In 2022, California saw a remarkable status quo result in the elections for State Assembly, with Republicans only losing one net seat. This resulted in Democratic control of the lower chamber, with sixty-two seats going to the California Democratic Party and eighteen seats being won by the California Republican Party. Overall, the Democratic supermajority in the chamber was held, and Republicans failed to make inroads in some battleground districts, despite a favorable election year. However, with the Assembly district lines being finalized in 2021, Democrats were expected to flip several seats held by Republicans, and this did not materialize, allowing Republicans to keep the bulk of their seats. This article will look at the battleground districts decided by 10.00% or less in 2022.
The California State Assembly is comprised of eighty districts, all with less population than a Congressional district in California. The State Assembly has its lines redrawn with the State Senate and Federal Congress in California by an Independent Redistricting Commission, which has five members each who belong to the Democratic and Republican parties, with four members not affiliated with a political party. The redistricting cycle in California was delayed following the Covid-19 pandemic, but the commission managed to pass maps by the later deadline.
Overall Map and Results Table
District | Rep Votes | Dem Votes | Total Votes | RPCT | DCPT |
1 | 129,527 | 79,068 | 208,595 | 62.09% | 37.91% |
2 | 58,330 | 129,356 | 187,686 | 31.08% | 68.92% |
3 | 98,475 | 52,198 | 150,673 | 65.36% | 34.64% |
4 | 53,734 | 99,342 | 153,076 | 35.10% | 64.90% |
5 | 134,729 | 89,245 | 223,974 | 60.15% | 39.85% |
6 | 51,823 | 98,656 | 150,479 | 34.44% | 65.56% |
7 | 83,768 | 82,385 | 166,153 | 50.42% | 49.58% |
8 | 44,451 | 128,124 | 172,575 | 25.76% | 74.24% |
9 | 96,990 | 43,109 | 140,099 | 69.23% | 30.77% |
10 | 0 | 118,165 | 118,165 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
11 | 58,889 | 85,599 | 144,488 | 40.76% | 59.24% |
12 | 178,187 | 178,187 | 0.00% | 100.00% | |
13 | 0 | 85,564 | 85,564 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
14 | 18,242 | 139,331 | 157,573 | 11.58% | 88.42% |
15 | 48,911 | 100,712 | 149,623 | 32.69% | 67.31% |
16 | 68,149 | 130,813 | 198,962 | 34.25% | 65.75% |
17 | 0 | 147,361 | 147,361 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
18 | 13,504 | 120,863 | 134,367 | 10.05% | 89.95% |
19 | 31,252 | 133,316 | 164,568 | 18.99% | 81.01% |
20 | 110,770 | 110,770 | 0.00% | 100.00% | |
21 | 0 | 130,690 | 130,690 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
22 | 60,338 | 43,526 | 103,864 | 58.09% | 41.91% |
23 | 45,149 | 124,602 | 169,751 | 26.60% | 73.40% |
24 | 33,662 | 75,232 | 108,894 | 30.91% | 69.09% |
25 | 31,893 | 74,546 | 106,439 | 29.96% | 70.04% |
26 | 28,616 | 81,595 | 110,211 | 25.96% | 74.04% |
27 | 43,335 | 45,721 | 89,056 | 48.66% | 51.34% |
28 | 56,917 | 121,119 | 178,036 | 31.97% | 68.03% |
29 | 36,030 | 63,439 | 99,469 | 36.22% | 63.78% |
30 | 77,079 | 115,770 | 192,849 | 39.97% | 60.03% |
31 | 2,855 | 44,255 | 47,110 | 6.06% | 93.94% |
32 | 129,326 | 0 | 129,326 | 100.00% | 0.00% |
33 | 52,436 | 31,486 | 83,922 | 62.48% | 37.52% |
34 | 113,023 | 0 | 113,023 | 100.00% | 0.00% |
