The 2022 California House Elections

In 2021, California engaged in the often-contentious act of redistricting, which forces a state to redraw its congressional and state legislative districts. The 2021 California Redistricting Commission redrew the districts after much debate, with the map slightly favoring the Democratic Party. As such, the Republican Party was expected to lose several districts in the 2022 elections.

Most of these districts were in more rural parts of the state, as the California Republican Party had experienced a loss of seats in 2018. However, the California Republican Party was able to claw back several seats in 2020, and the expectation was that that the 2022 House elections, after redistricting, would lead to them losing a few seats that they had gained in 2020. This article will explore the districts decided by 10% or less.

The 2022 Election Results

On Election Night, many political observers anticipated the election results anxiously. The California Republican Party was in an advantageous position, as they were leading in several battleground and swing districts However, California is one of the states that allows all ballots postmarked by election day to arrive in the ballot processing centers, which extended the ballot counting deadline.

With hundreds of election workers working laboriously, the ballot counting finished several weeks later when the outcome of the House of Representatives was in doubt. When the dust settled, the tipping point seat for national Republicans controlling the House of Representatives was in northern Los Angeles County, with Congressman Mike Garcia winning against Democratic challenger Christy Smith. In the end, the California Republican Party held all its congressional seats in California, while flipping one district in the heavily agricultural Central Valley.

District	Rep	Dem	Total	Rep %	Dem %
1	152,839	93,386	246,225	62.07%	37.93%
2	79,029	229,720	308,749	25.60%	74.40%
3	181,438	156,761	338,199	53.65%	46.35%
4	84,007	176,900	260,907	32.20%	67.80%
5	173,524	109,506	283,030	61.31%	38.69%
6	95,325	121,058	216,383	44.05%	55.95%
7	70,033	150,618	220,651	31.74%	68.26%
8	46,634	145,501	192,135	24.27%	75.73%
9	78,802	95,598	174,400	45.18%	54.82%
10	52,965	198,415	251,380	21.07%	78.93%
11	42,217	220,848	263,065	16.05%	83.95%
12	22,859	217,110	239,969	9.53%	90.47%
13	67,060	66,496	133,556	50.21%	49.79%
14	60,852	137,612	198,464	30.66%	69.34%
15	0	194,874	194,874	0.00%	100.00%
16	0	241,007	241,007	0.00%	100.00%
17	52,400	127,853	180,253	29.07%	70.93%
18	51,737	99,776	151,513	34.15%	65.85%
19	88,816	194,494	283,310	31.35%	68.65%
20	153,844	74,932	228,776	67.25%	32.75%
21	57,573	68,074	125,647	45.82%	54.18%
22	52,993	49,859	102,852	51.52%	48.48%
23	103,197	65,908	169,105	61.03%	38.97%
24	103,533	159,019	262,552	39.43%	60.57%
25	65,101	87,641	152,742	42.62%	57.38%
26	112,214	134,575	246,789	45.47%	54.53%
27	104,624	91,892	196,516	53.24%	46.76%
28	76,495	150,062	226,557	33.76%	66.24%
29	0	119,435	119,435	0.00%	100.00%
30	0	211,068	211,068	0.00%	100.00%
31	62,153	91,472	153,625	40.46%	59.54%
32	74,618	167,411	242,029	30.83%	69.17%
33	56,119	76,588	132,707	42.29%	57.71%
34	0	121,467	121,467	0.00%	100.00%
35	55,832	75,121	130,953	42.64%	57.36%
36	84,264	194,299	278,563	30.25%	69.75%
37	0	131,880	131,880	0.00%	100.00%
38	73,051	101,260	174,311	41.91%	58.09%
39	55,701	75,896	131,597	42.33%	57.67%
40	161,589	122,722	284,311	56.84%	43.16%
41	123,869	112,769	236,638	52.35%	47.65%
42	45,903	99,217	145,120	31.63%	68.37%
43	27,985	95,462	123,447	22.67%	77.33%
44	38,554	100,160	138,714	27.79%	72.21%
45	113,960	103,466	217,426	52.41%	47.59%
46	48,257	78,041	126,298	38.21%	61.79%
47	128,261	137,374	265,635	48.28%	51.72%
48	155,171	101,900	257,071	60.36%	39.64%
49	138,194	153,541	291,735	47.37%	52.63%
50	99,819	168,816	268,635	37.16%	62.84%
51	88,886	144,186	233,072	38.14%	61.86%
52	50,330	100,686	151,016	33.33%	66.67%
Total	3,912,627	6,743,732	10,656,359	36.72%	63.28%
Margin		D +2,831,105			D +26.56%

