After three consecutive cycles of high-profile losses, Arizona Republicans finally managed to rebound and captured resounding victories up and down the ballot, with one notable exception. While Arizona Democrats managed to convert their pretty substantial polling advantage into a narrow win in the US Senate race, the party fell short of expectations everywhere else, getting blown away in the Presidential contest and failing to pick up crucial victories in downballot races.
President
Before the election, most believed that Trump had the best chance of winning Arizona out of the seven core battleground states, due to his modest polling advantage of 2-3 points according to the FiveThirtyEight, Silver Bulletin, Decision Desk HQ, and New York Times aggregates. Still, when all of the votes came in, the magnitude of Trump’s victory was astounding. Despite the state appearing to trend Democratic in the past four cycles, with Democrats picking up a presidential victory, two Senate seats, and the governor’s mansion in the meantime, Trump blew apart his previous performances in the state to win by a hefty 5.51% margin, similar to the magnitude of Kamala Harris’ victory in less competitive states like Virginia or New Jersey. Trump received 1,770,242 votes (52.05%), to Harris’ 1,582,860 votes (46.54%). Green Party candidate Jill Stein recieved 18,319 votes (0.54%) and Libertarian Chase Oliver recieved 17,898 votes (0.53%).
Trump’s nationwide victory was attributed to his ability to convince a record amount of minority voters into voting Republican at the top of the ticket. While we don’t yet have enough information to say exactly how many minorities deserted Harris and the Democratic Party, we can see substantial hints in Arizona. In the two most Hispanic counties in the state, Yuma and Santa Cruz, Trump improved on his 2020 performance by 14 and 17 percent, respectively. And to the surprise of many observers, 42% nonwhite Maricopa County, which effectively decides how the state of Arizona will vote due to its massive population, swung 5.6% toward Trump after swinging heavily against him in the past two cycles.
Senate
The one bright spot for Arizona Democrats was the race for US Senate, where Congressman Ruben Gallego (D) managed to defeat former 2022 Gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) despite top of the ticket headwinds. Gallego was expected to win before the election, being ahead by about four points in the FiveThirtyEight and Decision Desk HQ polling aggregates. He ended up winning by a slightly less impressive 2.4% margin, which exactly mirrors Arizona Democrats’ Senate victories in 2018 and 2020. Gallego received 1,676,335 votes (49.97%) to Lake’s 1,595,761 votes (47.57%), while Green Party’s Eduardo Quintana received 75,868 votes (2.26%).
Gallego’s performance marked just short of an 8% overperformance over Kamala Harris, with overperformances especially stark in heavily Hispanic counties, such as Yuma (10%) and Santa Cruz (11%), suggesting that he likely overperformed by a larger margin among Hispanic voters than his statewide overperformance would suggest. His 5.2% win in heavily populated Maricopa County doomed Lake’s chances statewide, as she was unable to covert the long-gone goodwill from her days as a Phoenix-based KSAZ-TV news anchor into an overperformance in the Phoenix metropolitan area.
House
After escaping by narrow margins in 2022, AZ-01 GOP Rep. David Schweikert and AZ-06 GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani were thought to be in the fight of their political lives. Democrats poured in heavy resources to try to unseat both, although they fell short in their quest in both.
Schweikert seemed to be the more obvious target as the weaker incumbent in what was a more Biden-leaning district; Biden carried the seat by 1.5%. But Democrats competed in a chaotic primary where they arguably eliminated some more electable contenders like former TV news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods in favor of former State Rep. Amish Shah. Combined with the fact that Arizona Republicans enjoyed a more favorable environment than 2022, and Schweikert was able to retain his seat by a wider margin than his 0.9% win in 2022: He received 225,538 votes (51.81%) and Shah received 208,966 votes (48.01%).
The story in AZ-06 was very similar, although the Democratic Party was more united here. After giving Ciscomani a scare in what was thought to be a comfortably Republican seat, Democrats renominated former legislator Kirsten Engel. But Ciscomani was able to take advantage of the environment to cling onto his seat by a greater margin than his initial 1.5% victory: He received 215,596 votes (49.94%) while Engel received 204,774 votes (47.43%). Green Party’s Athena Eastwood received 10,759 votes (2.49%).
