Analyzing the 2024 Election Results in New England

Every election cycle holds surprises, be it Joe Biden’s win in Georgia, Donald Trump’s Rio Grande Valley Gains, or Hillary Clinton’s loss of the Obama Rust Belt, eye-catching results can tell us a lot – or very little – about what to expect in the next few elections.

2024 showed interesting results across the board, but a region particularly worth taking a closer look at is New England, a longtime Democratic stronghold.

New England is home to six states – Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont- with varying political histories and voter trends. Although Vice President Kamala Harris won every New England state, the results show some noteworthy shifts from 2020 and 2016, sending mixed messages to political observers.

New England Politics in a Nutshell

New England’s political culture has its roots in its history as a refuge for liberty in the earliest days of European colonialism in North America. The early colonies, home to English Protestants fleeing persecution (the Pilgrims and Puritans) came to be known for their independent, community-centered governance – indeed, most New Englanders refer to towns instead of counties. The colonies, as seen in their general opposition to slavery and religious discrimination, developed a socially liberal streak that continues to this day. These are intertwined with New England’s emphasis on liberty, being home to prominent revolts against American enemies.

Throughout much of their history, New England states were Republican strongholds, largely reflecting the Rockefeller tradition. A gradual realignment throughout the 20^th Century turned them blue, amidst the Democratic Party’s rebranding in New Dealism and the Republican Party’s right-wing turn. In the post-2000 geographic realignment, New England stands out as a consistent stronghold for the Democratic Party, although Republicans have won a number of statewide races.

The past trends in each state will be considered in the following sections analyzing the 2024 results.

Connecticut

Harris carried the Constitution State by 14.5 points, with roughly 56.4% of the vote. This represents a roughly 5.5-point decline from 2020, but an improvement from 2016. Reflecting this decline, President Donald Trump flipped 14 municipalities from 2020.

Harris’ slightly worse performance than President Joe Biden in the state’s largest cities, namely Stamford, Hartford, New Haven, and Bridgeport, was likely a greater contributing factor to this overall drop-off.

Harris carried every county except for Litchfield and Windham, the latter of which has trended Republican in recent years. Litchfield was once competitive, voting for George W. Bush in 2004 and Mitt Romney in 2012, and for Al Gore in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008. Trump’s 2016 and 2024 showings there were the strongest for a Republican since 1988. Unsurprisingly, both these counties are more rural and sparsely populated than the rest of Connecticut, foreshadowing similar trends in other states.

In reflection of broader trends, Fairfield County, the state’s largest and home to Stamford and New York City suburbs, has moved strongly to the left since 2000.

In the concurrent Senate race, Senator Chris Murphy, widely seen as a rising star in the party, won a third term by a margin largely unchanged from 2018, a strong feat. He also lost Windham County, but for the first time.

Connecticut has been one of the nation’s most Democratic states for decades, with the party holding both legislative chambers since 1997, and a trifecta since 2011. Its high proportion of college-educated voters, urban residents, and liberal Republicans favor Democrats. It has historically voted somewhere between the more liberal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and more conservative upper New England states, more recently cementing its place as a safe blue state.

Maine

Maine was won by Harris by 6.9 points, a four-point improvement over Hillary Clinton but roughly a two-point decline from Biden’s numbers. Given the mammoth rightward shifts in other blue states, this is noteworthy. Maine, rather amazingly, voted to the left of New Jersey.

A long trend in this blue-leaning state is a proclivity towards political populists. Maine posted strong showings for Ross Perot and Bill Clinton, along with Barack Obama, while Hillary Clinton underperformed. Independent US Senator Angus King was handily reelected this year.

Maine also has a history of fluctuation, with significant geographic elements. It was once very solidly Republican, voting against President Franklin D. Roosevelt in all four of his elections. After a long period of being competitive, Maine became increasingly Democratic beginning in 1992, with county maps showing across-the-board Democratic wins. However, Democrats experienced a sudden drop-off in statewide support by 2016, concentrated in the northern, rural counties. These make up Maine’s Second Congressional District, giving Trump an additional Electoral College vote.