35 | 0 | 59,707 | 59,707 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
36 | 44,055 | 50,482 | 94,537 | 46.60% | 53.40% |
37 | 60,959 | 84,345 | 145,304 | 41.95% | 58.05% |
38 | 50,544 | 79,709 | 130,253 | 38.80% | 61.20% |
39 | 28,291 | 37,531 | 65,822 | 42.98% | 57.02% |
40 | 79,330 | 79,852 | 159,182 | 49.84% | 50.16% |
41 | 69,835 | 104,740 | 174,575 | 40.00% | 60.00% |
42 | 96,482 | 118,131 | 214,613 | 44.96% | 55.04% |
43 | 8,782 | 55,282 | 64,064 | 13.71% | 86.29% |
44 | 45,519 | 113,380 | 158,899 | 28.65% | 71.35% |
45 | 29,209 | 45,194 | 74,403 | 39.26% | 60.74% |
46 | 41,619 | 78,726 | 120,345 | 34.58% | 65.42% |
47 | 84,752 | 84,667 | 169,419 | 50.03% | 49.97% |
48 | 39,110 | 60,770 | 99,880 | 39.16% | 60.84% |
49 | 33,024 | 65,965 | 98,989 | 33.36% | 66.64% |
50 | 38,851 | 51,340 | 90,191 | 43.08% | 56.92% |
51 | 0 | 138,757 | 138,757 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
52 | 0 | 114,250 | 114,250 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
53 | 32,684 | 49,221 | 81,905 | 39.90% | 60.10% |
54 | 14,704 | 53,993 | 68,697 | 21.40% | 78.60% |
55 | 22,295 | 114,384 | 136,679 | 16.31% | 83.69% |
56 | 44,105 | 62,079 | 106,184 | 41.54% | 58.46% |
57 | 0 | 40,334 | 40,334 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
58 | 43,464 | 50,259 | 93,723 | 46.37% | 53.63% |
59 | 113,363 | 48,602 | 161,965 | 69.99% | 30.01% |
60 | 32,574 | 39,260 | 71,834 | 45.35% | 54.65% |
61 | 0 | 92,579 | 92,579 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
62 | 0 | 61,727 | 61,727 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
63 | 82,613 | 58,346 | 140,959 | 58.61% | 41.39% |
64 | 37,426 | 59,575 | 97,001 | 38.58% | 61.42% |
65 | 0 | 69,837 | 69,837 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
66 | 66,332 | 99,280 | 165,612 | 40.05% | 59.95% |
67 | 51,441 | 58,781 | 110,222 | 46.67% | 53.33% |
68 | 29,910 | 49,385 | 79,295 | 37.72% | 62.28% |
69 | 0 | 106,268 | 106,268 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
70 | 64,849 | 55,661 | 120,510 | 53.81% | 46.19% |
71 | 147,333 | 0 | 147,333 | 100.00% | 0.00% |
72 | 116,588 | 90,730 | 207,318 | 56.24% | 43.76% |
73 | 60,212 | 75,950 | 136,162 | 44.22% | 55.78% |
74 | 91,637 | 82,466 | 174,103 | 52.63% | 47.37% |
75 | 148,838 | 0 | 148,838 | 100.00% | 0.00% |
76 | 73,944 | 78,895 | 152,839 | 48.38% | 51.62% |
77 | 79,637 | 121,447 | 201,084 | 39.60% | 60.40% |
78 | 54,234 | 118,215 | 172,449 | 31.45% | 68.55% |
79 | 38,290 | 67,674 | 105,964 | 36.13% | 63.87% |
80 | 29,869 | 67,309 | 97,178 | 30.74% | 69.26% |
Total | 3,928,137 | 6,399,230 | 10,327,367 | 38.04% | 61.96% |
Margin | D +2,471,093 | D +23.92% |
California State Assembly District 7
7th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)
County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
Sacramento | 91,712 | 32.38% | 107,647 | 38.01% | 64,048 | 283,200 |
Total | 91,712 | 32.38% | 107,647 | 38.01% | 64,048 | 283,200 |
Margin | D +15,935 | D +5.63% |
In the current set of Assembly districts, the 7th Assembly District is in the Sacramento suburbs. Democrats have a registration advantage in the district, so it would be expected to vote Democratic in most election years. The district is also a Biden won district in 2020, and the district voted against the California Gubernatorial Recall.