The third closest race in the state was surprisingly AZ-04, where popular Rep. Greg Stanton was expected to cruise to reelection. Instead, he was held to single-digits against a candidate he beat by 12 points last time despite no notable GOP investment: Stanton received 176,428 votes (52.70%) and Republican candidate Kelly Cooper received 152,052 votes (45.42%).
The most intriguing race though was probably AZ-02, where Democrats nominated former Navajo Nation president Jonathan Nez (D) in the hopes of boosting native american turnout and ousting controversial Rep. Eli Crane (R). But Trump won this seat by double-digits, so Nez unsurprisingly lost: Crane received 221,413 votes (54.44%) to Nez’s 184,963 votes (45.48%). But Nez did manage some extreme ticket splitting in heavily native areas. As a simple example, in majority-native Apache County, Nez won by 38 points while Harris beat Trump by just 19 points, representing a near-20 point ticket split.
State Senate
Arizona Democrats had high hopes of winning a trifecta in state government after sweeping four out of five contested statewide offices in 2022 and coming surprisingly close on the legislative front. Holding 14 out of 30 seats coming into this election, their strategy heavily focused on the three districts that Governor Katie Hobbs (D) won in her statewide victory but Republicans hold at the senate level: SDs 2, 13, and 17.
In SD-02, Democrats recruited state rep. Judy Schwiebert (D) to run against appointed Sen. Shawnna Bolick (R). Schwiebert is a proven overperformer and outpolled Bolick when they were on the same ballot for state representative in 2020, which along with Schwiewbert’s fundraising advantage made Democrats bullish they could flip this seemingly left-trending seat. But Bolick had advantages of her own after clearing a primary challenge from far-right perennial candidate Josh Barnett, including a four-year tenure as state representative and a green party candidate on the ballot who had the potential to siphon votes away from Schwiebert.
In the end, Schwiebert was unable to run against Arizona Democrats’ fundamentally poor headwinds, and Bolick won a rather decisive 3.67% victory and took 52,100 votes (50.78%) to Schwiebert’s 48,333 votes (47.10%), with Green Party candidate Dennis Pugsley proving not to be a factor at 2,076 votes (2.02%).
As the only R-held Biden/Hobbs Senate seat in the state, SD-13 looked to be the most appealing Democratic target from afar, but Democratic candidate Sharon Lee Winters’ slow start and Republican incumbent Daniel Mesnard’s proven ability to outrun the top of the ticket meant that Mesnard was a slight favorite to hold onto his seat by the end of the campaign. There was no shock in this red-leaning year: Mesnard took 62,670 votes (53.08%) to Winters’ 55,287 votes (46.82%) to win by a rather comfortable margin of 6.25%.
The most vexing matchup occured in SD-17, where Republicans were eating each other alive early in the campaign. The incumbent in this seat is Justine Wadsack (R), a highly controversial Senator who was already infamous for her far-right views but made things worse by driving 71mph in a 35mph zone. The Senator she ousted in the Republican primary last cycle, former Arizona Senate PPT Vince Leach, was back for a rematch. Despite all the controversies surrounding Wadsack, she only narrowly lost renomination and took 47% of the vote to Leach’s 53%.
All of this infighting gave Democratic candidate John McLean a head start and he was able to outraise Leach by 2-1 through most of the campaign. If Wadsack was still the Republican candidate or if the year wasn’t as favorable for Arizona Republicans, McLean may well have won. But the headwinds in this Trump-won seat were simply too much against the less-controversial Leach: Leach was carried over by top-of-the-ticket coattails and took 77,714 votes (50.89%) and McLean got 74,669 votes (48.90%). Leach’s 1.99% margin of victory was the smallest for any contest in the Arizona State Senate. In a sad sequel to the story, McLean tragically died of a car crash a day after he conceded the race.
Arizona Democrats’ inability to convert any of their pickup opportunities into wins ended their trifecta dreams, but the bad news didn’t stop there. Trump didn’t win any Democratic-held districts in the Senate in 2020, so Arizona Republicans didn’t have many pickup opportunities. However, they did heavily target SD-04, which both Trump in 2020 and Republican senator Nancy Barto in 2022 lost by less than 1%. A member of the Scottsdale school board, Carine Werner (R) proved to be a competent candidate and fundraiser against two-term incumbent Christine Marsh (D), and the red year was enough for Werner to stun Marsh with a relatively comfortable victory: Werner received 76,079 votes (51.81%) and Marsh received 70,614 (48.09%). Werner’s 3.72% margin of victory was actually greater than GOP margins in both SD-02 and SD-17, districts they held before the election.
