California’s Last Republican Victory: The 2006 Gubernatorial Election

The 2006 midterm elections, held after the successful re-election of President George W. Bush, saw turnover in federal and state races across the country. The election was a wave election in which Democrats regained control of both Houses of Congress, picked up gubernatorial offices, and flipped large numbers of state legislative seats. California, however, bucked the trend.

Incumbent Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican candidate who had won the replacement vote in 2003 when prior Governor Gray Davis was recalled over issues with the power grid, ran for re-election in this Democratic wave environment. This was the second-to-last gubernatorial election to be held without the top-two primary method, which was approved in 2010 during Governor Jerry Brown’s third run for office. Schwarzenegger’s challenger, the Democratic State Treasurer Phil Angelides, was the Democratic party nominee. Other candidates in the race were Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, American Independent candidate Edward Noonan, Libertarian candidate Art Olivier, and Peace & Freedom candidate Janice Jordan.

The Election

In the general election, Schwarzenegger won a resounding victory, likely due to his moderation on social and fiscal issues before the campaign. He managed to do this by performing exceptionally well with Whites and Asian-Americans. He also made an impressive showing among African-Americans, Latinos, and mixed-race Americans. It should be noted that State Treasurer Angelides won African-American Californians overwhelmingly and Latinos by around an 11-point margin, but this was not enough to stave off a Schwarzenegger landslide.

Jefferson

This article will look at the election through the Six Californias framework. The first is the proposed state of Jefferson, which is sparsely populated, especially back at the time of 2006, and has been one of the most Republican-leaning regions in California, even as it has trended Democratic. In the 2006 gubernatorial election, the population bases were Butte, Humboldt, Mendocino, and Shasta counties, the same as present day.

County	Schwarzenegger	Angelides	Other	Total	Schwarzenegger%	Angelides%
Butte	45,591	18,672	5,005	69,268	65.82%	26.96%
Colusa	3,665	1,104	200	4,969	73.76%	22.22%
Del Norte	3,639	2,531	464	6,634	54.85%	38.15%
Glenn	5,775	1,421	353	7,549	76.50%	18.82%
Humboldt	23,282	20,070	4,934	48,286	48.22%	41.56%
Lake	10,930	7,031	1,468	19,429	56.26%	36.19%
Lassen	5,665	2,353	562	8,580	66.03%	27.42%
Mendocino	14,002	13,790	3,042	30,834	45.41%	44.72%
Modoc	2,829	723	210	3,762	75.20%	19.22%
Plumas	6,160	2,194	506	8,860	69.53%	24.76%
Shasta	43,436	12,434	2,893	58,763	73.92%	21.16%
Siskiyou	10,916	4,615	1,100	16,631	65.64%	27.75%
Tehama	13,442	3,666	897	18,005	74.66%	20.36%
Trinity	3,819	1,614	478	5,911	64.61%	27.31%
Total	193,151	92,218	22,112	307,481	62.82%	29.99%
Margin	R +100,933				R +32.83%

Schwarzenegger carried all the counties located in the region of Jefferson. The counties Angelides performed best in were reliably-Democratic Humboldt and Mendocino, where he received 41.6% and 44.7%, respectively; Schwarzenegger won both counties with less than 50% of the vote.

Schwarzenegger’s strongest county, by contrast, was Glenn County, where he received 76.5% of the vote. He also performed well in population centers like Butte (65.8%) and Shasta (73.9%). Overall, Schwarzenegger’s strong electoral margins allowed him to carry the region of Jefferson by a margin of 100,933 votes and by 32.83%.

North California

The next region is North California. At the time of the 2006 election, it was a more political competitive region that the California Republican Party could do well in. It had not trended quite as Democratic as it is today. In the 2006 California Gubernatorial Election, the population centers were Marin, Placer, Sacramento, Solano, and Sonoma counties.

