 50.0% | 13.0% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| 10 | 38.5% | 28.6% | 26.0% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| 11 | 63.3% | 17.1% | 12.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 12 | 78.3% | 11.7% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| 13 | 77.2% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 14 | 49.4% | 26.0% | 19.1% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| 15 | 54.9% | 22.7% | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| 16 | 64.5% | 18.7% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 17 | 79.1% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| 18 | 59.8% | 23.7% | 13.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| 19 | 74.1% | 16.2% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| 20 | 23.5% | 23.0% | 50.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 21 | 68.1% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| 22 | 55.3% | 24.7% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| 23 | 58.4% | 20.5% | 13.2% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 24 | 18.2% | 38.5% | 42.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| 25 | 34.4% | 42.3% | 17.5% | 6.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| 26 | 19.7% | 73.2% | 6.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| 27 | 16.9% | 74.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| 28 | 15.2% | 73.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| State | 54.7% | 25.0% | 15.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
Florida ranks as one of the most diverse states. Over 45% of the voting-age population are racial minorities. However, while the state as a whole is quite diverse, minority populations are primarily concentrated in specific parts of the state. White voters make up a majority in most districts, with their population primarily concentrated in north and central Florida as well as most of the state’s eastern and western coasts. Black voters, who make up 15.5% of the voting-age population, are mainly concentrated in a handful of districts in South Florida, as well as the Tallahassee, Orlando, and Jacksonville areas.
Hispanics, who comprise 25% of the voting-age population, are heavily concentrated in South Florida and Osceola County. Unlike in many other states, where Hispanic voters have tended to be a Democratic bloc, Hispanics in Florida are a crucial swing group. Joe Biden carried Hispanic voters by a seven-point margin in 2020, while Ron DeSantis won Hispanic voters by a an 18-point margin in 2022 – almost identical to his statewide margin.
Florida Republicans have long relied on support of the state’s substantial Cuban population, whose staunch opposition to communist Cuba has translated to firm support for most Republican candidates. Perhaps no city exemplifies like like Hialeah, a city of over 220,000 people where 73% of residents are Cuban, 96% speak Spanish at home, and 67% of voters backed Trump in 2020. Both parties have also courted Puerto Rican voters, and the state’s two Republican Senators have both expressed support for statehood.
In addition to census-designated minority groups, Florida also has one of the largest Jewish populations in the country. Around 3% of Floridians identify as Jewish. Most Jewish Floridians live in South Florida, especially in Palm Beach County, where they make up over 10% of the population. Three South Florida members of Congress are Jewish – Lois Frankel (D, FL-22), Jared Moskowitz (D, FL-23), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D, FL-25).
| District | Bachelor’s or higher | Rank (of 435) | Non-college white | Rank (of 435) |
| 1 | 29.0% | 248 | 52.1% | 139 |
| 2 | 28.2% | 264 | 47.4% | 181 |
| 3 | 25.9% | 302 | 52.5% | 135 |
| 4 | 23.6% | 340 | 43.9% | 215 |
| 5 | 41.6% | 88 | 41.6% | 238 |
| 6 | 22.3% | 371 | 60.1% | 72 |
| 7 | 34.0% | 165 | 44.9% | 203 |
| 8 | 30.8% | 213 | 53.6% | 124 |
| 9 | 28.8% | 251 | 24.5% | 351 |
| 10 | 34.0% | 165 | 23.6% | 358 |
| 11 | 31.9% | 192 | 46.2% | 191 |
| 12 | 21.4% | 387 | 65.3% | 48 |
| 13 | 31.1% | 207 | 55.5% | 113 |
| 14 | 36.5% | 139 | 29.0% | 321 |
| 15 | 30.6% | 220 | 42.5% | 229 |
| 16 | 31.4% | 202 | 47.1% | 183 |
| 17 | 29.7% | 239 | 57.1% | 96 |
| 18 | 17.8% | 424 | 53.1% | 129 |
| 19 | 34.5% | 158 | 49.5% | 160 |
| 20 | 23.4% | 346 | 19.1% | 375 |
| 21 | 32.7% | 183 | 47.7% | 178 |
| 22 | 34.7% | 157 | 36.1% | 282 |
| 23 | 42.4% | 81 | 36.1% | 282 |
| 24 | 27.7% | 272 | 8.9% | 424 |
| 25 | 37.4% | 120 | 24.3% | 354 |
| 26 | 25.3% | 317 | 15.3% | 397 |
| 27 | 38.6% | 108 | 7.5% | 429 |
| 28 | 28.7% | 253 | 12.9% | 409 |
Florida’s college education rate is near the national average. Half of the state’s districts are in the top two quartiles, while the other half are in the bottom two. However, few seats in Florida skew in the first quartile, while many rank in the fourth. In particular, FL-18 – a rural district based in the Florida Heartland – ranks as the 11th-least college educated district in the country.