The red year also meant that Democrats who were thought to be in safer reelection bids also faced close races on election night. Senator Eva Burch (D, SD-09) won her first term by defeating Republican Robert Scantlebury by 4.94% in 2022, but the redder environment in 2024 meant her margin was slightly diminished in the rematch despite her newfound incumbency status: she received 42,072 votes (51.65%) to Scantlebury’s 39,261 (48.20%) for a more modest 3.45% margin of victory this time around.
Thanks to Trump’s substantial gains with Hispanic voters, there was also a closer-than-expected fight for a 59% VAP Hispanic district on the border. Even though Biden won SD-23 by 14 points in 2020 and Republican nominee Michelle Altherr was barely funded, the race was too close to call for a week after election night and Altherr kept it close until the final few days of counting. Democratic Senator Brian Fernandez was reelected with 42,658 votes (53.74%) to Altherr’s 36,602 votes (46.11%) votes for a 7.63% margin of victory, slightly improving on his initial 7.32% victory in 2022.
In the end, not only were Arizona Democrats unable to gain control of the upper chamber, they lost a seat to end the cycle with a 13-17 deficit.
State House
The district map that elects the state house is the same as the map that elects the state senate, so the battlegrounds for both chambers are very similar. There is one slight twist: Because the house elects two members per each legislative district, the minority party may decide to only run one candidate in order to maximize their chances of getting at least one seat. This has allowed Democrats to be competitive in red-leaning districts like LD-16 while Republicans have seen success in blue-leaning districts like LD-23.
Beginning with LD-02, it was Republicans who were on the offensive here due to Schwiebert’s Senate bid. Democrats opted to continue to only run only one candidate, Dear Valley School Board member Stephanie Simacek, despite the district becoming more favorable in recent cycles. This decision effectively ceded a Democratic offensive opportunity, but while it may have felt vexing at the moment, it likely proved decisive in the end. The other incumbent in the seat, Republican Justin Wilmeth, ran for reelection, and was accompanied on the ticket by former North Valley Young Republicans president Ari Bradshaw. Independent Tom Simes was also running but was not considered a serious contender.
This was an extremely close race and the lead changed often on and after election night such that all three main contenders looked like they were on the verge of victory at one point. After the dust cleared, it was Simacek who got first with 47,801 votes (30.31%), with Wilmeth holding onto his seat taking 46,942 votes (29.76%), just 132 ballots clear of fellow Republican candidate Bradshaw, who got 46,810 votes (29.68%). As expected, Simes was a distant fourth and garnered 15,946 votes (10.11%). This was a key hold for Democrats, and if they had instead run two candidates, it appears likely that they would have lost both seats in this district.
LD-04 presented an offensive opportunity for both parties. Like LD-02, it was a split district, with both a Democratic and a Republican incumbent. Elected in 2022, former Rep. Laura Terech (D) resigned following the end of the 2024 legislative session, and appointed Rep. Eric Meyer (D) did not run for reelection. This presented the GOP with an opportunity to pick off an open seat in a competitive district. On the other hand, Democrats were looking to topple Rep. Matt Gress (R), as Gress was one of just three incumbent Republicans who held a seat Biden won in 2020. Both parties recruited a full slate of candidates and it felt like both parties had a fairly good chance of winning one or both seats in this district.
There was one clear leader when the results came in: Gress, who was reelected with relative ease and took 75,669 votes (27.48%), more than six thousand ballots ahead of the second-place finisher, fellow Republican Pamela Carter, who took 69,077 votes (25.09%). Democrats were unable to defend their seat in LD-04, with former Rep. Kelli Butler (D) finishing with 66,407 votes (24.12%) and fellow Democrat Karen Gresham finishing well behind at 64,038 votes (23.26%). The loss in this district was a body blow to state Democrats, and it basically signaled the end of their hopes for retaking the lower chamber.