In 2022, Ken Cooley, the Democratic incumbent who previously represented California’s 8th Assembly district, ran for re-election in this district. Four other Republicans ran in the top-two primary against Cooley: Josh Hoover, Raymond Riehle, Jeffrey Perrine, and Quentin Levesque. Hoover had worked as a legislative aide for then-Assemblymember Kevin Kiley, allowing him to draw on his experience working in politics. In the top-two primary, Cooley won the first-place slot 56,949 votes (50.9%) to Hoover’s 38,001 votes (34.0%). The other Republican candidates took 16,892 votes (15.1%). The Democratic candidate had won 50.9% of the primary vote, while the Republican candidates had combined for 49.1%.
7th District Election Data (In November election)
County | Hoover | Hoover % | Cooley | Cooley % | Total |
Sacramento | 83,768 | 50.42% | 82,385 | 49.58% | 166,153 |
Total | 83,768 | 50.42% | 82,385 | 49.58% | 166,153 |
Margin | R +1,383 | R +0.84% |
In the general election, Hoover won an upset over Cooley, finishing with 83,768 votes (50.42% of the general election vote) to Cooley’s 82,385 (49.58% of the general election vote). This was a particularly notable result because the district was Democratic-leaning and Cooley had been an incumbent with the full strength of the California Democratic Party behind him. In the end, Hoover won by a 1,373-vote margin, or by 0.84%, an extremely narrow result.
California State Assembly District 27
27th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)
County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
Fresno | 16,547 | 26.60% | 26,908 | 43.25% | 18,761 | 62,216 |
Madera | 11,932 | 29.62% | 15,853 | 39.35% | 12,499 | 40,284 |
Merced | 30,739 | 26.82% | 50,592 | 44.14% | 33,286 | 114,617 |
Total | 59,218 | 27.27% | 93,353 | 43.00% | 64,546 | 217,117 |
Margin | D +34,135 | D +15.73% |
The 27th district of California is in the interior of California, with the bulk of the district being contained within the Central Valley. The district’s population base is in a portion of Merced County. All three counties had a Democratic voter registration edge as of the November election, with Democrats enjoying a 43.00%-27.27% edge in the district, or a margin of 15.73%. However, as with the other districts in the Central Valley, the districts typically have a Democratic voter registration edge, but turnout dynamics favor Republicans.
In the top-two primary, two Democrats, two Republicans, and a Libertarian ran for the right to represent this district. Democrat Esmeralda Soria placed first in the primary election, winning 20,395 votes (40.1%), while Republican Mark Pazin finished in second place, with 17,801 votes (35.0%). The other three candidates, Republican Amanda Fleming, Democrat Mike Karbassi, and Libertarian write in candidate Randall Pellissier, combined for 12,652 votes, or 24.9% of the rest of the primary vote. Republican candidates combined for 26,342 votes (51.8%), while the Democratic candidates combined for 24,502 votes (48.2%).
27th District Election Data (In November election)
County | Pazin | Pazin % | Soria | Soira % | Total |
Fresno | 11,490 | 47.45% | 12,725 | 52.55% | 24,215 |
Madera | 8,577 | 52.80% | 7,667 | 47.20% | 16,244 |
Merced | 23,268 | 47.88% | 25,329 | 52.12% | 48,597 |
Total | 43,335 | 48.66% | 45,721 | 51.34% | 89,056 |
Margin | D +2,386 | D +2.68% |
In the general election, Soria won the district but underperformed its Democratic registration advantage. She won the district by winning Fresno and Merced by 3,296 votes, a larger margin than Pazin’s 910-vote win in Madera County. Overall, Soria won the district by a margin of 2,386 votes, or 2.68%.
California State Assembly District 36
36th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)
County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
Imperial | 18,237 | 20.98% | 41,600 | 47.85% | 27,105 | 86,942 |
Riverside | 52,975 | 37.18% | 60,190 | 42.24% | 29,314 | 142,479 |
San Bernardino | 1,204 | 42.29% | 792 | 27.82% | 2,847 | 2,847 |
Total | 72,416 | 31.18% | 102,582 | 44.17% | 59,266 | 232,268 |
Margin | D +30,166 | D +12.99% |
The 36th Assembly district of California is in the region known as the Inland Empire. The district includes portions of Imperial County, one of the southernmost counties in the state, as well as portions of Riverside and San Bernardino counties. The population bases in the district are both Imperial and Riverside Counties, with 86,942 and 142,479 voters at the time of the election. San Bernardino County has a small number of voters in the district. The district has a Democratic registration edge of 30,166 votes, or 12.99%.
