In the 2022 election for California State Controller (which possesses many of the same functions as the position of statewide Auditor in other states), incumbent Controller Betty Yee, a Democra, was unable to run for re-election. California has not elected a Republican to the office since 1975; Yee had defeated her opponent in 2018 by a margin of 31 percentage points.
Two candidates advanced to the November general election after the primary. The candidate who placed first in the statewide primary, Lanhee Chen, was an academic professor who also belonged to the Hoover Institution, a think tank that most consider conservative-leaning. Chen advocated for using the State Controller’s office as a counter to the California State Legislature’s spending. The second-highest performing candidate in the primary, Democrat Malia Cohen, was the presumptive favorite in the election. Cohen, an incumbent officeholder of the Second District of the California State Board of Equalization, ran her campaign on using the office of state controller to achieve several progressive priorities.
The main difference between the two candidates came to their proposed usage of audits, a power of the State Controller. Lanhee Chen wanted to use the power to investigate several high-profile California projects that were initiated by the state, such as the high-speed train linking parts of California together. Cohen, for her part, wanted to use the auditing system to achieve progressive equity goals.
The Election Results
When all of the ballots were tallied Cohen secured the victory. However, Chen achieved a substantial overperformance from other Republicans. The final tally statewide was 5,936,856 (55.3%) to 4,789,345 (44.7%). Chen garnered 44.7% of the statewide vote, whereas Brian Dahle, the Republican candidate for Governor, attained only 40.8% of the statewide vote. This allowed Chen to carry San Luis Obispo County, which Chen failed to win. Chen also did extremely well in southern California. However, Chen interestingly ran behind other Republicans in some parts of the state. Like in my previous article, I’ll be examining this election using the proposed “Six Californias” regional divides.
State of Jefferson
The proposed State of Jefferson is located in the northernmost reaches of California. This region is one of the most Republican-leaning regions in the state of California and is one that Republican candidates would be expected to win by double-digits. The population centers of the region are Butte, Humboldt, and Shasta counties, with Butte and Shasta being typically Republican-leaning and Humboldt being Democratic-leaning.
| County | Chen (R) | Cohen (D) | Total Votes | Chen % | Cohen % |
| Butte | 40,057 | 30,817 | 70,874 | 56.52% | 43.48% |
| Colusa | 3,821 | 1,643 | 5,464 | 69.93% | 30.07% |
| Del Norte | 4,979 | 3,259 | 8,238 | 60.44% | 39.56% |
| Glenn | 5,707 | 2,073 | 7,780 | 73.35% | 26.65% |
| Humboldt | 18,070 | 28,917 | 46,987 | 38.46% | 61.54% |
| Lake | 10,151 | 9,735 | 19,886 | 51.05% | 48.95% |
| Lassen | 7,314 | 1,729 | 9,043 | 80.88% | 19.12% |
| Mendocino | 11,137 | 18,842 | 29,979 | 37.15% | 62.85% |
| Modoc | 2,568 | 772 | 3,340 | 76.89% | 23.11% |
| Plumas | 5,364 | 3,151 | 8,515 | 62.99% | 37.01% |
| Shasta | 48,042 | 19,209 | 67,251 | 71.44% | 28.56% |
| Siskiyou | 10,969 | 6,451 | 17,420 | 62.97% | 37.03% |
| Tehama | 14,956 | 5,423 | 20,379 | 73.39% | 26.61% |
| Trinity | 2,582 | 1,893 | 4,475 | 57.70% | 42.30% |
| Total | 185,717 | 133,914 | 319,631 | 58.10% | 41.90% |
| Margin | R +51,803 | R +16.21% |
In Jefferson, Cohen carried Humboldt and Mendocino counties (which cast 46,987 and 29,979 votes) with 61.54% and 62.85% of the vote. These counties are the most Democratic in the region of Jefferson, and a Democratic candidate would be expected to carry them in a typical election. It should be noted that Cohen’s margins were down from the 61.80% that Governor Newsom garnered in Humboldt, although she outperformed Newsom in Mendocino, with Newsom achieving 62.61%. Chen carried all of the other counties in the region.