Despite the state’s average educational rank, Florida has a lower-than-expected non-college whites, especially compared to the rest of the south. 15 of the state’s districts rank in the first two quartiles, but only three districts (FL-06, FL-12, and FL-17) rank in the first quartile while eight rank in the fourth quartile. This is in large part due to Florida’s diverse population, especially compared to the rest of the south. This means that white-working class voters have relatively little power compared to many other southern states.
Political history
| District | Biden | Trump | Margin | Shift |
| 1 | 32.9% | 65.1% | R+32.2% | D+5.7% |
| 2 | 43.9% | 54.8% | R+11.0% | D+0.9% |
| 3 | 42.4% | 56.4% | R+14.1% | D+0.6% |
| 4 | 45.9% | 52.6% | R+6.7% | D+3.8% |
| 5 | 41.4% | 57.1% | R+15.7% | D+6.2% |
| 6 | 37.7% | 61.3% | R+23.6% | R+0.2% |
| 7 | 46.6% | 52.1% | R+5.5% | D+2.2% |
| 8 | 40.5% | 58.1% | R+17.6% | D+3.0% |
| 9 | 58.1% | 40.7% | D+17.4% | R+8.9% |
| 10 | 65.1% | 33.4% | D+31.7% | R+0.5% |
| 11 | 44.1% | 54.9% | R+10.9% | D+4.1% |
| 12 | 35.1% | 63.7% | R+28.7% | R+0.3% |
| 13 | 46.0% | 52.7% | R+6.7% | D+1.1% |
| 14 | 58.8% | 39.7% | D+19.1% | R+2.5% |
| 15 | 47.7% | 50.9% | R+3.1% | D+0.7% |
| 16 | 45.0% | 53.8% | R+8.9% | D+3.7% |
| 17 | 41.6% | 57.5% | R+15.9% | D+0.6% |
| 18 | 38.0% | 60.8% | R+22.8% | R+1.5% |
| 19 | 39.1% | 60.1% | R+21.0% | D+2.2% |
| 20 | 75.7% | 23.5% | D+52.3% | R+4.9% |
| 21 | 44.9% | 54.3% | R+9.4% | D+0.8% |
| 22 | 58.4% | 40.8% | D+17.6% | R+2.6% |
| 23 | 56.2% | 43.0% | D+13.2% | R+1.0% |
| 24 | 74.1% | 25.2% | D+49.0% | R+14.5% |
| 25 | 59.5% | 39.7% | D+19.9% | R+8.6% |
| 26 | 40.5% | 58.8% | R+18.3% | R+21.9% |
| 27 | 49.5% | 49.8% | R+0.3% | R+17.6% |
| 28 | 46.5% | 52.8% | R+6.3% | R+21.9% |
| State | 47.9% | 51.2% | R+3.4% | R+2.2% |
Long a competitive swing state, Florida has shown signs of change in recent years. Democrats were once confident that Florida could emerge as a modern New York; instead, the state has shifted rightward as conservative retirees and Hispanics have reshaped the state’s political climate.
Former President Donald Trump carried Florida in 2016 despite losing the popular vote, and even increased his margin of victory in 2020 while his popular vote slipped nationally. In 2018’s historic blue wave, Republicans managed to flip a Senate seat held by uncontroversial and popular incumbent Bill Nelson. Nelson – best known for having flown on Space Shuttle Mission STS-61-C aboard the Columbia – was defeated by then-Governor Rick Scott. Finally in 2022, Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election by a 19-point margin – the largest for a Republican gubernatorial candidate since 1868. While it’s unclear to what degree these record gains will hold in a higher-turnout 2024, one thing is now clear: Florida is no longer a premier swing state.
Although the current congressional map favors Republicans, and Florida Democrats have little reason to feel confident about the future of their party, there are a handful of competitive or trending districts. In particular, CDs 4, 7, 13, 15, 21, and 27 were all decided by single-digit margins. More importantly, all of these districts (with the exception of FL-27, which rocketed nearly 18 points to the right) trended Democratic from 2016 to 2020. If Florida Democrats are able to get their act together, they could feasibly compete in at least some of these districts at some point in the next decade.
