DDHQ Morning News Spotlight: LA Mayor Race on Brink of Runoff, Plus Loss for Progressives in SF DA Recall

Welcome to this morning’s Decision Desk HQ Morning News Spotlight on Elections Daily as part of the Decision Desk HQ News Network.

Morning Headlines

• The Los Angeles Mayor race will very likely be determined in a November runoff between Businessman Rick Caruso and Representative Karen Bass. Caruso is poised to win a plurality of the primary vote, and currently holds a 42%-37% lead over Bass. To avoid the runoff though, Caruso must reach a difficult 50% threshold. Caruso is backed by LA moderates, while Bass boasts a more progressive base.
• National progressives are disappointed after leftist San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin was easily recalled by voters. Boudin was under attack for being too soft on crime while his supporters attempted the cast the recall effort as Republican-backed. Boudin’s replacement will be appointed by the more moderate Democratic Mayor of San Francisco, London Breed. Boudin ran best in traditional white liberal strongholds, but especially lost areas with more Asian voters.
• Two GOP House Incumbents in Mississippi are in the fights of their lives. In MS-03, Michael Guest voted for the Jan 6th commission and has been under attack by the America First wing of the GOP. He’s losing to US Navy Vet Michael Cassidy by a 48-47%, but it appears likely the race heads to a runoff. Trump did not endorse Cassidy, who holds some of the more bizarre policy stances seen by a serious contender. Cassidy supports a full 10-year ban on all immigration and a $20,000 wedding gift to married couples, required to be paid back if the couple divorces. In MS-04, GOP Incumbent Steven Palazzo will be joined in a runoff by one of two challengers. Palazzo is beloved by the American First wing of the party, but he is caught up in a serious investigation by the House Ethics committee. Some expected he would cruise to re-election, similar to Ken Paxton in the TX AG race, but Palazzo only won 35% of the primary vote.
• Incumbent GOP Representative David Valadao has surprisingly struggled thus far in his CA-22 Primary. Although he has not yet built a comfortable lead over his more right-wing competition with around 40% of the vote reporting, he is still favored to advance to the general election. The only Democrat in the race, Rudy Salas, appears to have an easy path to advance to the general election this fall with over 40% of the vote. Valadao voted to impeach Donald Trump but also has extreme crossover appeal in the General Election this fall. Valadao outperformed Trump by 12% in the 2020 general election to flip his district red. In CA-40, Incumbent moderate Republican Young Kim is on the brink of advancing to the General Election to face Asif Mahmood. Kim faced primary competition from the more right-wing Greg Raths.
• Gavin Newson and Alex Padilla appear poised to cruise into their November General Elections after dominating their primaries. Newsom will face Republican Brian Dahle in November (he attempted to boost Dahle over Independent Michael Shellenberger because he viewed Dahle as an easier general election matchup).
• Establishment GOP picks in NJ (Chris Smith and Tom Kean Jr. ) won by healthy but not overwhelming margins against the more right-wing competition in their House Primaries. Incumbent Chris Smith was opposed by more right-wing voters after his votes to certify the 2020 Presidential Election, for the January 6th commission, and for the infrastructure bill. Tom Kean Jr., son of the popular New Jersey mayor Tom Kean, will be favored to flip NJ-07 red in his battle against incumbent Tom Malinowski this fall.

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