New York is a strongly Democratic city—Joe Biden carried it by a margin of over 53 percentage points in 2020, and Republicans haven’t even received more than 23% in presidential races in the city since 1988. But down the ballot, New York City politics are more competitive. From 1994 to 2013, Democrats were locked out of the mayor’s office. And even as the city has realigned towards the Democratic norm in mayoral contests, Republicans have still performed ever-so-slightly better than their federal counterparts in them.
Furthermore, there’s signs Republicans might actually be able to make limited inroads in the New York City elections. In 2021, Republicans flipped two seats on the New York City Council: District 19 in Whitestone, Queens, and District 48 in Sheepshead Bay. In 2022, Republican Lee Zeldin received 30% of the vote in the city—the best margin for a statewide Republican in decades, and even more than the 27% George Pataki’s received in 1994. And in December 2022, councilman Ari Kagan switched parties to the GOP, bringing the total number of Republicans on the 51-member City Council to six—the party’s highest total since the 2001 elections.
The Seats to Watch
With crime and an ongoing migrant housing crisis being predominant concerns among many swing voters, New York City Republicans are hoping to expand even further. If Republicans can hold all their seats and flip even one more, they would have seven seats, their best total since 1997. In their best-case scenario, Republicans could win as many as nine districts. When paired with two conservative Democrats on the City Council (Bob Holden in Middle Village, Queens and Kalman Yeger in Borough Park, Brooklyn), the New York City Council could have as many as 11 conservative-leaning members, a shockingly formidable sum for such a large city. Democrats, meanwhile, have a handful of viable Republican targets as well.
We expect Democrats will win a minimum of 42 seats in the 2023 New York City Council elections. On the Republican side, we think they will win a minimum of four seats; two on Staten Island (Districts 50 in Mid-Island and 51 in South Shore, safe districts where incumbent Republicans are unopposed), one in South Brooklyn (District 48 in Sheepshead Bay, a Silwa+30, Zeldin+48 seat represented by first-termer Inna Vernikov), and one in Queens (District 32 in Howard Beach and Ozone Park, where incumbent Joann Ariola faces no opposition). This leaves a total of five seats we consider to be competitive.
District 13 (The Bronx, Marjorie Velázquez) – Leans Democratic
While the Bronx has a reputation as a Democratic bastion, with all three of Michael Bloomberg’s opponents attaining the most support there, there are pockets of Republican strength. The 13th District (Throgs Neck, Pelham Bay) contains almost all of these areas. This seat is plurality Hispanic (44%), with smaller White (32%), Black (12%), and Asian (4%) populations; Dominicans, Italians, and Puerto Ricans are the largest ethnicities here. First-termer Marjorie Velázquez is running against Republican and Conservative nominee Kristy Marmorato.
In the 2021 mayoral election, Republican Curtis Silwa narrowly beat Democrat Eric Adams by two points. In 2022’s gubernatorial race, however, Democrat Kathy Hochul won by a margin of seven points. Both have fundraised impressively: Velázquez has raised nearly $400,000, and Marmorato nearly $250,000. We think Velázquez is favored here, but a Republican upset isn’t out of the question.
District 19 (Queens, Vickie Paladino) – Likely Republican
Republican Vickie Paladino flipped this district in 2021, and we think she’s favored again in 2023. This diverse seat, based in north Queens, is plurality Asian (39%), with prominent White (38%) and Hispanic (18%) populations. Silwa carried it by 22%, while Zeldin won it by a smaller margin of 14%.
On paper, this is a seat Republicans should feel confident about holding, and we’re fairly confident as well. However, Paladino has a somewhat controversial reputation. Democrat Tony Avella, a former Councilmember State Senator, is a thoroughly credible nominee. An upset here isn’t impossible.
District 20 (Queens, Sandra Ung) – Leans Democratic
Republican Vickie Paladino flipped this district in 2021, and we think she’s favored again in 2023. This diverse seat, based in north Queens, is plurality Asian (39%), with prominent White (38%) and Hispanic (18%) populations. Silwa carried it by 22%, while Zeldin won it by a smaller margin of 14%.
On paper, this is a seat Republicans should feel confident about holding, and we’re fairly confident as well. However, Paladino has a somewhat controversial reputation. Democrat Tony Avella, a former Councilmember and State Senator, is a thoroughly credible nominee. An upset here isn’t impossible.
District 43 (Brooklyn, Open) – Leans Republican (flip)
Incumbent Democrat Justin Brannan was drawn into the 47th district with fellow Councilmember Kagan, leaving this district open for the taking. The nominees for this seat are Susan Zhuang, the Chief of Staff to longtime moderate Democratic Assemblyman Bill Colton, and Republican Ying Tan. This district is majority-Asian (53%), with smaller White (23%) and Hispanic (17%) populations. In recent city elections, Republicans have performed well here. Silwa carried it by 24% in 2021, and Zeldin won it by 23% in 2023.
Brannon narrowly won the previous version of the district in 2021, but this new open seat seems primed to flip. We think Republicans are favored here.
District 47 (Brooklyn, Ari Kagan/Justin Brannon) – Leans Democratic (flip)
As stated above, incumbent Councilmembers Brannan and Kagan were both drawn into this district, setting up a brutal fight. Stretching from Coney Island to Bay Ridge, this is without a doubt the most competitive seat in the city. A plurality here are White (49%), followed by a nearly even number of Asian (20%) and Hispanic (18%) voters. The seat narrowly voted for Adams in 2021 by a margin of 1%, and voted for Hochul in 2023 by a slightly wider margin of 3%.
As per our policy, we don’t leave seats as tossups. We narrowly fall on this being a Leans Democratic race. Both are strong, credible candidates with impressive fundraising. Both will have crossover appeal. Determinative to us though is that Brannan was re-elected by 2.4% in 2021, even as Sliwa carried his old seat by 10%. We expect the electorate to be substantively similar to that of 2021, and we think Brannan will retain sufficient crossover appeal to defeat Kagan. But we would be unsurprised to see Kagan eke it out. Again, both Kagan and Brannan are strong candidates, and this is undoubtedly the marquee district to watch.