A political observer can see some of the underperformance of Chen when compared to Dahle, as some of the margins in the rural counties were not as high as the ones Dahle garnered in his run for governor. This may have to do with the fact that Chen distanced himself from other Republican candidates, and it should be noted that 319,631 voters turned out for the Controller race, whereas 325,247 voters turned out in the Gubernatorial race. In the end, Chen won the region of Jefferson by a margin of 51,803 votes, attaining 16.21% of the vote, which was slightly down from Dahle’s margin of 58,001 votes and vote percentage of 17.83%.
North California
North California is a region that leans Democratic due to the presence of the city and state capitol of Sacramento as well as several counties in the Bay Area. North California is a region most Democratic candidates would be expected to carry by respectable margins. The population centers of North California are El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Solano, and Sonoma, with the rest being mostly rural counties that lean Republican.
| County | Chen (R) | Cohen (D) | Total Votes | Chen % | Cohen % |
| Amador | 12,411 | 5,804 | 18,215 | 68.14% | 31.86% |
| El Dorado | 54,471 | 32,460 | 86,931 | 62.66% | 37.34% |
| Marin | 30,772 | 85,110 | 115,882 | 26.55% | 73.45% |
| Napa | 19,083 | 30,166 | 49,249 | 38.75% | 61.25% |
| Nevada | 24,358 | 25,685 | 50,043 | 48.67% | 51.33% |
| Placer | 109,976 | 68,727 | 178,703 | 61.54% | 38.46% |
| Sacramento | 216,346 | 252,731 | 469,077 | 46.12% | 53.88% |
| Sierra | 1,009 | 527 | 1,536 | 65.69% | 34.31% |
| Solano | 54,260 | 74,879 | 129,139 | 42.02% | 57.98% |
| Sonoma | 61,770 | 132,453 | 194,223 | 31.80% | 68.20% |
| Sutter | 18,637 | 8,974 | 27,611 | 67.50% | 32.50% |
| Yolo | 25,181 | 41,486 | 66,667 | 37.77% | 62.23% |
| Yuba | 12,861 | 6,510 | 19,371 | 66.39% | 33.61% |
| Total | 641,135 | 765,512 | 1,406,647 | 45.58% | 54.42% |
| Margin | D +124,377 | D +8.84% |
In the region of North California, a similar pattern emerges to the gubernatorial race, with the counties towards the coast being carried by the Democratic candidate and the counties further inland, except for Nevada county, being carried by the Republican candidates.
It should be noted that, compared to the Gubernatorial race, Chen overperformed in the region, improving on Dahle’s margins in each county that Cohen carried, as well as the more populated parts of the rural band of counties, such as Placer. In some of the rural counties, however, he did not run as well as Dahle, but the increase in votes cast for Chen in the more populated parts of the region was more than enough for Chen to improve upon Dahle’s margin in the region overall. An example of Chen’s overperformance in the region is that Chen attained 46.12% of the vote in Sacramento county, whereas Dahle achieved 42.49% of the vote in that same county in his run for governor. It should also be noted that there were 1,406,647 votes cast in the region in the Controller election, down slightly from the 1,431,405 votes cast in the Gubernatorial election. However, this overperformance by Chen meant that Cohen won the region of North California by a margin of 124,377 votes with 8.84% of the vote, down from Newsom’s 211,643 and 14.79% margin.
Silicon Valley
Silicon Valley is a metropolitan area comprised of the Bay Area and its surrounding counties. The counties that make up the region of Silicon Valley are Alameda, Contra Costa, Monterey, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz. This region is typically one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic areas in the state. This is an area that Democratic candidates would be expected to perform exceptionally well in, as most of the counties are more populated and in the coastal region, which tends to be Democratic. The four most major population centers of the district are Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, and Santa Clara counties.
