The 2022 California Gubernatorial Race: A Break from Normal?

In the last two decades or so, California Democrats have managed to improve their margins in the California Governor’s races from the 51.1% margin that they garnered in the 1996 Presidential Race. California Democrats can now, barring some flawed candidate, routinely expect to get about 60.2-62% of the vote in California’s Gubernatorial races, which has helped shift California from a reliably (but not strong) Republican presidential state from 1968-1998. This shift has helped the California Democratic Party dominate the state’s down-ballot races, which this author will save for future installments. However, the ideological diversity of the various California governors in the last few decades has been a fascinating study in how members of the same party can hold very different views in certain ideological dimensions.

Governor Gavin Newsom, who took office after successfully seeking the promotion from Lieutenant Governor to Governor in 2018, a good election year for Democrats nationwide as they captured the House of Representatives and flipped several legislative and congressional seats in California, successfully survived a recall attempt in 2021. He sought reelection in 2022, facing a Republican State Senator named Brian Dahle, who represented the 1^st State Senate District of California after a special election occurring after Ted Gaines, the prior officeholder of the 1^st Senate District, became a member of the California State Board of Equalization.

Governor Newsom, who campaigned on several progressive political positions on social policy, stood a stark contrast with Dahle, who campaigned on more conservative political positions mainly centered on economic policy. The 2022 Governor’s race reflected a series of issues that were being debated around the country, such as abortion, election denialism, inflation, among others.

When the polls closed, the results started to arrive, and while Governor Newsom was projected to win election early in the night, the margin was the main factor that most political junkies were following, as it would possibly foretell the down ballot effects. However, California allows ballots postmarked by election day to arrive after election day, so it was a couple of weeks after election day before the results were finalized.

The Election Results of the 2022 Gubernatorial Race

When the results were completed, it became apparent that Governor Newsom’s winning margin had slipped from a 61.9-38.1% victory to a 59.2%-40.8% victory. Governor Newsom lost counties he had carried in 2018, such as Orange (a metropolitan county that includes Anaheim and is located in Southern California), as well as losing several counties he had lost by small margins in 2018 such as Stanislaus and Fresno counties. It should be noted that Governor Newsom underwent a lot of campaigning outside of the state, such as campaigning against Governor Ron DeSantis (R-Florida) and Governor Greg Abbott (R-Texas), so he did not campaign in California for much of the election cycle. California also saw a decrease in the amount of Democratic and Republican raw votes, so voter turnout was down compared to the 2018 midterm election. This article will be looking at the election results by using the Six California’s political regions. For those of whom who do not remember the Six California’s ballot proposition, it was a proposal to split California into six states, each of which possessed varying degrees of political ideologies.

Jefferson

The first political region is the proposed state of Jefferson, a collection of the northernmost California counties above the Bay Area metropolitan area. These counties lean mostly Republican in political contests across the state. This is a sparsely populated region compared to other areas of the state, where the largest number of votes cast in the 2022 gubernatorial race came from Butte County:

County	Dahle (R)	Newsom (D)	Total #	Dahle %	Newsom %
Butte	40,939	31,502	72,441	56.51%	43.49%
Colusa	4,009	1,553	5,562	72.08%	27.92%
Del Norte	5,111	3,264	8,375	61.03%	38.97%
Glenn	6,000	1,930	7,930	75.66%	24.34%
Humboldt	18,257	29,541	47,798	38.20%	61.80%
Lake	10,360	9,771	20,131	51.46%	48.54%
Lassen	7,726	1,444	9,170	84.25%	15.75%
Mendocino	11,363	19,031	30,394	37.39%	62.61%
Modoc	2,725	687	3,412	79.87%	20.13%
Plumas	5,550	3,083	8,633	64.29%	35.71%
Shasta	49,913	18,607	68,520	72.84%	27.16%
Siskiyou	11,397	6,326	17,723	64.31%	35.69%
Tehama	15,607	5,024	20,631	75.65%	24.35%
Trinity	2,667	1,860	4,527	58.91%	41.09%
Total	191,624	133,623	325,247	58.92%	41.08%
Margin	R +58,001			R +17.83%

In the proposed state of Jefferson, the counties along and near the coast tend to lean Democratic, except for Del Norte, which Dahle won by 22.05% in 2022. It should be noted that quite a bit of this political region overlaps with Dahle’s State Senate district.

The dominant political party in this region is the Republican Party, as a lot of these counties are mostly rural in nature. However, Butte (Chico), Humboldt (Eureka), and Shasta (Redding), which have slightly larger cities.