Note: Some candidates are shown as Republican or Democratic if they are third party candidates.

California Congressional District 3

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Alpine	216	23.60%	388	42.40%	311	915
El Dorado	15,430	34.39%	15,229	33.94%	14,199	44,858
Inyo	4,183	38.98%	3,668	34.18%	2,878	10,729
Mono	2,288	29.67%	3,088	40.05%	2,334	7,710
Nevada	23,863	32.03%	29,593	39.72%	21,032	74,488
Placer	112,111	40.18%	88,405	31.68%	78,500	279,016
Plumas	6,142	44.35%	3,899	28.15%	3,807	13,848
Sacramento	28,377	36.04%	26,708	33.92%	23,644	78,729
Sierra	986	44.43%	590	26.58%	643	2,219
Yuba	4,233	50.77%	1,852	22.21%	2,251	8,336
Total	197,829	37.98%	173,420	33.30%	149,599	520,848
Margin	R +24,409	R +4.68%

The 3^rd District of California is comprised of ski country mixed with the interior California counties around Sacramento. It also includes a small portion of Sacramento County. The district is one of the odd congressional districts in the United States where Republicans tend to do better in the more populated portions of the district, while Democrats tend to perform better in the more sparsely populated counties. It is a battleground seat, but is slightly Republican-leaning in most elections, and it has a 4.68% Republican voter registration advantage.

In the top-two primary held to determine the two candidates for the general election, the seat was host to an open-seat race, as Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock ran in the fifth congressional district instead. The candidates for 2022 in the district were Kevin Kiley, a Republican state assemblymember and 2021 gubernatorial recall election candidates, Kermit Jones, an internal medicine doctor and a U.S. Navy veteran, Scott Jones, the Republican Sheriff of Sacramento County, and David Peterson, a longtime Democratic candidate. In the top-two primary, Kiley secured the first general election slot with 93,552 votes (39.7%), while Kermit Jones earned the second slot with 91,217 votes (38.7%). The rest of the two candidates took 50,963 votes (21.6%). The Republican candidates combined for 131,840 votes (55.9%) to the Democrat’s 103,892 votes (44.1%).

County	Kiley	Kiley %	Jones	Jones %	Total
Alpine	241	39.38%	371	60.62%	612
El Dorado	13,433	51.68%	12,562	48.32%	25,995
Inyo	3,775	51.44%	3,563	48.56%	7,338
Mono	1,882	41.69%	2,632	59.31%	4,514
Nevada	22,290	44.00%	28,363	56.00%	50,653
Placer	102,352	56.42%	79,058	43.58%	181,410
Plumas	5,103	59.40%	3,487	40.60%	8,590
Sacramento	27,639	52.92%	24,585	47.08%	52,224
Sierra	971	62.52%	582	37.48%	1,553
Yuba	3,752	70.66%	1,558	39.44%	5,310
Total	181,438	53.60%	156,761	46.40%	338,199
Margin	R +24,677	R +7.20%

In the general election, Kiley defeated Jones in a convincing fashion in the battleground district. He did this by taking Placer County by nearly 13 points and the rest of the district by just under a percentage point The district’s raw vote margin (24,677) was not that far off from the Republican registration advantage margin (24,409). In the end, Kiley won by 24,677, a margin of victory of 7.20%.