| County | Chen (R) | Cohen (D) | Total Votes | Chen % | Cohen % |
| Alameda | 126,658 | 353,471 | 480,129 | 26.38% | 73.62% |
| Contra Costa | 139,100 | 242,864 | 381,964 | 36.42% | 63.58% |
| Monterey | 39,937 | 60,859 | 100,796 | 39.62% | 60.38% |
| San Benito | 9,213 | 10,023 | 19,236 | 47.89% | 52.11% |
| San Francisco | 70,094 | 221,334 | 291,428 | 24.05% | 75.95% |
| San Mateo | 76,335 | 165,742 | 242,077 | 31.53% | 68.47% |
| Santa Clara | 195,791 | 337,048 | 532,839 | 36.74% | 63.26% |
| Santa Cruz | 29,006 | 73,280 | 102,286 | 28.36% | 71.64% |
| Total | 686,134 | 1,464,621 | 2,150,755 | 31.90% | 68.10% |
| Margin | D +778,487 | D +36.20% |
As expected, Cohen carried every county in the region, most by wide margins. However, in terms of margin, she ran well behind Newsom in the region. Chen managed to improve on Dahle’s margins in each of the counties, bringing down Cohen’s margin of victory in the region. For example, Chen garnered 36.74% of the vote in Santa Clara County, while Dahle won only 29.99%.
Another example is Alameda County. In this county, Chen won 26.38% of the vote, whereas Dahle won 20.68%. In the end, Chen’s overperformance meant that Cohen carried the region by 788,487 votes and a percentage of 36.20%, which was down from the 1,065,978 votes and 48.60% margin that Newsom carried the region by.
Central California
Central California includes the swingy Central Valley, which often oscillates between the two major parties on a down-ballot level. The region is also majority Latino and is home to a major agricultural presence. Central California is made up of Alpine, Calaveras, Fresno, Inyo, Kern, Kings, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, Mono, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Tulare, and Tuolumne counties, with Fresno, Kern, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus being the major population centers.
| County | Chen (R) | Cohen (D) | Total Votes | Chen % | Cohen % |
| Alpine | 260 | 345 | 605 | 42.98% | 57.02% |
| Calaveras | 14,055 | 6,944 | 20,999 | 66.93% | 33.07% |
| Fresno | 124,029 | 89,626 | 213,655 | 58.05% | 41.95% |
| Inyo | 4,065 | 3,199 | 7,264 | 55.96% | 44.04% |
| Kern | 117,479 | 68,773 | 186,252 | 63.08% | 36.92% |
| Kings | 17,362 | 9,169 | 26,531 | 65.44% | 34.56% |
| Madera | 23,854 | 12,683 | 36,537 | 65.29% | 34.71% |
| Mariposa | 4,920 | 2,829 | 7,749 | 63.49% | 36.51% |
| Merced | 30,065 | 24,528 | 54,593 | 55.07% | 44.93% |
| Mono | 2,131 | 2,339 | 4,470 | 47.67% | 52.33% |
| San Joaquin | 91,990 | 83,204 | 175,194 | 52.51% | 47.49% |
| Stanislaus | 76,242 | 53,199 | 129,441 | 58.90% | 41.10% |
| Tulare | 57,899 | 32,418 | 90,317 | 64.11% | 35.89% |
| Tuolumne | 14,738 | 8,159 | 22,897 | 64.37% | 35.63% |
| Total | 579,089 | 397,415 | 976,504 | 59.30% | 40.70% |
| Margin | R +181,674 | R +18.60% |
Chen carried all but two of the counties in the region, the lone exceptions being the ski country counties of Alpine and Mono. When comparing some of the numbers to the gubernatorial race, Chen once again overperformed in all of the counties in the region, improving on Dahle’s margins in all of the counties.
For example, in the largest population center, Fresno, Chen won 58.05% of the vote compared to Dahle’s 55.08%. This enabled Chen to carry the region of Central California by 181,674 votes and a margin of 18.60%, above Dahle’s margin of 161,871 and 16.33%.
