In 2008, Democrats became elated at the unthinkable prospect of having a 60-40 Senate majority, with a diverse collection of Senators from states even ruby-red in 2008, like South Dakota and Alaska. The coalition winded through blue-dogs, populists, technocrats, and many conventional dye-blue liberals who were ecstatic for change. Infrastructure overhaul, the introduction of the Affordable Care Act, and reversing the perilous economic situation, we’re now in Democrats’ hands with the House, Presidency, and filibuster-proof Senate.
Then, Democrats would see their fortunes dim thanks to a state reliably in the blue column. In 2010, during the height of several consequential political battles (including within the Democrat’s ranks), the Massachusetts special Senatorial election to succeed the late Ted Kennedy appeared to be a lock-step for the Democrats. While the state had flirted with the GOP on the Gubernatorial level, they rarely bucked for the GOP in federal contests. That changed when State Senator Scott Brown upset the state’s Attorney General and broke the 60 votes Democrats had. This significantly stymied President Obama’s agenda, and the ensuing gridlock further helped Republicans’ midterm messaging by capitalizing on the “governmental inefficiencies” of the Democrats in charge. Republicans would flip several Senate seats and earn a decisive House majority in the 2010 midterms, with the special election being seen as a harbinger of things to come.
The District
New York’s 21st Congressional District is unlike the median district. Winding through the New York State Thruway, which forks around its “regional hubs,” you’ll encounter an environment surrounded by picturesque mountainscapes and tiny villages still sprinkled with touches of their French and British pasts. The district is large, starting around the touristy Lake George region before taking in the Adirondack Mountains, a few college towns such as Plattsburgh, and the Quebec border.
The district shares many visual characteristics with the nearby Berkshire mountains and Vermont but has a vastly different political landscape. Unlike its progressive neighbors, it is solidly Republican. In 2022, Republican Lee Zeldin bested Governor Kathy Hochul 66-34% in the district, with Trump commanding a similar performance (60-39%) in 2024.
The incumbent Congresswoman, Elise Stefanik, enjoys widespread district support, even winning over the few liberal-leaning areas of the seat. She has climbed the ranks of House GOP leadership and is now departing her seat to serve as U.N. Ambassador. Stefanik is leaving a reliably GOP seat, but some Republican operatives have privately become uneasy with her departure due to the district’s history.
How a Democrat Could Compete
A Democrat represented a similar seat configuration until 2014 when Stefanik comfortably flipped the seat. Democrats do well in Plattsburgh and some adjacent areas to Vermont but struggle in the inland and western portions of the seat. To look at how a Democrat could fare competitively, it is worth looking at the 2020 election when Trump was held to a mere 54-44% win in the similar-drawn prior district. Biden did exceptionally well in the northeast, making marginal contests in 2016 like Maine appear as a fluke (until 2024, which had similar results to 2016 in the region). Biden commanded support in the eastern side particularly well, losing Warren County (Lake George) by a hair and decisively winning the semi-populous town of Glen Falls. Biden also flipped smaller towns, usually for the red team, like Canton and Piercefield on the western end.
In 2025, the special election is in full swing, but many are unaware the contest is even happening. The district may have a similar outcome to the special election in Kansas’s fourth congressional district in 2017. Republicans had a paltry performance and narrowly held the reliably Republican seat stretching across Kansas farmland and the red metro of Wichita. Special elections often lead to odd outcomes due to low turnout, and turnout differentials become decisive.
Democrats recently flipped an Iowa State Senate seat that voted for Trump by over twenty points in 2025. That is not to say Iowa is suddenly competitive again, but it was clear Democrats got their base out with the Iowa GOP omitting mentions of the special from their social media page. It is safe to say the GOP is the favorite to retain Stefanik’s House seat, but the seat could be much more competitive than the fundamentals would suggest. If Democrats get their base out more than Republicans and there is some early incumbency backlash to Trump, then a single-digit race is far from out of the question (especially with a seat with a distinct geography).
The Candidates
As for the candidates, the party-brokers will have unfettered control as state law allows local party leaders to select their candidates instead of a conventional primary on each side. Republicans are coalescing around Republican Assemblyman Chris Tague. Tague’s candidacy is also not solidified, with other local Republicans, such as St. Lawrence County Legislative Chairman David Forsythe, expressing interest in running. On the Democratic side, they’ve chosen Blake Gendebien, a dairy farmer.
The other wrench for the contest is the fact Gov. Hochul has not set a date for the special election, which has caused a wave of fury directed at her by local and national Republicans, with even Speaker of the House Mike Johnson expressing dismay. With Stefanik creating an even thinner GOP house, majority Republicans want the GOP-friendly seat to have their special election as soon as possible to shore up an extra vote. However, Hochul has not violated state law, and while she needs to select a date soon, she has time. It is also not unprecedented for a Governor to stall a special election on turf favorable to the other side, with Republican Florida Governor Ron Desantis currently facing an ACLU-brought lawsuit accusing him of stalling two special state legislative elections (after being sued in 2021 for delaying a special election for a deep-blue House seat).
Conclusion
While Republicans are decisive favorites to retain the seat, Democrats will attempt to levy a challenge, and turnout differentials have shown that special election outcomes are far from guaranteed to be the norm. If Republicans campaign and nationalize the race, it will likely stay red, but if the GOP drops the ball due to anything from a scandal to a substantial lack of investment, the race could get dicey.
In 2017, all eyes were on the northern Atlanta-based 6th congressional district between Republican Karen Handel and future Senator Jon Ossoff. While Ossoff lost substantially in a ruby-red congressional seat next door in South Carolina, Democrats got within striking distance of a monumental upset in large part from little attention being paid to the race due to the cash-burning, attention-craving Georgia special election.
This special election will likely be the first federal high-stakes contest in the second Trump Presidency. If the GOP loses, it will send alarm bells to the GOP and give Democrats a confident boost heading into the 2025 elections and the subsequent midterm elections. In 2017, the Kansas special election was much closer than in 2018, but the result would be a prelude to a blue-leaning year that, on the state level, saw Democrats flip the Kansas Governorship (even if that was also in part due to Kris Kobach and the outgoing Governors personal unpopularity).