In the top-two primary election, the Democratic incumbent Eduardo Garcia ran for re-election, facing off against two other challengers: Ian Weeks, a Republican, and Marlon Ware, a Democrat. Garcia finished first in the primary election, garnering 27,970 votes (48.0%), while Weeks secured the second general election slot with 25,584 votes (43.9%). Ware earned 4,728 votes (8.1%) and finished third. The Democratic candidates combined for 32,698 votes (56.1%), while the only Republican, Weeks, took 25,584 votes (43.9%).
36th District Election Data (In November election)
County | Weeks | Weeks % | Garcia | Garcia % | Total |
Imperial | 11,855 | 39.72% | 17,988 | 60.28% | 29,843 |
Riverside | 31,321 | 49.47% | 31,996 | 50.53% | 63,317 |
San Bernardino | 879 | 63.83% | 498 | 36.17% | 1,377 |
Total | 44,055 | 46.60% | 50,482 | 53.40% | 94,537 |
Margin | D +6,427 | D +6.80% |
In the general election, Garcia won a respectable victory over Weeks. He did this by winning Riverside County narrowly while securing a solid margin in the Democratic stronghold of Imperial County, which helped pad his winning margin and push him over the top. Weeks was able to win the tiny San Bernardino portion, but this did not provide enough votes for him to overcome Garcia’s lead in the rest of the district. Overall, Garcia won by 6,427 votes or 6.80%, much less than the 30,166 voter (12.99%) Democratic advantage in the district.
California State Assembly District 40
40th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)
County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
Los Angeles | 93,021 | 28.79% | 136,339 | 42.19% | 93,758 | 323,118 |
Total | 93,021 | 28.79% | 136,339 | 42.19% | 93,758 | 323,118 |
Margin | D +43,318 | D +13.40% |
The 40th Assembly district of California is located entirely within northern Los Angeles County and possesses a Democratic registration edge of 43,318 voters or by 13.40%. The district has some ancestral Republican DNA, as it has had Republican incumbents on multiple occasions. However it is a district Democrats would be expected to win by a solid margin based on the registration advantage. The closest analogous district in terms of California politics would be the current 27th congressional district, represented by Congressman Mike Garcia.
In the top-two primary, Republican incumbent Assemblymember Suzette Valladares ran for re-election, facing off against two Democratic challengers: Pilar Schiavo and Annie Cho. Valladares secured the first general election slot with 48,096 votes (47.4%), while Schiavo came in second with 34,415 votes (34.0%). The second Democrat, Cho, came in third with 18,891 votes (18.6%). The Democratic candidates combined for 53,305 votes (52.6%) while the only Republican candidate in the election secured 48,096 votes (47.4%).
40th District Election Data (In November election)
County | Valladares | Valladares % | Schiavo | Schiavo % | Total |
Los Angeles | 79,330 | 49.84% | 79,852 | 50.16% | 159,182 |
Total | 79,330 | 49.84% | 79,852 | 50.16% | 159,182 |
Margin | D +522 | D +0.32% |
In the general election, Schiavo won a narrow victory over Valladares, flipping the seat from Republican to Democratic. This incredibly close race was decided by only 522 votes – a margin of just 0.32%. Despite Valladares’s status as an incumbent, the Democratic lean of this seat was simply too much to overcome.
California State Assembly District 47
47th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)
County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
Riverside | 72,865 | 30.66% | 102,955 | 43.32% | 61,869 | 237,689 |
San Bernardino | 31,149 | 43.40% | 20,834 | 29.03% | 19,789 | 71,772 |
Total | 104,014 | 33.61% | 123,789 | 40.00% | 81,658 | 309,461 |
Margin | D +19,775 | D +6.39% |
The 47th Assembly district of California is in the interior of Southern California. The population base in the district is in Riverside County, where 237,689 voters at the time of the election resided. Democrats enjoy an edge in that portion of the district. In San Bernardino, which has less voters than the Riverside County portion, Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 10,000 voters. Overall, the district has a Democratic voter registration edge of 19,775 voters, or by 6.39%. The district had been represented by Independent Chad Mayes (first elected as a Republican), who was not running for re-election.
