Last week, the nation was briefly transfixed by what has become known as Signalgate. Several high-ranking intelligence officials were accused of discussing classified information on their cell phones and inadvertently adding a reporter to the discussion. Mike Waltz, the current National Security Adviser, has taken much of the blame and continues to apologize for his transgression. There will likely be numerous hearings in the House and Senate that will prolong the embarrassment felt by the current administration.
Donald Trump probably thinks he will survive this scandal unscathed. His Cabinet secretaries do not attract the kind of notoriety and attention that his actions do. In fact, many of the commentators who focused so closely on Signalgate last week have already been distracted by his reckless talk of a third term. Trump most likely thinks he can bring the media back around to issues he wants to talk about through his usual combination of bullying, obfuscation, and random assertions.
It is true that Signalgate will not sink his presidency or even the careers of many members of his Cabinet. But taken with other missteps, foreign policy failures such as this one have the potential to doom even the most successful presidents on the domestic front.
Foreign Policy Blunders Matter
Americans do not, on the whole, vote based on foreign policy preferences. In 2024, the thirteen most important issues to voters were domestic policy. Voters have the tendency to focus their limited attention on issues like unemployment, prices, and immigration. The Atlantic and Pacific Oceans often serve as a buffer between most Americans and world affairs.
But this overall complacency can be shaken by clear foreign policy failures. Americans do not praise their leaders for foreign policy success, but they can punish those same leaders for what are perceived as global failures. Jimmy Carter, for instance, saw a massive drop in popularity throughout the Iran Hostage Crisis, one that was not matched by any sort of bump after he achieved the Camp David Accords a year before. George W. Bush’s approval rating dropped throughout 2007 even though his handling of the Iraq War improved marginally following the troop surge of that year.
Foreign Policy Pitfalls
Trump is laying the groundwork for any foreign policy pitfalls that the nation faces to be blamed entirely on him. His Cabinet embarrassed themselves throughout the Signal debacle. In general, his policies are leading to a less careful, more error-prone government. He is losing any benefit of the doubt that a president might receive in a foreign policy crisis. As a result, a foreign policy blunder may derail any momentum his administration picks up, just as it doomed Biden’s term in office following his withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Foreign policy failures are a unique problem for presidents. They have the potential to build bipartisan coalitions and break through the signal of normal economic politics or culture wars. Foreign policy decisions can often be tied directly back to the president, unlike inflation or unemployment which is only partially the president’s responsibility. A significant enough failure could scare Republicans into thinking that the president’s failures might doom them in both 2026 and 2028. In such a case, Trump may realize that he should have treated foreign policy as a serious interchange and not a lighthearted conversation held on a social media app.