West California
West California is located on the southern coast of California. The region is dominated by Los Angeles County, which overwhelmingly votes for Democratic candidates. Of the other three counties, San Luis Obispo County is politically competitive, and Santa Barbara and Ventura counties are typically Democratic-leaning.
| County | Chen (R) | Cohen (D) | Total Votes | Chen % | Cohen % |
| Los Angeles | 867,338 | 1,450,372 | 2,317,710 | 37.42% | 62.58% |
| San Luis Obispo | 62,292 | 55,217 | 117,509 | 53.01% | 46.99% |
| Santa Barbara | 58,305 | 74,339 | 132,644 | 43.96% | 56.04% |
| Ventura | 134,524 | 141,450 | 275,974 | 48.75% | 51.25% |
| Total | 1,122,459 | 1,721,378 | 2,843,837 | 39.47% | 60.53% |
| Margin | D +598,919 | D +21.06% |
Cohen carried Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties with 62.58%, 56.04%, and 51.25%, while candidate Chen carried San Luis Obispo county with 53.01% of the vote. When compared to the 2022 gubernatorial race, there is once again clear overperfomance by Chen in the region.
For example, Chen attained 37.42% of the vote in Los Angeles county, whereas Dahle achieved only 32.19%. Lanhee Chen also flipped San Luis Obispo, and was one of the few Republican candidates who have carried the county in recent years. Overall, Chen’s overperformance meant that Cohen only carried Western California by 598,919 votes with a margin of 21.06%, whereas Newsom carried it by 905,020 votes with a margin of 30.94%.
South California
The sixth and final region is the proposed state of South California, consisting of Imperial, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego counties. This region usually is the most competitive of the regions in the state, but has a Democratic bent at the presidential level. Orange and San Diego counties are the major population centers in the region. Orange County is a politically competitive area that has a slight Democratic lean to it in regards to voter registration, despite having been a bastion of conservatism in earlier decades. Riverside and San Bernardino usually lean Democratic in presidential elections, but are more competitive in midterm elections. San Diego and Imperial counties are the most Democratic parts of the region.
| County | Chen (R) | Cohen (D) | Total Votes | Chen % | Cohen % |
| Imperial | 13,108 | 16,363 | 29,471 | 44.48% | 55.52% |
| Orange | 525,865 | 433,965 | 959,830 | 54.79% | 45.21% |
| Riverside | 312,376 | 273,998 | 586,374 | 53.27% | 46.73% |
| San Bernardino | 239,812 | 208,123 | 447,935 | 53.54% | 46.46% |
| San Diego | 483,650 | 521,567 | 1,005,217 | 48.11% | 51.89% |
| Total | 1,574,811 | 1,454,016 | 3,028,827 | 51.99% | 48.01% |
| Margin | R +120,795 | R +3.99% |
Like Dahle in the gubernatorial race, Chen carried Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino while Cohen carried Imperial and San Diego. Chen’s overperformance in this region is noteworthy. He came far closer to winning San Diego County than Dahle, receiving 48.11% of the vote as opposed to 44.22%. Chen also carried Orange by nearly 10 points and secured solid margins in both Riverside and San Bernadino.
Overall, Chen carried the region by 120,795 votes and a margin of 3.99%, which was a clear overperformance over Dahle, who lost the region by a margin of 44,420 votes and 1.45%.
Review and outlook for the 2026 California Controller Election
Despite Chen’s overperformances, he did not come close to winning statewide. California is, after all, a strongly Democratic state. Cohen’s performance, while subpar, was still enough to carry the state by a wide margin. Chen’s gains can in large part be attributed to his large overperformances in the Bay Area and West California, traditionally Democratic areas where he showed a surprising amount of appeal.
State Controller Cohen will likely run for re-election, and it remains to be seen whether Lanhee Chen will run again. 2026 could be an election held in any number of political environments, but Cohen will be favored. One thing to also keep an eye on: if more Republican candidates than Chen run, Republicans may splinter the vote amongst themselves and get locked out of the election, meaning two Democrats could advance to the general election. All in all, Chen’s overperformance is noteworthy enough to be considered somewhat of a rising star in the California Republican Party; it’s possible he might run for other offices other than Controller.