Trump, expectedly, ran up the margins this year and carried the district by an impressive 9.4 points, cementing its transition towards the Republican Party. Harris handily carried the First, which encompasses Maine’s largest cities and coastal towns. A glance at Maine’s election maps reveals these counties getting more Democratic over time. Lincoln, a coastal county not far from Portland, was once one of the state’s most Republican, but is now one of its most Democratic. However, given this rural shift, it appears that Harris holding her own in the First District kept Maine from a stronger move to the right.

On the same ballot, Democratic US Rep. Jared Golden won a fourth term by less than one percentage point. Golden, who first flipped the seat in 2018, has established himself as a more independent-minded member of his party, embracing his blue-collar roots and commitment to serving Maine over any national party priorities. He distanced himself from the Biden Administration, opposing controversial measures like student loan forgiveness, and embracing Trump voters. It is fair to assume that Democrats would have lost this seat with a more mainstream candidate.

Maine’s results this year point to a microcosm of what electoral maps increasingly look like, with Democrats gaining in urban centers and coastal enclaves, and Republicans gaining in rural and inland areas. Despite the Second District’s reddening, and the re-election victories of US Senator Susan Collins, Maine as a whole still appears out of reach for the Republican Party.

Massachusetts

A longtime boogeyman for the right, Massachusetts (or “Taxachusetts,” depending on your political leanings), remains one of the Democrats’ strongest states. Biden’s win there, notably, was the strongest for a Democrat in decades, outperforming nominees from the state, like John Kerry and Michael Dukakis. However, Massachusetts moved significantly rightward in 2024.

Harris won the Bay State by 25 points, roughly eight less than Biden. Like every Democrat since 1992, Harris won every county and Congressional District. And much like in Connecticut, she experienced slight declines in counties home to the state’s largest cities.

However, the most striking shifts were concentrated in Bristol County, in the state’s south. Trump came within 2 points of flipping it red, carrying with him towns like Westport and Fall River. The latter, a working-class town, had not previously voted Republican for President since 1924. Trump breaking this 100-year hold is no doubt terrifying for Democrats.

Fall River, a largely Catholic bastion of New Dealism that has voted for the likes of Barney Frank and Ted Kennedy, is home to the skeleton of a once-thriving textile industry that never recovered. It drew a wave of immigrants, mainly from Portugal and its outlying islands. Towns like this were demographic gold for the Democratic Party of the 20^th century, but Fall River’s economically frustrated and socially conservative voters proved receptive to Trump’s movement, gradually increasing their vote share for him over three cycles.

But that’s not all: US Senator Elizabeth Warren, a staunch progressive, lost Bristol to her Republican challenger for the first time. The county’s 5th District in the state House of Representatives, and 3rd District in the State Senate, have flipped red. Democrats’ vote share in Presidential races has been stagnant or declining in Bristol, while that of Republicans has grown.

At the same time, Suffolk County, home of Boston, has been gradually moving leftward for decades, balancing out the reddening to its south. The state as a whole has retained its progressive bona fides, sending figures like Rep. Ayanna Pressley and Senator Ed Markey to Washington. 2022, despite posting mixed results for Democrats nationally, was a blue wave election in Massachusetts. Democrats solidly flipped the Governors’ mansion and knocked out several long-serving Republican officeholders.

If the GOP is to make a comeback in Massachusetts, Bristol County will likely be its launchpad, and predominant base of support. And for Democrats fearful that their party has become too progressive, Massachusetts in 2024 may be a damning piece of evidence.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire may be the most politically unique state not just in New England, but in the entire country. What was once one of the reddest states in the union has transitioned into a purple state and now a largely blue one. Democrats have won it in every Presidential election since 1992, with the exception of 2000. They have also won every US Senate and House seat in New Hampshire since 2014, impressive when considering the state’s recent past.

Interestingly, despite these strong Democratic showings, Republicans maintain a strong advantage in the state legislature and governorship. The GOP has held a trifecta since 2021, and has controlled the legislature for most of the past thirty years. New Hampshire is known for being both fiscally conservative and socially liberal, which explains these trends.

Like Hillary Clinton, Harris narrowly held onto New Hampshire in what was her closest statewide victory. She did 2.35% worse than Biden, who won by an impressive 7.4 points in 2020, and lost three Biden counties – Carroll, Rockingham, and Sullivan, to Trump. Given the sheer proportion of the state’s counties to flip red, there was eroded support in Democratic strongholds. Indeed, she did worse than Biden in every county.