California Congressional District 9                           

9^th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Contra Costa	4,447	38.06%	4,022	34.42%	3,214	11,683
San Joaquin	102,989	27.95%	161,370	43.80%	104,055	368,414
Stanislaus	687	60.90%	195	17.28%	246	1,128
Total	108,123	28.36%	165,587	43.44%	107,515	381,225
Margin			D +57,464	D +15.08%

The 9^th district is located within parts of the Central Valley, chiefly in San Joaquin County . The district includes a small Republican leaning portion of Contra Costa County, as well as a heavily Republican but sparsely populated part of Stanislaus County. The portion of San Joaquin County is heavily Democratic, outvoting the rest of the district. Overall, the district is Democratic-leaning, and Democrats have a double-digit advantage in voter registration (around 15.08%). However, some low-propensity Democratic voters do not always turn out in midterm election years, which gives Republicans the chance to create a close election or assuming the turnout trends are favorable, potentially win the district.

In 2022, incumbent Jerry McNerney retired, and Democrat Josh Harder switched to run in this district for his re-election. He ran against a whole host of other candidates, the most politically experienced being Republican Tom Patti, who was the Chair of the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors. Harder secured the first general election slot in the primary with 39,026 votes (36.7%) while Patti earned the second general election slot with 30,843 votes (29.0%). The rest of the candidates got 36,432 votes (34.3%). The Democratic candidates combined for 59,257 votes (55.74%), while the Republican candidates took 52,278 votes (49.18%). A third-party candidate took the remaining vote.

County	Patti	R %	Harder	D %	Total
Contra Costa	3,860	58.06%	2,788	41.94%	6,648
San Joaquin	74,445	44.60%	92,603	55.40%	167,048
Stanislaus	497	70.60%	207	29.40%	704
Total	78,802	45.20%	95,598	54.80%	174,400
Margin			D +16,796	D +9.6%

In the general election, Harder won by closer than expected in this Democratic-leaning district. He underperformed the Democratic registration edge in the district, although some of the district was new to him, so this was expected to some degree. He won by winning San Joaquin County by nearly 11 percentage points, overwhelming Patti’s margins in the small rural counties. Overall, Harder won the district by 16,796 votes, a margin of victory of 9.6%.

California Congressional District 13        

13^th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Fresno	9,886	28.51%	14,598	42.10%	10,193	34,677
Madera	16,720	33.39%	18,409	36.76%	14,950	50,079
Merced	35,401	28.40%	53,451	42.88%	35,807	124,659
San Joaquin	4,968	24.57%	8,992	44.47%	6,261	20,221
Stanislaus	25,690	26.62%	43,978	56.57%	26,850	96,518
Total	92,665	28.41%	139,428	42.75%	94,061	326,154
Margin			D +46,763	D +14.34%

The 13^th district is in the politically swingy Central Valley, where registration favors Democratic candidates, but the turnout dynamics favor Republicans. The 13^th district is a Democratic-leaning district, as Democrats enjoy a 14.34% registration advantage at the time of the November election. The district is made up of parts of Fresno, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties, with Merced and Stanislaus being the population bases. This is a district that Democrats would be expected to win, but would not be immune to a strong Republican challenger because of the turnout dynamics in the Central Valley.

The top-two primary saw five candidates running for the district, and it was an open-seat race, as Incumbent Josh Harder had sought re-election in a different district. The Democratic frontrunner was Adam Gray, a state assemblymember, while the Republican candidates were seen as long-shot candidates. In the primary election, Republican dairy farmer John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray took the two general election slots 26,163 and 23,784 votes, respectively (34.2% and 31.1% of the vote). The rest of the candidates combined for 26,445 votes, or 34.7% of the vote. The Republican candidates combined for 39,509 votes (51.7%) while the Democratic candidates combined for 36,883 votes (48.3%).

