We’re back again with a ratings update, this time for the gubernatorial elections. This has been one of the least eventful gubernatorial cycles in recent memory – and with today’s ratings change, we now only expect one race to be competitive this cycle.
North Carolina shifts blue
We had been considering a change to North Carolina for some time. While early polls up through March had shown Republican Mark Robinson with a lead, polls since have generally favored Democrat Josh Stein. Stein has led in every public poll since July, and has now pulled ahead to an aggregate polling lead of 11% according to The Hill and DDHQ’s polling tracker.
In general, Robinson’s campaign has been extremely poor. Plagued by scandal after scandal, Robinson has failed to connect with voters and increasingly seemed like a liability set to lose – by a lot. In light of this, we’d anticipated shifting the race from a Tossup to Likely Democratic.
However, today’s news on Robinson changes things even further. Both state Republicans and the Trump campaign are reportedly urging Robinson to drop out of the race – if that’s even possible. The Trump campaign privately prohibited Robinson from attending campaign rallies.
The deadline for Robinson to drop out is quite literally today, and his name would still be on the ballot even if he does drop out. Robinson has said he’ll remain in the race – but simply put, there’s no reasonable path forward for him. We’re moving this race to Safe Democratic. If Robinson does drop out, we we will reconsider this rating.
Ramifications
Put simply: this is a DEFCON 1 situation for North Carolina Republicans. It’s abundantly clear that no further support will be offered to Robinson’s already floundering campaign. This could also have a devastating effect downballot; Republicans need to carry at least one Biden seat to win a supermajority in the state House, while carrying a number of urban and suburban tossup seats.
If Robinson is truly going to lose by a margin on 10 points or more, we expect the typical Republican downballot, split-ticket advantage to crumble. There’s no chance Republicans lose their majorities – but a supermajority in the state house seems far less likely now.
The state of the nation
With North Carolina off the board, we now only consider one state competitive – New Hampshire. Former Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) is facing former Westchester mayor Joyce Craig (D). While Democrats are favored in all federal races here, we do think this race is competitive, and polling appears to back this up. Ayotte has led in three of four public polls so far.
Of the remaining races, only two may be even mildly interesting. In Washington, Republicans got a quality nominee in former King County Sheriff and Congressman Dave Reichart. Polls show him performing slightly better than a standard Republican in Washington – but that’s not enough to win.
And in Utah, incumbent Republican Spencer Cox has to contend with a sore loser write-in campaign from Phil Lyman, who came within 10 points of unseating him in the primary. Additionally, there’s two other minor-party candidates on the ballot. This race won’t be competitive, but Cox may bleed some votes to these three minor candidates.