North California

Moving on, the proposed state of North California, comprised of an assortment of counties containing the state capital of Sacramento, leaned Democratic in the 2022 gubernatorial election. The proposed state of North California is composed of the counties of Amador, El Dorado, Marin, Napa, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sierra, Solano, Sonoma, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba. This is a much more populated region than the proposed state of Jefferson, but not nearly as populated as some of the other political regions in the state.

County	Dahle (R)	Newsom (D)	Total #	Dahle %	Newsom %
Amador	12,628	6,027	18,655	67.69%	32.31%
El Dorado	54,137	34,534	88,671	61.05%	38.95%
Marin	23,775	95,289	119,064	19.97%	80.03%
Napa	17,671	32,437	50,108	35.27%	64.73%
Nevada	24,082	26,655	50,737	47.46%	52.54%
Placer	108,450	73,619	182,069	59.57%	40.43%
Sacramento	202,933	274,680	477,613	42.49%	57.51%
Sierra	1,014	529	1,543	65.72%	34.28%
Solano	52,850	77,769	130,619	40.46%	59.54%
Sonoma	57,413	140,041	197,454	29.08%	70.92%
Sutter	19,024	9,082	28,106	67.69%	32.31%
Yolo	22,807	44,328	67,135	33.97%	66.03%
Yuba	13,097	6,534	19,631	66.72%	33.28%
Total	609,881	821,524	1,431,405	42.61%	57.39%
Margin		D +211,643			D +14.79%

In the proposed state of North California, Governor Newsom won the counties nearest the coast, which should be no surprise to anyone who follows California politics. Newsom performed best by percentage in Marin (80%) and Sonoma (70.9%), the two westernmost counties. These two counties cast 119,064 and 197,454 raw votes in the 2022 gubernatorial race, respectively. Newsom also won Napa, Nevada, Solano, Sacramento, and Yolo counties. Dahle carried most of the counties closer to the Nevada border, with the exception of Nevada County. Overall, Newsom carried this region by 14.8%, a margin of 211,643 votes.

Silicon Valley

The next region on this list is the region of Silicon Valley, also known as the Bay Area Metro and outlying areas. This region consists of Alameda, Contra Costa, Monterey, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz counties. This area is densely populated and is the major population center of northern California. The region is overwhelmingly Democratic, and a typical Democratic candidate would be expected to carry it by extremely large margins.

County	Dahle (R)	Newsom (D)	Total #	Dahle %	Newsom %
Alameda	100,923	387,046	487,969	20.68%	79.32%
Contra Costa	123,132	265,371	388,503	31.69%	68.31%
Monterey	36,867	65,262	102,129	36.10%	63.90%
San Benito	9,150	10,428	19,578	46.74%	53.26%
San Francisco	44,064	257,402	301,466	14.62%	85.38%
San Mateo	61,918	185,599	247,517	25.02%	74.98%
Santa Clara	162,518	379,377	541,895	29.99%	70.01%
Santa Cruz	25,052	79,117	104,169	24.05%	75.95%
Total	563,624	1,629,602	2,193,226	25.70%	74.30%
Margin		D +1,065,978			D +48.60%

In his re-election campaign, Governor Newsom won all of the counties in the proposed state of Silicon Valley. This should come as no surprise; a Democrat would be expected to win this region, and this is also Newsom’s home region. Newsom’s best performance came in San Francisco, where he won 85.4% of the vote; Newsom formerly served as the Mayor of San Francisco. His worst performance came in San Benito County, which he won by 6.5%. Overall, Newsom won the Silicon Valley region 48.6%, a a margin of 1,065,978 votes.

Central California

The fourth region is the proposed state of Central California. This region includes the more moderate Central Valley, which acts as a political swing region within the state and is majority Latino. Central California is a predominantly agricultural area, with many miles of farmland in the middle of the state. Central California is composed of the counties of Alpine, Calaveras, Fresno, Inyo, Kern, Kings, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, Mono, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Tulare, and Tuolumne. The area is comapartively sparsely populated, although not as much as Jefferson.

ounty Name	Dahle (R)	Newsom (D)	Total #	Dahle %	Newsom %
Alpine	256	363	619	41.36%	58.64%
Calaveras	14,137	7,103	21,240	66.56%	33.44%
Fresno	120,668	98,417	219,085	55.08%	44.92%
Inyo	4,095	3,382	7,477	54.77%	45.23%
Kern	119,002	69,701	188,703	63.06%	36.94%
Kings	17,523	9,389	26,912	65.11%	34.89%
Madera	23,678	13,283	36,961	64.06%	35.94%
Mariposa	4,896	2,944	7,840	62.45%	37.55%
Merced	30,073	25,200	55,273	54.41%	45.59%
Mono	2,076	2,493	4,569	45.44%	54.56%
San Joaquin	91,827	85,498	177,325	51.78%	48.22%
Stanislaus	75,656	55,311	130,967	57.77%	42.23%
Tulare	58,053	33,273	91,326	63.57%	36.43%
Tuolumne	14,759	8,471	23,230	63.53%	36.47%
Total	576,699	414,828	991,527	58.16%	41.84%
Margin	R +161,871			R +16.33%