County	Duarte	R %	Gray	D %	Total
Fresno	7,415	54.91%	6,089	45.09%	13,504
Madera	12,642	58.38%	9,011	41.62%	21,653
Merced	26,108	47.74%	28,577	52.26%	54,685
San Joaquin	4,092	47.09%	4,597	52.91%	8,689
Stanislaus	16,803	47.97%	18,222	52.03%	35,025
Total	67,060	50.20%	66,496	49.80%	133,556
Margin	R +564	R +0.4%

When the results were known, Duarte had won an upset victory over Gray in this district. Duarte likely benefitted from low Democratic turnout in the Merced and Stanislaus portions of the district and was able to win most of the other parts of the district by enough to secure a 564-vote victory. Duarte won Madera County by 3,631 votes, Fresno by 1,326 votes, while Gray won by 2,469 votes in Merced, 505 votes San Joaquin, and 1,419 votes in Stanislaus. Duarte’s margin in Madera was the decisive factor to his victory. However, this district will be a top Democratic target in 2024.

California Congressional District 21        

21^st District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Fresno	62,915	23.78%	120,833	45.67%	80,841	264,589
Tulare	25,572	34.90%	25,786	35.19%	21,909	73,267
Total	88,487	26.19%	146,619	43.40%	102,750	337,856
Margin			D +58,132	D +22.21%

The 21^st district is in the heavily Latino Central Valley and is a firmly Democratic leaning district in terms of party registration, but Republicans tend to turn out at higher rates than Democrats in the Central Valley. The district consists of parts of Fresno and Tulare counties, with Fresno making up the population base. Democrats lead in terms of registration in both counties, although Republicans have a near equal number of voters as Democrats in Tulare County.

In 2022, incumbent Democrat Jim Costa ran for r-e-election against three other candidates: Michael Maher, a Republican who owns an aviation company, Eric Garcia, a Democrat who is a therapist, and Matt Stoll, a business owner. In the top-two primary, Costa secured the first general election slot with 33,850 votes (47.0%), while Maher secured the second general election slot with 19,040 votes (26.4%). The rest of the candidates took 19,170 votes (26.6%). The Democrats combined for 41,089 votes (57.0%), while the Republican candidates combined for 30,971 votes (43.0%).

County	Maher	Maher %	Costa	Costa %	Total
Fresno	39,494	41.60%	55,434	58.40%	94,928
Tulare	18,079	58.85%	12,640	41.15%	30,719
Total	57,573	45.82%	68,074	54.18%	125,647
Margin			D +10,501	D +8.36%

In the general election, Costa won re-election by a 10,501 vote margin, or 8.4%. Costa was able to do this by building a 15,940-vote lead in Fresno County that outpaced Maher’s 5,439 vote victory in Tulare County. This district, normally safely Democratic, is an example of the turnout trends helping Republicans, but not being quite enough to flip the seat.

California Congressional District 21        

22^nd District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Kern	45,351	22.78%	92,473	46.44%	61,281	199,105
Kings	10,236	32.26%	12,554	39.57%	8,936	31,726
Tulare	22,938	32.21%	25,901	36.37%	22,383	71,222
Total	78,525	26.00%	130,928	43.35%	92,600	302,053
Margin			D +52,403	D +17.35%

The 22^nd district is in the Central Valley and on paper is a heavily Democratic district, but moderate incumbent Republican David Valadao has had success winning re-election time and time again. The only time he has lost the district in 2018 to Democrat T.J. Cox. Valadao won back the district in 2020 and demonstrates extraordinary crossover voting support from Democrats in the district. The 22^nd district is comprised of a heavily Democratic portion of Kern County, and two smaller slightly Democratic-leaning portions of Kings and Tulare. Democrats enjoy a 17.35% voter registration edge in the district.

In 2022, Republican David Valadao ran for re-election against Democratic Assemblymember Rudy Salas and two other Republicans: Chris Mathys and Adam Medeiros. In the top-two primary, Salas placed first in the voting with 25,337 votes (45.2%), while Valadao fought for second place with Chris Mathys, eventually securing the second general election slot with 14,331 votes (25.6%).. The Republican candidates combined for 30,692 votes (54.8%), meaning Republicans outpolled the Democratic candidate in the primary.

