Don’t Expect Trump to Lose More Popularity Near the Midterms 

Americans are souring on President Trump. With an approval rating of 37%  according to Gallup and difficulties in selling to voters his legislation agenda, government cuts and approach to deportations and the Epstein files, the President finds himself in a rather complicated position ahead of the 2026 midterms.  

While the GOP has a substantial 53-seat majority in the Senate, making it extremely hard for them to lose as many as 4 seats barring a blue wave, Democrats need to flip only 3 House seats in order to retain control of the Chamber and effectively chain Trump’s political power, possibly launching scathing investigations into the administration or attempting to impeach the President – even though current redistricting efforts may change the math. 

Democratic struggles

On the other hand, the Democratic Party seems to have its own problems in appealing to voters. The party has hit a favorability record-low, with deep divisions among its own ranks, and is still grappling with how to deal with the second Trump administration. Progressives argue the party needs to fight harder against Republican policies, while the moderate wing maintains a pragmatic focus and is more prone to compromise. This rift will come to the spotlight in September as Congress tees up for another spending fight, with Republicans needing at least 7 Democratic votes in the Senate in order to overcome the filibuster and pass an appropriation bill to keep the government funded. In March, 10 Democrats voted to advance a stopgap measure to stave off a shutdown, drawing a fierce backlash from the party’s base and progressives, who had advocated for a more combative use of their leverage. 

Looking at historical trends, Democrats can be relieved given that the president’s party generally loses House seats in the midterms, with the latest exceptions coming under extremely specific circumstances in 1998 and 2002 under Clinton and Bush. On top of that, presidents tend to lose popularity later on the first half of their terms as the midterms approach. Considering that Trump is, at this point, already the most unpopular president in history and Democrats hold a 4-point advantage in the Congressional General Ballot according to the RealClearPolling average, prospects would look fairly dim for the GOP. But there is a caveat: Democrats cannot bank on Trump’s popularity falling as deeply as other presidents’ did 6 months into their first term. 

Part of this is to ascribe to Trump never enjoying a “honeymoon” with the American people: a temporary period when recently-inaugurated presidents register remarkably high approval ratings, mainly due to a portion of the opposite party’s voters giving the new commander-in-chief the benefit of the doubt. It is true that Trump was marginally more popular back in February, with 47% of Americans approving of his job, but his numbers were still significantly lower than Joe Biden’s 57% or Barack Obama’s 67% approval rating at the begging of their first terms.  

A highly polarized environment coupled with the president’s love-him-or-hate-him character  means it is increasingly difficult for Democratic voters to express positive feeling towards Trump, limiting how much his approval ratings can grow. Such a divisive figure results in voters’ opinion of the President being more ingrained and less likely to be susceptible to external changes: consequently, Trump has showed a remarkable ability to challenge the laws of presidential popularity.  

Six of the eight presidents that served from 1976 to 2024 registered high approval ratings 6 months into their terms – at the end of their honeymoon period – only to see their popularity drop as midterm elections approached, but Donald Trump managed, under rather “normal” circumstances, to improve his approval ratings close to the 2018 elections – George W. Bush’s approval spiked due to the “rally ‘round the flag” effect following the 9/11 attacks. Trump was still the least popular President at the time of a midterm election an went on to lose 42 House seats, but it’s still noteworthy that he managed not to worsen his standing with the American people in that span of time.  

The honeymoon period

The same reasoning applies considering Congressional Generic Ballot polls, when respondents are simply asked if they would vote for a generic Democrat or a Republican for Congress. The president’s party tends to benefit from the honeymoon period – which usually helps presidents even after a reelection – only to see its numbers plunge closer to the midterm elections. This dynamic featured every midterm since 2010, with the notable exception of 2018: under the Trump first administration, polls for the GOP looked better – or less dire – 30 days from Election Day than 15 months before the midterms.  

It is worth noting that unlike after the first election, when Trump was unprepared following an “accidental” victory and therefore raised few expectations from the public, in 2024 the President made some precise campaign promises – most prominently to lower the cost of living- that could cost him popularity later on if his tariffs strategy backfires or even if the administration gets bogged down into a major scandal – for instance the one related to the Epstein files. On the other hand, the extreme polarization of the political environment coupled with an already lackluster-to-negative reception from the American public on administration’s priorities like the One Big Beautiful Bill, mass deportations and cuts to the federal government, should not make Democrats bank on a sudden backlash on Trump in the next months.  

While opposition parties under previous presidents knew administrations’ public standings 6 months into the term were still a trail of the honeymoon period and were not going to reflect the state of play 15 months later, Democrats may have to reckon with the fact that the 2026 environment may not be that different from today’s situation.  

Conclusion

Of course, a D+4 national environment is more than enough to flip a handful of House seats – also given that in 2024 the GOP won a historically-narrow 3-seat majority despite carrying the popular vote by 2% – but it would be well short of a 2018-like blue wave. Moreover, Democrats’ strategy heading into next year is still all but defined, with different factions sparring over the path ahead, and the party cannot bank on an election-winning issue as it could after the GOP attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017 or following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which limited its losses in 2022. And the Republicans have still got time to sell the tax provisions in the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, and flip the narrative on healthcare cuts focusing on issues like working requirements that are generally viewed more favorably by the public. 

Another point of concern Democrats should not underestimate is their lackluster showing in generic ballot polls, considering Trump’s unpopularity. Compared to this time during Trump first term, the President is only 1% more popular, while Democrats advantage in generic ballot polls dropped from D+9 to D+4. This shows that while voters are still unhappy with Trump’s handling of the presidency, they remain reluctant to switch their vote in favor of Democrats. 

Gaining voters’ confidence will be crucial for the Democratic Party, which cannot bank only on Trump’s unpopularity in order to win next year’s midterms. After all, a highly polarized environment combined with distrust in the opposition party resulted in Democrats outperforming expectations in 2022 despite Biden being the most unpopular President at the time of a midterm election.