Given the red year, blue-leaning LD-09 was no longer a safe bet for Democrats, and Republicans made sure that both Democratic senators had to sweat for reelection. In fact, it wasn’t clear until the final few ballots were tabulated whether Sen. Seth Blattman (D) had fended off his two Republican challengers. His colleague, Sen. Lorena Austin (D), was let off the hook early and received 39,041 votes (26.48%) to finish ahead of the pack. Blattman pulled through in the final days of the count after initially falling behind and took 36,823 votes (24.98%) to retain his seat, ahead of Republican challengers Kylie Barber and Mary Ann Mendoza, who took 35,895 (24.35%) and 35,553 (24.11%) votes, respectively.
LD-13 was a classic battleground that had both a Democratic and Republican incumbent, and both parties decided to field a full slate of candidates, which was decidedly different from the single-candidate strategy that allowed Democrats to elect Rep. Jennifer Pawlik (D) in the three previous cycles. Neither elected incumbent was running, allowing a largely new slate of candidates to land on the ballot. Rep. Julie Willoughby (R), who was appointed following the expulsion of controversial former Rep. Liz Harris (R), was running for a full term, along with former Rep. Jeff Weninger (R). The Democratic slate was less experienced but Democrats were hopeful that candidates Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales would be able to deliver Democrats two seats in this district. The Green Party was also in this race, and nominee Cody Hannah could have spoiled the chances of one of the Democratic hopefuls if the race was extremely close.
As it turned out, the race was not necessarily a nail-biter: Weninger, a familiar name to voters having been elected to the lower chamber four times, was the top vote getter with 57,486 votes (25.93%). Willoughby was not far behind at 56,914 votes (25.67%). Democrats ended up a collective 4.77% behind, with Reese taking 52,677 votes (23.76%) and Gonzales taking 51,133 votes (23.07%). Green Party’s Cody Hannah was not a factor at 3,361 votes (1.52%).
LD-16 is a Republican-leaning seat that has become in play in recent cycles thanks to Democrats’ single-candidate strategy. Arizona Democrats were almost able to pull off a stunning upset and tie the lower chamber in 2022 because Keith Seeman (D) placed narrowly ahead of Republican Rob Hudelson in the race for the second seat in this red district. Republicans believed they can defeat Seeman with popular Sen. TJ Shope (R) leading the legislative ticket, and they had a new nominee this time around in first-time candidate Chris Lopez (R).
As expected, Republican Sen. Teresa Martinez easily placed first with 53,783 votes (36.15%). In the race for second, Lopez unseated Seeman by a margin of 49,099 (33.00%) to 45,444 (30.54%). This was not a strong performance by the Democratic Senator, receiving less votes than his daughter Stacey Seeman (45,888) who was concurrently running against Shope in the Senate race and lost by 12%. Seeman’s loss brought GOP gains in this chamber to 3 seats and left Democrats with no path to stop Republicans from gaining seats in both chambers of the legislature.
State Democrats likely cost themselves power in the lower chamber in 2022 by running two candidates in LD-17, with 3rd place candidate Dana Allmond falling short by less than 2,000 votes. They shifted their strategy this time, running a single candidate in Kevin Volk, a former educator. This strategy paid off in spades: in the only bright spot for legislative Democrats, Volk placed first to flip a seat with 73,985 votes (34.38%). This left the two Republican incumbents to battle it out for the second spot, and it was Rep. Rachel Jones who finished ahead of Rep. Cory McGarr by a margin of 71,620 (33.28%) to 68,904 (32.02%).
The last battleground in the lower chamber is LD-23. Legislative Republicans were able prevent a chamber-wide upset in 2022 by pulling an upset of their own in this blue district, with now-Rep. Michele Pena (R) finishing 2nd in a three-way contest. Democrats poured in big resources in favor of San Luis council member Matias Rosales (D) in their bid to unseat Pena, who was expected to be vulnerable due to the partisan lean of the seat (Biden +14) and the nature of a presidential year.
But in a year where Trump was making huge gains with Hispanic voters nationwide, the pieces that needed to be in place in order to unseat Pena in this heavily Hispanic district were nowhere to be found. Pena actually ended finishing first with 37,967 votes (34.03%), ahead of fellow Rep. Mariana Sandoval (D) who received 37,375 votes (33.50%). The three candidates all finished relatively close to each other, as Rosales also took a solid 35,788 votes (32.08%) to finish in 3rd. This result meant that Democrats were only able to pick up 1 seat in the lower chamber and suffered a total net loss of 2 seats, bringing the GOP majority up from 31-29 to 33-27.