County	Schwarzenegger	Angelides	Other	Total	Schwarzenegger	Angelides%
Amador	10,755	3,354	5,001	19,110	56.28%	17.55%
El Dorado	49,771	14,535	3,531	67,837	73.37%	21.43%
Marin	48,439	50,441	6,863	105,743	45.81%	47.70%
Napa	23,187	16,504	2,797	42,488	54.57%	38.84%
Nevada	28,570	11,833	2,865	43,268	66.03%	27.35%
Placer	91,972	26,723	4,957	123,652	74.38%	21.61%
Sacramento	218,889	123,685	19,521	362,095	60.45%	34.16%
Sierra	1,131	353	118	1,602	70.60%	22.03%
Solano	55,130	43,501	5,095	103,726	53.15%	41.94%
Sonoma	81,608	77,392	14,514	173,514	47.03%	44.60%
Sutter	17,393	5,487	1,033	23,913	72.73%	22.95%
Yolo	29,073	21,733	3,652	54,458	53.39%	39.91%
Yuba	10,122	2,973	843	13,938	72.62%	21.33%
Total	666,040	398,514	70,790	1,135,344	58.66%	35.10%
Margin	R +267,526				R +23.56%

Schwarzenegger won all the counties in North California except for the liberal stronghold of Marin County, which he lost to Angelides by 1.9%. All of the interior counties in the region were carried by Schwarzenegger by wide margins, including the future Democratic base of Sacramento County.

Schwarzenegger even won Sonoma County by a 2.43% margin, which was surprising at the time because it was trending Democratic at that time; John Kerry had carried it by a margin of 36.3%. Overall, Schwarzenegger carried the region of North California by 267,526 votes and 23.56% of the vote.

Silicon Valley

The third region is Silicon Valley, which at the time of the 2006 Gubernatorial Election was an engine of rapid growth in the technological sector before the Great Recession struck in 2008. Although the region was not quite as Democratic as today, it was still a heavily-Democratic part of the state. The population centers in the region of Silicon Valley at this time were Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara.

County	Schwarzenegger	Angelides	Other	Total	Schwarzenegger%	Angelides%
Alameda	148,322	229,217	27,839	405,378	36.59%	56.54%
Contra Costa	158,565	128,578	15,370	302,513	52.42%	42.50%
Monterey	46,882	35,769	5,255	87,906	53.33%	40.69%
San Benito	8,208	5,400	771	14,379	57.08%	37.55%
San Francisco	72,722	153,335	18,411	244,468	29.75%	62.72%
San Mateo	96,478	97,092	11,194	204,764	47.12%	47.42%
Santa Clara	225,132	185,037	21,486	431,655	52.16%	42.87%
Santa Cruz	37,866	43,619	8,704	90,189	41.99%	48.36%
Total	794,175	878,047	109,030	1,781,252	44.59%	49.29%
Margin		D +83,872				D +4.71%

When all the votes were counted in the region of Silicon Valley in 2006, it became apparent that State Treasurer Angelides had won a very narrow victory within that region; he carried it by a margin of 83,872 votes, or 4.71%. All of the counties on the upper Northern California coast (San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Cruz) were carried by Angelides, along with Alameda County.

Schwarzenegger, on the other hand, carried the Bay Area suburban enclave of Contra Costa, the San Jose-centered Santa Clara, and the two southernmost counties (Monterey and San Benito).

Central California

The fourth region is Central California, which at the time of the election was a relatively sparsely populated and Republican-leaning region. It includes the heavily Hispanic Central Valley, which acts as a moderate swing/battleground region, along with several counties in ski country. The population centers in 2006 were Fresno, Kern, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus Counties. The most Republican-leaning portion of the state, Schwarzenegger carried it by over a 2:1 margin.

County	Schwarzenegger	Angelides	Other	Total	Schwarzenegger%	Angelides%
Alpine	295	218	31	544	54.23%	40.07%
Calaveras	12,691	4,268	1,057	18,016	70.44%	23.69%
Fresno	116,534	53,605	6,224	176,363	66.08%	30.39%
Inyo	4,180	1,892	420	6,492	64.39%	29.14%
Kern	108,253	35,512	6,457	150,222	72.06%	23.64%
Kings	15,683	6,344	877	22,904	68.47%	27.70%
Madera	21,416	7,473	1,224	30,113	71.12%	24.82%
Mariposa	5,074	1,985	534	7,593	66.82%	26.14%
Merced	26,231	14,027	1,701	41,959	62.52%	33.43%
Mono	2,315	1,176	253	3,744	61.83%	31.41%
San Joaquin	83,952	49,868	5,348	139,168	60.32%	35.83%
Stanislaus	67,427	31,981	4,464	103,872	64.91%	30.79%
Tulare	48,607	17,571	2,552	68,730	70.72%	25.57%
Tuolumne	14,836	5,105	1,200	21,141	70.18%	24.15%
Total	527,494	231,025	32,342	790,861	66.70%	29.21%
Margin	R +296,469				R +37.49%

Schwarzenegger carried nearly all the counties in the Central California region with at least 60% of the vote. This would be unthinkable in today’s era due to partisan polarization. This was Schwarzenegger’s best performing region by margin of percentage; he won every county at least 10%. His strongest performance came in the agricultural center of Kern County, where he received over 72% of the vote.