County	Valadao	Valadao %	Salas	Salas %	Total
Kern	30,649	47.37%	34,053	52.63%	64,702
Kings	6,695	56.43%	5,170	43.57%	11,865
Tulare	15,650	59.53%	10,639	40.47%	26,289
Total	52,994	51.52%	49,862	48.48%	102,856
Margin	R +3,132	R +3.04%

After the general election all votes were counted, it became apparent that Valadao had held on against Gray by a margin of 3,132 votes, or 3%.He was able to chart a path to victory by winning Kings and Tulare counties by 1,525 and 6,011 votes, respectively. Salas won the Kern County portion by only 3,404 vote. This difference in votes allowed Valadao to win the district overall with his ability to keep the more Democratic leaning portion of Kern County close a crucial factor in his win.

 California Congressional District 26        

26^th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Los Angeles	10,006	26.39%	16,899	44.57%	11,014	37,919
Ventura	118,945	28.64%	178,913	43.08%	117,426	415,284
Total	128,951	28.45%	195,812	43.21%	128,440	453,203
Margin			D +66,861	D +14.76%

The 26^th district is located mostly in Ventura County, with a small sliver of Los Angeles making up the rest of the district. Both portions are Democratic-leaning, with the Ventura County portion making up the population base. Democrats have a 14.76% registration advantage in the district and would thus be favored.

Incumbent Julia Brownley ran for re-election in this Democratic leaning district in 2022 against four other candidates: Republican Matt Jacobs, Republican Paul Taylor, Republican Fadde Mikhail, and Non-affiliated Dave Goodman. In the top-two primary, Brownley secured 91,535 votes (54.3%), whereas Jacobs won the second slot with 64,835 votes (38.4%). The Republican candidates combined for 72,222 votes (43.3%), while the third-party candidate got 3,950 votes (2.3%)

County	Jacobs	Jacobs %	Brownley	Brownley %	Total
Los Angeles	9,179	41.13%	13,140	58.87%	22,319
Ventura	103,035	45.90%	121,435	54.10%	224,470
Total	112,214	45.47%	134,575	54.53%	246,789
Margin			D +22,361	D +9.06%

In the general election, Brownley had won by 22,361 votes, a 9.1% margin of victory. She won both counties in the district by reasonably comfortable margins. However, she underperformed the Democratic registration advantage of the district, and as a result won by a smaller than expected margin, signifying that Jacobs had managed to keep the district closer than expected.

California Congressional District 27

27^th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Los Angeles	128,802	29.25%	183,863	41.75%	127,687	440,352
Total	128,802	29.25%	183,863	41.75%	127,687	440,352
Margin			D +55,061	D +12.50%

The 27^th district is made up of northern Los Angeles County. It’s a battleground district that is ancestrally Republican, but Democrats had won the district in 2018. The district is home to aerospace companies and has a Democratic registration advantage of 12.50%. Incumbent Mike Garcia, a Republican, had won the district in a special election to replace embattled Representative Katie Hill, and won the seat against Assemblymember Christy Garcia in 2020 by a narrow margin. This district was expected to be a top Democratic takeover in 2022 because the seat was made more Democratic in redistricting.

In the top-two primary, Garcia received 57,469 votes (47.1%), while Christy Smith, in her third bid to take the seat, received 45,675 votes (37.4%). There were also four other Democrats and Republicans running for the seat in 2022. The Republican candidates combined for 61,469 votes (50.4%), while the Democrats combined for 60,646 votes (49.6%).                                                                             

County	Garcia	Garcia %	Smith	Smith %	Total
Los Angeles	104,624	53.24%	91,892	46.76%	196,516
Total	104,624	53.24%	91,892	46.76%	196,516
Margin	R +12,732	R +6.48%

When all the votes were counted, Garcia secured a larger-than-expected margin of victory of 6.5%. The seat was also the tipping point seat for control of Congress, with the win in California’s 27^th securing a Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Smith had underperformed the district’s Democratic registration advantage for the third time in a row, which allowed Garcia to win the district by a margin of 12,732 votes. The seat is likely a Democratic target in 2024, as their presidential candidate will almost certainly carry the district.