In his challenge to Governor Newsom’s re-election campaign, Dahle managed to carry all of the counties in the region except for Alpine and Mono counties in ski country. Compared to 2018, Newsom lost two counties he had previously carried: San Joaquin and Merced. Newsom also lost Fresno County by over 10%.

While Democrats haven’t carried Fresno County in a gubernatorial race since 1978, it has voted for a Democrat in every presidential election since 2004. This may speak to the fact that Governor Newsom campaigned extensively out of the state and was not visible in the region, or it may evoke a question of whether he is a good fit for Central California. Overall, Dahle won the region with a margin of 161,871 votes and 16.33% of the vote.

West California

The fifth region is the proposed state of West California. West California is the most populated region of the state and provides a reliable voter base for Democratic candidates. The most major population center of the region is Los Angeles County, a very diverse area in terms of racial and ethnic demographics. Western California is composed of Los Angeles, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties. A fairly common thread with this region is all of the counties are located on the Southern Coast.

County	Dahle (R)	Newsom (D)	Total #	Dahle %	Newsom %
Los Angeles	769,174	1,620,053	2,389,227	32.19%	67.81%
San Luis Obispo	58,464	61,166	119,630	48.87%	51.13%
Santa Barbara	54,726	80,648	135,374	40.43%	59.57%
Ventura	127,709	153,226	280,935	45.46%	54.54%
Total	1,010,073	1,915,093	2,925,166	34.53%	65.47%
Margin		D +905,020			D +30.94%

In his re-election campaign, Newsom carried all four counties in the West California region. Los Angeles County, by far the largest population center, cast 2,389,227 votes, whereas San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties cast 119,630, 135,374, and 280,935 votes respectively. San Luis Obispo County is more Republican down-ballot and always has a closer margin in most contests. Overall, the outcome for West California was never much in doubt, as it is heavily Democratic; Newsom won it with a margin of 905,020 votes and 30.94% of the vote.

South California

The final region is South California, which is composed of Imperial, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego counties. The South California region is the most competitive region of the State of California, with Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino all finishing with closer margins than the statewide margin.

County	Dahle (R)	Newsom (D)	Total #	Dahle %	Newsom %
Imperial	13,158	16,711	29,869	44.05%	55.95%
Orange	492,734	464,206	956,940	51.49%	48.51%
Riverside	310,901	285,000	595,901	52.17%	47.83%
San Bernardino	239,109	215,391	454,500	52.61%	47.39%
San Diego	455,107	574,121	1,029,228	44.22%	55.78%
Total	1,511,009	1,555,429	3,066,438	49.28%	50.72%
Margin		D +44,420			D +1.45%

In his re-election campaign, Newsom carried San Diego and Imperial counties, while Dahle carried Riverside, Orange, and San Bernardino. In 2018, Newsom carried every county in this region except Riverside. Riverside, Orange, and San Bernardino tend to vote Democratic in presidential and federal elections in the recent decade, although they are more of a set of swing counties downballot. Orange County, in particular, was a county that voted Republican consistently over the decades, but has since swung to the left. Overall, Newsom won the Southern California region by a margin of 44,420 votes and 1.45% – the closest margin of any region.

The Downballot Effect

I’ll examine downballot results in another article, but the effects of the 2022 Gubernatorial election downballot were pronounced. The Republican Party held onto all their congressional seats in California and flipped a seat in the Central Valley. On the other hand, Democratic Party performed as expected in the State Assembly races while winning most State Senate races. Dahle’s improvement of around 2% over 2018 candidate John Cox might have produced coattails enough to prevent Democratic gains in the large number of Biden-won, Republican-represented House seats.

Outlook for the 2026 California Gubernatorial Election

Newsom will be term-limited in 2026, so the election will be an open-seat race. It remains to be seen who the candidates will be, although if history is any past guide, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis will seek a promotion from Lieutenant Governor to Governor. It is to be determined what candidate the California Republican Party will put up to face the Democratic nominee, but one thing is for sure: the Democratic nominee will be favored, barring a political earthquake. Republicans might also be shut out of the election if they splinter the vote amongst themselves due to the California top-two primary system, in which the top two vote getters advance to the general election after a primary election where all candidates run on the same ballot.