Angelides’s best performing county was Alpine, a liberal ski county that ranks among the least populated in the country. He pulled 40.1% of the vote there. In only one other county, San Joaquin, did he even crack 35% of the vote. Overall, Schwarzenegger carried the Central California region by 296,469 votes, a margin of 37.49%.

West California

The next region that this article will explore is the region of West California, a densely populated coastal region that includes the metropolitan area of Los Angeles. The region in 2006 was known for being a major port city, as well as an economic powerhouse. The region includes Los Angeles, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, which are all heavily Democratic in today’s polarized era, with the exception of San Luis Obispo, which is open to two-party competition with the right candidate. The population centers of the region are Los Angeles County, with its enormous metropolitan population, Santa Barbara County, with its surfing areas, and Ventura County, with its seaside towns.

County	Schwarzenegger	Angelides	Other	Total	Schwarzenegger%	Angelides%
Los Angeles	907,919	967,149	96,008	1,971,076	46.06%	49.07%
San Luis Obispo	61,842	30,568	4,882	97,292	63.56%	31.42%
Santa Barbara	73,677	42,880	6,224	122,781	60.01%	34.92%
Ventura	134,862	75,790	10,313	220,965	61.03%	34.30%
Total	1,178,300	1,116,387	117,427	2,412,114	48.85%	46.28%
Margin	R +61,913				R +2.57%

Despite narrowly losing Los Angeles County, Schwarzenegger was able to narrowly win West California by carrying the three other counties by solid margins. Although the vast majority of votes were cast in Los Angeles County, Schwarzenegger received over 60% of the vote in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties. This was enough to secure a 61,913 vote win – a 2.57% margin of victory.

South California

The final region that this article will explore is the region of South California. The region of South California at the time was a military and economic center, with many military bases in the counties within the region. South California includes Imperial, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties, which have all trended Democratic since this election. In fact, San Diego is the most Democratic in today’s era, but back in 2006, it was more Republican leaning. The population centers of the region are Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. This was Schwarzenegger’s second-best region by margin of percentage.

County	Schwarzenegger	Angelides	Other	Total	Schwarzenegger%	Angelides%
Imperial	10,363	10,024	1,787	22,174	46.73%	45.21%
Orange	507,413	185,388	35,230	728,031	69.70%	25.46%
Riverside	251,962	115,803	16,979	384,744	65.49%	30.10%
San Bernardino	212,200	114,388	17,713	344,301	61.63%	33.22%
San Diego	509,059	234,938	33,308	777,305	65.49%	30.22%
Total	1,490,997	660,541	105,017	2,256,555	66.07%	29.27%
Margin	R +830,456				R +36.80%

Schwarzenegger won every county in this region, including majority-Hispanic Imperial County. He performed exceptionally well in each of the other counties, pulling over 60% of the vote in each. His strongest performance came in suburban Orange County, where we won nearly 70% of the vote.

Overall, Schwarzenegger carried South California by 830,456 votes – a 36.8% margin, his second-strongest in the state.

Outcome

When all the votes were counted, Governor Schwarzenegger had won a resounding 1.47 million vote landslide, beating his Democratic rival 55.9%-39.0%. This enabled him to sweep five of the six regions of California, winning in all but the bluest strongholds of Silicon Valley and Los Angeles County.

The win in the 2006 California Gubernatorial race, while impressive, is unlikely to be repeated anytime soon. It is a footnote to another time, when a recall replacement Governor who starts off unpopular can become more popular over time and summon a large mandate in a state as ideologically opposed to his party as California. Republicans have not won a statewide race in California since 2006.

It should also be noted that California was not as Democratic as it is today in 2006; George W. Bush only lost the state by 10 percentage points, compared to the 29-point loss Donald Trump experienced in 2020. It took some time for the Democratic trend to manifest itself in the manner in which political observers see the state today.