House Ratings Update: New York Redraw Shifts Four Seats Left

After a long wait, New York finally has a new congressional map. Following a bipartisan vote in the legislature and the signature of Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, the state’s race for the House in 2024 can truly begin.

Much to the disappointment of New York Democrats, the new congressional map is only a mild gerrymander; Democrats had hoped to create a harsh gerrymander. The new map boosts only a handful of upstate Democrats while avoiding major changes in Long Island and Staten Island. Frankly, the changes are so minimal that it makes you wonder why the original map was even challenged to begin with.

New York Ratings

For the most part, the newly-adopted map is very similar to the old one. While the old map wasn’t perfect – it sliced up south Brooklyn, a Republican stronghold, with surgical precision – it represented a reasonably fair baseline that allowed Republicans to flip three districts in 2022.

The big loser of this map is NY-22 Rep. Brandon Williams (R), who sees his single-digit Biden seat shift into the double-digit range; this change is substantial enough that we have shifted the seat to Leans Democratic. We’re also shifting fellow upstate Democrat Pat Ryan’s district to Likely Democratic.

On the other hand, a Republican beneficiary of the new map is NY-01 Rep. Nick LaLota (R), whose marginal Biden seat is now a Trump+2 seat due to changes aimed at shoring up Tom Suozzi (D) in NY-03. We rate NY-01 at Likely Republican and NY-03 at Likely Democratic. Finally, one other change compared to our previous rating is in NY-04, which we now have at Leans Democratic. At Biden+14, this seat was already a stretch for Republicans to hold to begin with, and we think first-term Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) is an underdog to hold on.

There’s one other change to keep an eye on. In NY-16, second-term Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman is facing a bruising primary fight from Westchester County executive George Lattimer. Bowman, a progressive, has faced controversy in the district. His views on the Israel-Palestine conflict are out of step with many of the district’s Jewish residents, and he embarrassed himself when he pulled a fire alarm during a Democratic effort to delay a House vote, resulting in a congressional censure and misdemeanor charges. In a potential boon for Bowman, the new map shifts the Bronx’s majority-black Co-op City – a Bowman stronghold – into the district. However, it’s unclear what impact this will have on the race, as the proportion of the district rooted in Westchester County is unchanged.

The State of the Race

For now, all 50 states have set congressional maps; however, it’s very possible we see at least one or two more redraws before the election due to pending litigation in South Carolina and a probable court ruling in Wisconsin. For now, though, the state of the race is set, and both parties are favored in the same number of seats – 208.

The path to a majority goes through the 19 Tossup races. A bare majority of 10 is needed to get a numerical majority in the House, although Republicans would likely need a greater majority to have any real chance at governing.