In the top two-primary, Democrat Christy Holstege secured the first general election slot with 51,169 votes (46.5%), while Republican Greg Wallis earned the second slot with 37,996 votes (34.5%). Another two candidates also ran: Republican Gary Michaels, who garnered 12,716 votes (11.5%), and Democrat Jamie Swain, who achieved 8,200 votes (7.4%). The Democratic candidates combined for 59,369 votes (53.9%), while the Republican candidates combined for 50,712 votes (46.0%). Heading into the general election, with the partisan lean of the district working in her favor, Democrat Holstege was favored to win the district.
47th District Election Data (In November election)
County | Wallis | Wallis % | Holstege | Holstege % | Total |
Riverside | 60,303 | 46.01% | 70,758 | 53.99% | 131,061 |
San Bernardino | 24,449 | 63.74% | 13,909 | 36.26% | 38,358 |
Total | 84,752 | 50.03% | 84,667 | 49.97% | 169,419 |
Margin | R +85 | R +0.06% |
It was not clear who was the winner a couple of weeks after election night, due to a recount of the district’s results. When all the votes were recanvassed, Republican Wallis had won an extremely close victory over Democrat Christy Holstege by an incredibly small margin of just 85 votes. While Holster won the more populous Riverside County portion by 10,455 votes, Wallis dominated the smaller San Bernardino County portion, carrying it by 10,540 votes, a margin of victory of 27.5%.
California Assembly District 58
58th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)
County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
Riverside | 62,779 | 26.17% | 109,168 | 45.51% | 67,917 | 239,864 |
San Bernardino | 2,509 | 31.95% | 3,046 | 38.79% | 2,297 | 7,852 |
Total | 65,288 | 26.36% | 112,214 | 45.30% | 70,214 | 247,716 |
Margin | D +46,926 | D +18.94% |
California’s 58th Assembly District is in the desert interior of Southern California, including Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. The population base is in Riverside County, where most of the district’s residents live. Democrats enjoy a considerable edge in the Riverside County portion, while also having an edge in the tiny San Bernardino County portion. The district, on paper, is solidly Democratic, as overall, Democrats have a 46,926-voter registration edge at the time of the election, or by 18.94%.
In the top-two primary election, the Democratic incumbent, Sabrina Cervantes, ran for re-election, securing the first general election slot with 28,568 votes (54.1%), while Republican Bernard Murphy earned the second with 13,449 votes (25.5%). A third Republican, Leticia Castillo, earned 10,756 votes (20.4%). The Democratic candidate earned 28,568 votes (54.1%), while the Republican candidates combined for 24,205 votes (45.9%).
58th District Election Data (In November election)
County | Murphy | Murphy % | Cervantes | Cervantes % | Total |
Riverside | 41,531 | 46.13% | 48,503 | 53.87% | 90,034 |
San Bernardino | 1,933 | 52.40% | 1,756 | 47.60% | 3,689 |
Total | 43,464 | 46.37% | 50,259 | 53.63% | 93,723 |
Margin | D +6,795 | D +7.26% |
In the general election, Cervantes won a closer-than-expected victory over Murphy. While Joe Biden had carried the seat by 19.1%, Cervantes only eked out a 6,795 vote win, or a 7.3% margin of victory; this result was, however, less competitive than the Gubernatorial race, where Governor Gavin Newsom won by less than 3%.
California Assembly District 60
60th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)
County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
Riverside | 50,835 | 22.74% | 106,165 | 47.49% | 66,529 | 223,529 |
Total | 50,835 | 22.74% | 106,165 | 47.49% | 66,529 | 223,529 |
Margin | D +55,330 | D +24.75% |
The 60th Assembly district of California is located entirely within Riverside County. The district has a solidly Democratic registration advantage of 55,330 voters at the time of the election, or by 24.75%. This is a district Democrats would be expected to win by larger margins in a typical election. In 2022, the district was home to an open seat election.