On the same ballot, former US Senator Kelly Ayotte was handily elected governor by nine points. Her victory dashed Democrats’ hope that New Hampshire’s social liberalism would break the GOP trifecta in the aftermath of Dobbs. However, Ayotte has claimed that she will not undo abortion rights, and has broken with Trump in the past.

These results may seem contradictory. Interviews with New Hampshire voters reaffirm the state’s moderate, libertarian tendencies: although many were concerned about inflation, concerns over health care and abortion rights won the day at the top of the ballot. In the governor’s race, however, voters likely prioritized keeping their state fiscally conservative in an election environment dominated by the view that Democrats are too fiscally liberal. Backing up this view is Ayotte’s slogan: “don’t Mass it up!”

Some have suggested that New Hampshire could revert to being a swing state again, as it was in 2016. Whether this happens will depend on Democrats’ ability to maintain their support in Presidential races, and whether the GOP can move in a more moderate direction come 2028.

Rhode Island

Rhode Island is yet another example of Democratic dominance facing some headwinds in the 21^st century. It is a firmly one-party state, and perhaps the most partisan of the New England states. It has not elected a Republican to Congress since 2000 or to statewide office since 2006. Democrats have held overwhelming supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature for many decades. Harris ran away with a 12-point win, and US Senator Sheldon Whitehouse won a fourth term by 20 points.

However, both these victories are underwhelming compared to past election cycles. Between 1996 and 2012, Rhode Island voted for the Democratic nominee with at least 59% of the vote. Beginning in 2016, a drop-off became more noticeable, as Hillary Clinton won by just over 15 points, and Trump made inroads across the state. Notably, US Senator Jack Reed, among the nation’s most popular, experienced his weakest reelection in 2020, falling short of 70% of the vote for the first time since his initial election.

Despite remaining strongly blue, Rhode Island has been shifting to the right for some time. It is the only New England state to vote more Republican in 2020 than in 2000, and had the smallest shift left from 2004 to 2020. In the state’s Second Congressional District, which encompasses parts of Providence and all of Kent and Washington Counties, Hillary Clinton performed 25 points worse than Al Gore. 2024 was the first time since 1956 that Rhode Island voted more Republican than Connecticut.

Much like Maine, Rhode Island’s election maps represent a gradual geographic realignment. Longtime Democratic towns in the inland, like Burrillville, have turned red, while wealthy coastal and suburban towns like East Greenwich have turned solidly blue. Kent County, which includes working class areas like Warwick, has had the greatest rightward shift, and was narrowly won by Trump in 2016 (but curiously retained by Harris in 2024). Trump won Lincoln, a somewhat upscale suburb, in 2016, only to lose it this year. Likewise, he just won Woonsocket, a working-class town, for the first time. In the US Senate races, both Reed and Whitehouse have been losing ground in the state’s inland towns.

Providence County, too, has shifted right. Trump posted his strongest gains in the state in majority-Latino Central Falls, reflecting nationwide shifts in Hispanic communities. In Providence itself, the Democratic margin has been steadily declining, and the Republican margin growing, since 2016. Harris received 3,054 fewer votes than Biden, and Biden only received 251 more votes than Hillary Clinton. Trump, meanwhile, received 2,451 more votes in 2020 than in 2016, and 2,900 more votes in 2024 than in 2020.

Also noteworthy is the GOP’s gains among Catholic voters, who were once the backbone of the Democratic Party in Rhode Island but have been moving rightward nationally.

By contrast, Washington (referred to by Rhode Islanders as South County), Bristol, and Newport Counties, which are wealthier and coastal, have moved leftward quite significantly.

Despite these trends, Rhode Island remains firmly out of reach for the GOP, at least for the foreseeable future. Most of the state is demographically unfavorable to Republicans, despite the industrial decline in places like Kent County. Harris, despite winning the state by less than Hillary Clinton, won a greater vote share. This is likely due to strong third-party tickets in 2016. Clinton, notably, performed very poorly across the northeast relative to other Democrats. Analysts are also blaming Trump’s gains on low Democratic turnout. Most notably, the Democrats have retained their overwhelming supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly, gaining seats in both and posting a one-seat net loss in the state House of Representatives.