California Congressional District 41

41^st District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Riverside	167,429	36.15%	170,026	36.71%	125,669	463,124
Total	167,429	36.15%	170,026	36.71%	125,669	463,124
Margin			D +2,597	D +0.56%

California’s 41^st district is in the eastern portion of Riverside County and is a battleground district with a slight Democratic registration advantage (0.56%). The district has voted Republican for president in the past few election cycles, although by decreasing margins. Altogether, the district is very evenly divided among Republicans and Democrats, with the third-party votes able to decide the district overwhelmingly.

In the top-two primary, incumbent Republican Ken Calvert ran for re-election against Democratic Federal Prosecutor Will Rollins and three other candidates. Calvert took 72,700 votes (48.2%) to secure the first general election slot, while Rollins finished second with 45,923 votes (30.4%). The Republican candidates in the primary combined for 79,580 votes (52.8%), while the Democratic candidates combined for 69,406 votes (46.0%). A non-affiliated candidate took 1,862 votes (1.2%).

County	Calvert	Calvert %	Rollins	Rollins %	Total
Riverside	123,869	52.35%	112,769	47.65%	236,638
Total	123,869	52.35%	112,769	47.65%	236,638
Margin	R +11,100	R +4.7%

In the general election, Calvert was able to secure a 11,100 vote victory over Rollins in this battleground district. Rollins was an impressive candidate, but the statewide shift rightward in the Gubernatorial race saved Calvert from defeat. It should be noted that in an election such as 2024 with higher presidential level turnout, a Democrat might be able to defeat Calvert or run an extremely close race, although Calvert was able to survive in a battleground district in the 2008 Democratic wave election, so he may have been a strong candidate. In any event, this district starts off as a Democratic target in 2024.

California Congressional District 45

45^th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Los Angeles	11,418	22.05%	23,521	45.43%	16,836	51,775
Orange	129,831	33.55%	142,501	36.83%	114,627	386,959
Total	141,249	32.19%	166,022	37.84%	131,463	438,734
Margin			D +24,773	D +5.65%

The 45^th district is located primarily in Orange County, in which at the time of the election 386,959 voters resided. A far smaller portion of Los Angeles County is also included in the district. The district has a high percentage of Asian American voters in comparison to other districts in California, making it one of the few districts in the United States where Asian Americans constitute a plurality of voters. The district has a Democratic voter registration advantage of 5.65%, as it is a Democratic leaning district that Biden also won in the 2020 election.

In the top-two primary, incumbent Republican Michelle Steel ran for e-election, securing the top general election slot with 65,641 votes (48.2%), while U.S. Navy veteran and Democrat Jay Chen secured the second slot with 58,721 votes (43.1%). A second Republican, Long Pham, garnered 11,732 votes (8.6%), and a write-in candidate received six votes. The Republican candidates combined for 77,373 votes (56.8%).

County	Steel	Steel %	Chen	Chen %	Total
Los Angeles	9,598	42.25%	13,121	57.75%	22,719
Orange	104,362	53.60%	90,345	46.40%	194,707
Total	113,960	52.41%	103,466	47.59%	217,426
Margin	R +10,494	R +4.82%

In the 2022 election for the 45^th district, Steel won a narrow victory in this battleground district. She did this by running ahead of Chen in the Orange County-based portion of the district, while Chen ran ahead of Steel in the Los Angeles-based portion. Steel’s margin in Orange was enough to provide her with a 10,494-vote victory and a margin of 4.82%, a close race in this slightly Democratic-leaning district. This district will be a top Democratic target in 2024, and it remains to be seen whether Chen will run again.