In the top-two primary, Republican Hector Diaz-Nava won the first general election slot with 16,518 votes (39.9%), while Democrat Corey Jackson secured the second slot with 11,158 votes (27.0%). Democrats Esther Portillo and Jasmin Rubio earned 8,219 (19.9%) and 5,471 (13.2%) votes, respectively. The three Democrats combined for 24,838 votes (60.1%), while the Republican earned 16,518 votes (39.9%). Heading into the November election, the Democratic candidate was favored.
60th District Election Data (In November election)
County | Diaz-Nava | Diaz-Nava % | Jackson | Jackson % | Total |
Riverside | 32,574 | 45.35% | 39,260 | 54.65% | 71,834 |
Total | 32,574 | 45.35% | 39,260 | 54.65% | 71,834 |
Margin | D +6,686 | D +9.30% |
In the general election, Jackson won a closer than expected victory over Diaz-Nava. Jackson earned 39,260 votes (54.65%), to Diaz-Nava’s 32,574 votes (45.35%). The race was close to a combination of the midterm election dynamics, where fewer registered voters turn out, as well as the national environment, which was more Republican leaning nationwide. Overall, however, Jackson won a 6,686-vote victory, or by a margin of 9.30%, much less than the 24.75% Democratic voter registration edge, but on par with the gubernatorial toppling.
California Assembly District 67
67th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)
County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
Los Angeles | 11,039 | 22.10% | 22,631 | 45.30% | 16,286 | 49,956 |
Orange | 54,158 | 27.13% | 86,622 | 43.39% | 58,875 | 199,655 |
Total | 65,197 | 26.12% | 109,253 | 43.77% | 75,161 | 249,611 |
Margin | D +44,056 | D +17.65% |
The 67th Assembly district of California is in Southern California, comprising part of Los Angeles County and a sizable portion of Orange County. Democrats have a voter registration edge in both parts of the district. Democrats had a 44,056-voter advantage (17.65%) at the time of the election.
In the top-two primary, Democratic incumbent Sharon Quirk-Silva ran for reelection, securing the first general election slot with 30,874 votes (47.7%), while Republican challenger Soo Yoo earned the second slot with 25,005 votes (38.6%). Two other candidates also ran: Democratic challenge Param Brar, who earned 4,800 votes (7.4%), and Republican Sou Moua, who garnered 4,076 votes (6.3%). The Democratic candidates combined for 35,673 votes (55.1%), while the Republican candidates combined for 29,081 votes (44.9%). The Democratic candidate was favored headed into the November election.
67th District Election Data (In November election)
County | Yoo | Yoo % | Quirk-Silva | Quirk-Silva % | Total |
Los Angeles | 9,774 | 44.73% | 12,075 | 55.27% | 21,849 |
Orange | 41,667 | 47.15% | 46,706 | 52.85% | 88,373 |
Total | 51,441 | 46.67% | 58,781 | 53.33% | 110,222 |
Margin | D +7,340 | D +6.66% |
In the general election, Quirk-Silva won a closer than expected victory over Republican challenger Yoo, defeating him by 7,340 votes (a margin of 6.66%). She was able to do this by winning Orange County by a larger margin than Yoo, while also winning the Los Angeles County portion. However, the final margin was less than the Democratic voter registration edge, as well as Biden’s 2020 performance and Newsom’s 8.6% win. This may have been due to a strong challenge by Yoo, a Republican advantage in the national environment, or midterm dynamics.
California Assembly District 70
70th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)
County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
Orange | 84,535 | 32.78% | 95,821 | 37.16% | 77,535 | 257,891 |
Total | 84,535 | 32.78% | 95,821 | 37.16% | 77,535 | 257,891 |
Margin | D +11,286 | D +4.38% |
The 70th Assembly district of California is located entirely within Orange County. The district has a Democratic voter registration edge of 11,286 voters, or a margin of 4.38%, making it one of the battleground districts within the state. Biden narrowly carried this seat in 2020 by 0.4%.
In the top-two primary, Democrat Diedre Nguyen won the first general election slot with 31,293 votes (39.7%), while Republican candidate Tri Ta won the second general election slot with 16,708 votes (21.2%). Four other Republican candidates competed: Ted Bui, who won 10,968 votes (13.9%), Kimberly Ho, who won 10,936 votes (13.9%), Emily Hibard, who won 5,278 votes (6.7%), and Jason Gray, who won 3,624 votes (4.6%). The Republican candidates combined for 47,514 votes (60.3%, while the lone Democrat in the race garnered 31,293 votes (39.7%).