2022 election results
| District | Incumbent | Republican | Democratic | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Gaetz (R) | 67.9% | 32.1% | R+35.7% |
| 2 | Al Lawson (D) | 59.8% | 40.2% | R+19.6% |
| 3 | Kat Cammack (R) | 62.5% | 36.3% | R+26.2% |
| 4 | OPEN | 60.5% | 39.5% | R+21% |
| 5 | John Rutherford (R) | 100.0% | N/A | Uncontested |
| 6 | Michael Waltz (R) | 75.3% | 0% | R+75.3% |
| 7 | OPEN | 58.5% | 41.5% | R+17.0% |
| 8 | Bill Posey (R) | 64.9% | 35.1% | R+29.8% |
| 9 | Darren Soto (D) | 46.4% | 53.6% | D+7.2% |
| 10 | OPEN | 38.4% | 59.0% | R+20.6% |
| 11 | Daniel Webster (R) | 63.1% | 35.4% | R+27.7% |
| 12 | Gus Bilirakis (R) | 70.4% | 29.6% | R+40.8% |
| 13 | OPEN | 53.1% | 45.1% | R+8.0% |
| 14 | Kathy Castor (D) | 43.1% | 56.9% | D+13.8% |
| 15 | NEW | 58.5% | 41.5% | R+17.0% |
| 16 | Vern Buchanan (R) | 62.1% | 37.9% | 24.3% |
| 17 | Greg Steube (R) | 63.8% | 35.5% | 28.3% |
| 18 | Scott Franklin (R) | 74.7% | 0.0% | R+49.4% |
| 19 | Byron Donalds (R) | 68.0% | 32.0% | R+36% |
| 20 | OPEN | 27.7% | 72.3% | D+44.6% |
| 21 | Brian Mast (R) | 63.5% | 36.5% | R+27% |
| 22 | Lois Frankel (D) | 44.9% | 55.1% | D+10.2% |
| 23 | OPEN | 46.8% | 51.6% | D+4.8% |
| 24 | Frederica Wilson (D) | 28.2% | 71.8% | D+43.6% |
| 25 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) | 44.9% | 55.1% | D+10.2% |
| 26 | Mario Díaz-Balart (R) | 70.9% | 29.1% | R+41.7% |
| 27 | Maria Elvira Salazar (R) | 57.3% | 42.7% | R+14.6% |
| 28 | Carlos Giménez (R) | 63.7% | 36.3% | R+27.4% |
Florida Republicans outperformed virtually all expectations in 2022. They managed to secure their expected 20-8 advantage, winning every competitive seat while giving Democrats a scare in reliably blue seats like FL-09 (Biden+17, Soto+7) and FL-23 (Biden+13, Moskowitz+5). On a national scale, Florida sticks out like as a sore thumb as one of only a handful of states to experience a genuine red wave.
Downballot House Republicans rode this red wave in most districts, routinely outperforming Trump by double-digit margins. No Democrat outperformed Biden in any district. The closest one came was FL-13, where hard-right Republican Anna Paulina Luna won by an 8% margin, only barely above Trump’s 6.7% margin in 2020. In a more neutral environment, Luna, the first Mexican-American elected to Congress from Florida, could potentially be at risk in her marginally competitive district.
Current representatives
- FL-01: Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville)
- FL-02: Neal Dunn (R-Panama City)
- FL-03: Kat Cammack (R-Gainesville)
- FL-04: Aaron Bean (R-Fernandina Beach)
- FL-05: John Rutherford (R-Jacksonville)
- FL-06: Michael Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach)
- FL-07: Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach)
- FL-08: Bill Posey (R-Rockledge)
- FL-09: Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee)
- FL-10: Maxwell Frost (D-Orlando)
- FL-11: Daniel Webster (R-Clermont)
- FL-12: Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor)
- FL-13: Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg)
- FL-14: Kathy Castor (D-Tampa)
- FL-15: Laurel Lee (R-Tampa)
- FL-16: Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota)
- FL-17: Greg Steube (R-Sarasota)
- FL-18: Scott Franklin (R-Lakeland)
- FL-19: Byron Donalds (R-Naples)
- FL-20: Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar)
- FL-21: Brian Mast (R-Fort Pierce)
- FL-22: Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach)
- FL-23: Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland)
- FL-24: Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens)
- FL-25: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston)
- FL-26: Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Miami)
- FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami)
- FL-28: Carlos Giménez (R-Miami)