More importantly, the modern, conservative Republican brand is not especially palatable to most Rhode Island voters, who tend to be fiscally and socially liberal. An example of this was the election of Congressman Seth Magaziner (RI-02). His opponent in 2022, Cranston Mayor Allen Fung, was widely considered a slight favorite to win, given his local popularity and relative moderation in a Biden midterm. However, Magaziner would win the race by over three points, and enjoyed an overwhelming 17-point win in 2024. His initial victory was widely credited to voters’ disapproval of the Dobbs decision, and the campaign’s strong organizing infrastructure. Magaziner, who has drawn praise from Republicans for working across the aisle, is likely to hold this seat indefinitely.

But the above shifts demonstrate potential for Republicans. Many Rhode Island voters are ideologically conservative, but vote for the Democratic Party out of longtime allegiance and distaste for the right-wing GOP brand. With a more moderate approach, the party can make further inroads in the Ocean State.

Vermont

Vermont is yet another fascinating case study. A rural, historically liberal state, it has been the Democrats’ strongest in the two most recent cycles, giving both Biden and Harris over 63% of the vote. However, it experienced a red wave in 2024. Harris won Vermont by just over thirty points, winning every county except Essex and Orleans. The latter was a flip for Trump, and a first for the Republicans since 2000.

Vermont, like Maine, was solidly Republican throughout the 20^th Century, only flipping in 1992 and becoming increasingly Democratic since. Its political culture has largely reflected the “Yankee” Republican tradition and has been consistently left-of-center, oftentimes drastically more so than the country at-large. An influx of liberal-leaning voters in the century’s latter half, combined with ideological rigidity in the parties, turned the state blue. Democrats currently hold supermajorities in the General Assembly.

But unique to Vermont is a strong progressive movement, seen in the presence of the Vermont Progressive Party in the General Assembly and a number of statewide offices. US Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-described Democratic Socialist, consistently wins reelection by crushing margins and dominated Vermont in the 2016 and 2020 Democratic primaries. Cities like Burlington, Sanders’ hometown, are a hotbed of the country’s progressive movement.

In 2024, Republicans posted their strongest gains in Vermont relative to any other New England State. While Trump had a narrow improvement from 2020, the party gained a whopping 19 seats in the state Senate and 6 in the state House of Representatives, breaking the Democrats’ supermajorities. Most notably, Republican John Rodgers unseated incumbent David Zuckerman, a Progressive Party member, in the Lieutenant Governor race. Sanders also posted his weakest reelection to date, and lost Essex to his Republican challenger for the very first time.

This wave is attributed to a number of factors. For one, the state’s extremely popular Governor, Republican Phil Scott, was noticeably more active in uplifting down-ballot candidates than in years past. He would win reelection by his largest margin yet, producing coattail effects. Legislative Democrats also took some unpopular steps in recent months, including the ingraining of a property tax hike and a measure to mandate clean heat standards. Scott ran predominately on issues of affordability, tapping into the financial struggles of Vermonters.

Rodgers reflected these phenomena in his campaign. He is a close ally of Scott’s, and a former Democrat who recently switched parties. An ideological moderate, he had been critical of the Vermont Democratic Party for its leftward turn, reflecting nationwide sentiment about the Democrats. While both he and Zuckerman, who are farmers, portrayed themselves as heroes of the working class, Rodgers’ triumph appears to reaffirm that the Republicans are winning the fight over who represents working class voters.

Rather curiously, Progressive Party members appeared largely unscathed in the Assembly races, with all of the Republican gains instead ousting Democrats. This may feed arguments on the left that progressives are more electorally adept to the current populist climate in American politics. Likewise, these retentions could simply be due to geographic partisanship.

Still, these results could potentially signal a return to statewide competitiveness for Republicans, fitting in a state as rural as Vermont. Looking at Vermont, a rural, agricultural, and mostly white state with a populist streak, one might expect more fertile soil for Trump’s movement. But what these results indicate is less a growing comfort with the MAGA movement, and more an embrace of the Republican Party’s traditional, moderate roots in Vermont politics.

Conclusion

The varied election results across the New England states are a reflection of both historic voting and ideological patterns, and a drastically shifted national environment from 2020. Both Democrats and Republicans need to pay attention to these states and take note of potential recipes for greater success across the nation.