California Congressional District 47

47^th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Orange	152,958	33.89%	160,636	35.59%	137,759	451,353
Total	152,958	33.89%	160,636	35.59%	137,759	451,353
Margin			D +7,678	D +1.70%

The 47^th district is based in Orange County, comprising the northern coastal region. The district is home to many seaside towns, as well as some inland areas, and is a battleground district by voter registration, as Democrats only have a 1.70% voter registration advantage. The district is very evenly divided between the two major parties, making political competition inevitable. The district also is a Biden won district, and as such, Democrats would be favored slightly.

In the top-two primary, Incumbent Democrat Katie Porter, a favorite among progressive voters in California, ran for re-election in this political battleground. She faced moderate Republican Scott Baugh, seen as an exceptional candidate by most Republicans in the district. There were also three other Republicans running in the district: Amy Phan West, Brian Burley, and Errol Webber. Porter secured the first general election slot with 86,742 votes (51.7%), while Baugh earned the second slot with 51,776 votes (30.9%). The Republican candidates combined for 81,019 votes (48.3%).

County	Baugh	Baugh %	Porter	Porter %	Total
Orange	128,261	48.28%	137,374	51.72%	265,635
Total	128,261	48.28%	137,374	51.72%	265,635
Margin			D +9,113	D +3.44%

When all the votes were finalized in the general election, it became apparent that Porter had won a very narrow victory over Baugh. Porter had secured a 9,113-vote margin (3.44%) in the battleground district, but Baugh had come close to winning overall. This district will see increased competition in future election cycles, as even though it is trending away from Republicans, it is a seat prone to down-ballot lag, an electoral phenomenon explained in many political science journals and articles.

California Congressional District 49

49^th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Orange	65,965	40.37%	50,755	31.06%	46,667	163,387
San Diego	90,320	29.53%	120,217	39.31%	95,318	305,855
Total	156,285	33.31%	170,972	36.44%	46,667	469,242
Margin			D +14,687	D +3.13%

The 49^th district is primarily located in northern San Diego County, with a sizable portion of coastal southern Orange County included. Republicans have a moderate voter registration edge in the Orange County based portion of the district, while Democrats have a slightly larger lead in the San Diego County portion. San Diego County is home to around 65.18% of the voters in the district, with Orange County filling out the rest.

In the top-two primary, incumbent Democrat Mike Levin ran for re-election against six other challengers (five Republicans and one Democrat). Levin secured the first general election slot with 92,211 votes (48.9%), while four Republicans contested the second general election slot: financial planner and former San Juan Capistrano mayor Brian Maryott, Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett, Oceanside City Councilman Christopher Rodriguez, and Josiah O’Neil, a sheriff’s deputy. Renee Taylor, a cyber expert, finished out the Republican candidates. Nadia Smalley, a private nurse, ran as a Democrat. Brian Maryott secured the second general election slot with 35,805 votes (19.0%) in a hard-fought four way race for the second slot. The Democratic candidates combined for 97,015 votes (51.4%), while the Republican candidates combined for 91,559 votes (48.6%).

County	Maryott	Maryott %	Levin	Levin %	Total
Orange	57,114	54.96%	46,807	45.04%	103,921
San Diego	81,080	43.17%	106,734	56.83%	187,814
Total	138,194	47.37%	153,541	52.63%	291,735
Margin			D +15,347	D +5.26%

In the general election, Levin won a narrow victory over Maryott, in large part due to gaining a significant advantage over Maryott in the San Diego County portion of the district. The Orange County portion of the district voted for Maryott by a margin of 10,307 votes, but this was not enough to offset Levin’s lead of 25,654 votes in the San Diego County portion. This seat is more Republican downballot, and it remains to be seen whether a Republican candidate can win it in the Trump and Biden era, as it is home to a large suburban population. It will remain a top 2024 target for Republicans in any event.