70th District Election Data (In November election)
County | Ta | Ta % | Nguyen | Nguyen % | Total |
Orange | 64,849 | 53.81% | 55,661 | 46.19% | 120,510 |
Total | 64,849 | 53.81% | 55,661 | 46.19% | 120,510 |
Margin | R +9,188 | R +7.62% |
In the general election, Ta won the district over Nguyen. Ta won the district by a margin of 9,188 votes (7.62%). This margin was much less than the Democratic registration edge of 11,286 (4.38%), and was also greater than Dahle’s 3.4% margin in the seat. Ta demonstrated clear crossover appeal to voters, overcoming the partisan lean of the seat amidst a favorable Republican environment. This seat will likely be a target for the California Democratic Party in 2024.
California Assembly District 74
74th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)
County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
Orange | 54,925 | 40.26% | 42,537 | 31.18% | 38,977 | 136,439 |
San Diego | 48,049 | 29.73% | 62,607 | 38.74% | 50,968 | 161,624 |
Total | 102,974 | 34.55% | 105,144 | 35.28% | 89,945 | 298,063 |
Margin | D +2,170 | D +0.73% |
The 74th Assembly district of California is located on the Southern California coast, being made up of portions of Orange and San Diego Counties. The population base is in San Diego County, although the portions in both counties have a near equal number of registered voters. Republicans hold an edge in the Orange County portion, while Democrats lead in San Diego. The district has an overall Democratic voter edge of 2,170 voters, or 0.73%.
In the top-two primary, incumbent Republican Laurie Davies ran for re-election, securing the first general election slot with 60,568 votes (53.9%), while the Democratic candidate in the election, Chris Duncan, won 51,768 votes (46.1%). Heading into the general election, Davies was favored because she had the advantage of the Republican national environment and incumbency on her side.
74th District Election Data (In November election)
County | Davies | Davies % | Duncan | Duncan % | Total |
Orange | 49,702 | 57.52% | 36,704 | 42.48% | 86,406 |
San Diego | 41,935 | 47.82% | 45,762 | 52.18% | 87,697 |
Total | 91,637 | 52.63% | 82,466 | 47.37% | 174,103 |
Margin | R +9,171 | R +5.26% |
In the general election, Davies won re-election against Duncan. Davies won the Orange County portion by a wide 15-point margin while holding Duncan to only a slight advantage in San Diego. This allowed her to win the district overall by a margin of 9,171 votes (5.26%).
California Assembly District 76
76th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)
County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
San Diego | 83,412 | 30.45% | 102,811 | 37.53% | 87,752 | 273,975 |
Total | 83,412 | 30.45% | 102,811 | 37.53% | 87,752 | 273,975 |
Margin | D +19,399 | D +7.08% |
The 76th Assembly district of California is located entirely within San Diego County and is a modestly Democratic leaning area. Democrats have a voter registration edge of 19,399 voters (7.08%). It would be expected that a Democrat would win the district in most election years; however, it was seen as competitive due to the Republican national environment and typical midterm dynamics.
In the top-two primary, Democratic incumbent Brian Maienschein ran for re-election, securing the first general election slot with 48,635 votes (49.9%), while Republican Kristie Bruce-Lane won the second slot with 27,375 votes (28.1%). A second Republican, June Cutter, finished in third with 21,381 votes (22.0%). The Republican candidates combined for 48,756 votes (50.1%), while the Democratic candidate secured 48,635 votes (49.9%).
76th District Election Data (In November election)
County | Bruce-Lane | Bruce-Lane % | Maienschein | Maienschein % | Total |
San Diego | 73,944 | 48.38% | 78,895 | 51.62% | 152,839 |
Total | 73,944 | 48.38% | 78,895 | 51.62% | 152,839 |
Margin | D +4,951 | D +3.24% |
In the general election, Maienschien won a narrow victory over Bruce-Lane, winning the district by a 3.2% margin. It should be noted that this was less than the 19,399 (7.08%) Democratic voter registration edge in the district, and was roughly on par with Newsom’s lead in the seat.