How Black Voters Cost Kamala Harris the 2024 Election

As Trump made significant gains among minorities in 2024, his inroads were concentrated mainly among Hispanic and Asian voters, with Black constituents remaining more loyal to the Democratic Party. A report from Catalist, for instance, found Latinos shifting 9% to the right last fall, more than twice as much as the 4-point swing registered among Black voters. Still, considering how overwhelmingly Blacks vote for Democrats, even minor defections among their ranks or turnout fluctuations may gravely hurt the Democratic coalition:. This was visible considering three Black-Belt states that swung in Trump’s favor where African Americans make up a significant portion of the electorate and have the power to significantly alter the outcome of an election: Virginia, Georgia and North Carolina.

Trump gained with Rural Black Voters

Looking at the share of vote in predominantly Black areas, the trend across southern competitive states is uniform: while Harris held on to African American voters in highly-segregated, urban areas, Trump made important gains in rural communities, appealing to socially conservative Black voters outside of urban regions. 

It is true that Trump fared extraordinarily better for a Republican candidate in high population density areas, from Northern Virginia to downtown Atlanta, but his outperformance in these regions was a consequence of momentous shifts among Hispanic and Asian voters, rather than Blacks, who stuck to Harris across US cities. 

On the other hand, rural areas throughout the country only marginally shifted right, having hit something similar to a saturation point in terms of support for Trump. The exception was represented by Black-Belt rural counties with a high share of Black population, which decisively swung in Trump’s favor both in Virginia and Georgia.

Participation Problem

Black voters switching their allegiance from the Democratic to the Republican Party was not the only problem that afflicted Harris in 2024: in fact, when it comes to the African American electorate, turnout is often the most important factor. Black voters are so overwhelmingly Democratic – Catalist estimated Harris received 85% of the Black vote – that even minor fluctuations in the levels of participation may alter the outcome of elections. 

Under this optic, the combination of population growth and turnout – which effectively measures how motivated people are to vote –  ended up significantly hurting Harris chances to win crucial battleground states like Georgia or North Carolina, or narrow her losses in the Commonwealth of Virginia. 

The first issue Harris faced was low turnout in urban areas. Fast-growing regions where population has ballooned in recent years and where Trump’s inroads among Blacks were seriously limited, they presented an opportunity for Harris to increase her raw-vote margin over her opponent. Still, these same regions registered a significant turnout drop – in other words, the number of people who cast a ballot did not increase as much as the number of eligible voters – that canceled out the effect of a growing minority population and resulted in virtually no change when it comes to raw-vote margins compared to four years earlier.

Ironically for Harris, the Black participation problem was significantly reduced in rural regions, right where she fared worst in terms of swing in the share of votes cast for the Democratic Party. In Georgia, the change in turnout in rural, Black counties was in line with the rest of the state, while in North Carolina participation among rural Blacks increased even more than in the rest of the Tar Heel State. 

The problem for Harris? Additionally to Trump making inroads into socially conservative voters, the population in these rural areas significantly decreased in recent years, effectively reducing the number of voters Democrats can rely on. In other words, even if the ratio of ballots cast over eligible voters increased, a significant population drop resulted in the Democratic raw-vote margin shrinking, therefore hurting Harris prospects of victory.

This trend is clear in Georgia and North Carolina: in the Peach State, the percentage decrease of votes cast for Democrats decreased more in counties with the highest shares of Black population, offsetting Harris gains in Atlanta suburbs. The same applies in North Carolina, where Harris solid defense of Black voters in big cities – from Charlotte to Raleigh – was tarnished by a net loss in rural communities where population is decreasing.

Overall, despite Black voters stuck to Harris way more than other minority groups did, a combination of factors ended up hurting the Democratic ticket last fall and may bode poorly for future Democratic hopefuls. Disaffection towards the political class highly-segregated, fast growing urban centers coupled with conservative gains in rural areas registering population decrease means that Democrats need to work hard to electorally to firmly maintain Black voters in their coalition and keep benefiting from the political allegiance of African Americans.