Presidential Ratings Update: Kamala Harris Reshapes the Board

When Joe Biden announced that he was not going to run for re-election, we knew from the start the map would change. However, I don’t think anyone expected just how much things would shift in the span of a few weeks. Polls once showed a strong lead for former President Donald Trump; now, presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has pulled ahead.

We opted to give the news cycle a few weeks to calm down before changing our ratings. But it’s become clear now that the race is substantially different than what we saw in our last update. We’re making four ratings changes this update, and keeping an eye on several other states.

Ratings Changes

• Arizona – Leans Republican to Tossup
• Georgia – Leans Republican to Tossup
• Minnesota – Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
• Nevada – Leans Republican to Tossup

In early July, we shifted the trifecta of Sun Belt Tossups – Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada – to the Leans Republican column. However, this was contingent on a Biden-Trump race – one where Trump led in almost all state polls for a year. Since Harris took the reins, she’s led in some polls and closed the gap in others. Most notably, Harris appears to have pulled even in Georgia, a state Biden struggled mightily in. Needless to say – we’re moving all of these states back to Tossup.

We’re also moving Minnesota back to Likely Democratic. This decision would probably have come even without the nomination of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as Vice President, but it’s pretty clear now that this won’t be a highly-competitive state this November. Minnesota was always a reach for the Trump campaign, but we think this path is mostly closed off now.

States to Watch

For now, we’re keeping New Hampshire and Maine in the Leans Democratic column and New Mexico and Virginia in the Likely Democratic column. We haven’t received enough polling to change any of these states – and in Virginia, the most recent polls still indicate a fairly competitive race.

We’re also keeping an eye on North Carolina, which has seen some signs of interest for both parties. Joe Biden’s campaign made repeated attempts at inroads here to no avail; polls showed Trump with leads closer to double-digits than competitive territory. However, the Harris campaign is also making a big play here, and it seems to be paying off – polls now show a race in the low-to-mid single digits, and the Trump campaign has started to focus on responding. We think Trump is still favored here, but if trends continue, it’s possible we shift the Tar Heel State into the Tossup column in a future update.

The State of Play

As it stands right now, the path to the White House runs through the Rust Belt. Assuming Nebraska’s 2nd district remains in the Democratic column, Harris would receive exactly 270 electoral votes if she wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Other paths are possible – either Georgia or Arizona and Nevada could substitute for Michigan, for example – but those three Rust Belt states remain the most important to both sides, with Pennsylvania as the most crucial prize of all.

Our ratings changes, then, don’t fundamentally change the easiest path to victory. Instead, they open up alternative pathways for the Harris campaign while closing off Trump’s early edge. Given how tight polling is right now – most state polls show something equivalent to a dead heat in every tossup state – this election is shaping up to be a slugfest.