On June 9, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron shocked the world by calling a snap election for the National Assembly, following the French far-right’s win in the 2024 European Parliamentary elections. Elections for National Assembly are typically held right after the country’s presidential election, so this snap election was an unprecedented gamble in modern French politics, one which Macron hoped to strengthen his hand after two years of minority government rule.
Parties quickly scrambled to better position themselves for this election. Left-wing parties, ranging from the far-left La France Insoumise and the relatively moderate Socialists and Ecologists, set aside their differences and formed the “New Popular Front” in an attempt increase left-wing representation in the assembly. Pro-Macron and centrist parties formed the Ensemble, while a faction of the conservative Les Républicains broke ranks with the rest of the party to affiliate themselves with the ascendant far-right Rassemblement National, led by controversial three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Pre-election polling showed a lead for Le Pen’s RN, with about 34% of the popular votes, with the left-wing NFP in second with about 28% of the popular votes and Macron’s Ensemble in a distant third with about 20% of the popular votes. It became clear that the Rassemblement National and their LR allies were headed for a strong first-round showing, with some projections showing that an RN majority was possible.
Round One Results
As expected, the RN and their allies easily came out ahead, claiming a plurality in 297 seats, 8 more than a majority in the lower chamber. The NFP came second, claiming a plurality in 159 seats, while the Ensemble claimed a plurality in 70 seats. Les Républicains candidates not affiliated with the RN claimed pluralities in 20 seats.
RN’s strong showing in the first round led to a huge panic among leftists and centrists who feared far-right control over the domestic agenda and a new RN Prime Minister, likely party president Jordan Bardella. Despite reported opposition from Macron himself, The Ensemble and NFP coordinated to drop out third-place candidates in second-round runoff elections where RN had a chance of winning, so that the anti-RN vote could be consolidated.
As a result of this unofficial alliance, the likelihood of an RN majority in the National Assembly plummeted, and most projections had their seat total ranging from about 170-230 in the second round. While RN was still expected to finish first, the NFP could no longer be counted out, with their projected seat totals ranging from 155-198, while the Ensemble widely expected to finish 3rd and was projected to win anywhere between 115-160 seats. A hung parliament seemed inevitable.
Final Results
The theme of the final results was as expected: a hung Parliament.
The leader of the second round was unexpected but not outside pre-election projections: The NFP took a plurality of seats, winning 182 seats out of 577, an extremely unstable and weak 31.5% plurality in the National Assembly.
It was the RN’s weak showing in the second round that got most of the attention. They finished a shocking third place in this election, as they only managed to scrape 143 seats into their column. However, we must acknowledge the fact that the RN was the party that grew the most during this election season, as their caucus increased from 89 to 143.
The Ensemble held on for a surprising second-place showing, winning 168 seats, but this was a far cry from the 245 they had before the election. Macron’s snap-election gambit failed and backfired spectacularly, even though the far-right was not able to gain power through this election.
Les Républicains unaffiliated with the RN and other miscellaneous right candidates claimed 60 seats, down from before the election.
So What Now?
With the tri-polarization of French politics, and all three major factions despising each other, it is going to take a herculean effort for a governing majority to form.
With the RN placing a surprising third place, they are now completely out of the government-forming picture. Much of the discussion of government-forming is going to surround the NFP and the Ensemble, the rivals-turned-allies-turned-rivals.
With a plurality, the NFP should get first dibs at coalition forming, but Ensemble leaders including outgoing/temporarily-still Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and Horizons leader Édouard Philippe have ruled out governing with the far-left LFI, the biggest party in the left-wing coalition. Theoretically, the NFP can form a minority government (like Macron did in 2022), but with just 31.5% of the seats, that is just asking for trouble. The other possibility is a “grand coalition” that would include the moderate wings of the NFP (Ecologists/Socialists), Macronists/centrists, and the moderate remnants of Les Républicains, but this is also a longshot, with Republicans ruling out joining a governing coalition and the Socialists seemingly loyal to the NFP for the time being.
The identity of the next Prime Minister of France is also a huge question mark, with the incumbent Gabriel Attal already having submitted resignation papers but will “stay until needed.” While Macron can technically appoint anyone he wants, the Prime Minister could be removed by a vote of no confidence, which means that the PM typically comes from the largest governing faction.
Therefore, the Prime Minister is most likely to be produced from the NFP, although it is extremely unlikely that Macron will appoint anyone affiliated with the LFI. The two frontrunners are probably Socialist Assembly President Boris Vallaud and Place Publique Founder Raphaël Glucksmann, both affiliated with the relatively moderate Socialist Party and could be seen somewhat as compromise candidates between the left and the center. An out-of-the-box pick could be Laurent Berger, the former general secretary of the French Democratic Confederation of Labour and a relative moderate who has been thrown around by some on the left as a consensus candidate. If the “grand coalition” does indeed form between the center-left and center-right, then Ensemble Leader Stéphane Séjourné can’t be counted out of the running either, as Macron would definitely like to appoint someone from his own party, if possible.
With just weeks until the Paris Olympics, however, France is in a state of Parliamentary turmoil not seen in its modern history. Regardless of the outcome (or lack thereof) from coalition talks and government forming, France will be governed by an extremely unstable government unlikely to pass any notable legislation. Prepare for another likely snap election in 2025, in which there will perhaps be much more decisive results.
