May Ratings Update: Florida, New York, and more

As we come ever closer to the end of May, that means we are only about 5 months away from the 2022 Midterms. Feels like its gone by fast doesn’t it? With that though, it means it is time for another ratings update. We don’t have any changes to our Senate ratings for the past month, but we do have several changes in our House ratings.

House Changes

We have 7 changes to our House Ratings this month, with 6 in favor of Republicans and 1 in favor of Democrats.

• CA-13: Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
• GA-02: Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
• IL-13: Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
• MI-04: Likely Republican to Safe Republican
• NV-03: Leans Democratic to Tossup
• OH-09: Leans Republican to Tossup
• VA-10: Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic

I’ll start with the one change favoring Democrats in our House ratings, that being in the new Ohio 9th. Republicans ended up nominating JR Majewski here, an outsider who quickly became known on social media as the guy who wore a Q-Anon shirt on a Fox News appearance. That possible Q connection is the issue here. Now, it’s possible Majewski turns into another Ed Durr in style here, and he may end up having no real baggage. But it has been very rare to find someone Q-Anon adjacent who then doesn’t have other issues laying around. This is only a Trump+3 district with an incumbent in Marcy Kaptur who has repeatedly outrun other Democrats in Toledo and the other areas to the East within the new district.

Republican Changes

The other six changes all favor Republicans. In Michigan, while the GOP struggles there have been well documented, we feel as though Democrats chances in the new 4th, anchored by Kalamazoo, is out of reach this cycle. In California’s 13th, a 60.7% Hispanic VAP seat, the continued downtrend in polling numbers with Hispanics have us moving this Central Valley-based seat to Leans Democratic. For Georgia’s 2nd, good fundraising numbers from the Republican challenger have us taking a closer look at. Then, in Illinois 13th, we’ve been told that internals here have this race “closer than expected” and that the heavily gerrymandered seat is on the board this year for Republicans.

The continued worsening environment for Democrats is our key reason behind moving Nevada’s 3rd to Tossup. The third is the closest of the three Democratic districts in Nevada, and would be the first to go in this environment. Finally, we’re bringing Virginia’s 10th district on the board. While we don’t see Republicans ultimately being successful here, we believe the chance of a victory here for them is closer to 5% than 1%. Add on an intriguing GOP nominee in Hung Cao, and you have a race that could get interesting.

Florida and New York updates

Along with these changes, we have changes to our New York ratings and the addition of Florida. In Florida, the new GOP gerrymander sees three seats currently held by Democrats as Likely Republican seats. Those seats would be the new FL-04, FL-07, and FL-13. That, plus the gained seat being a GOP-drawn seat, would give Republicans four of the five seats they need to take the House majority. We also have current Republican seats in FL-15, FL-27 and FL-28 rated Likely Republican. There is also one Likely Democratic seat in FL-21, being vacated by Ted Deutch. The remaining seats are Safe for the party that currently holds them.

In New York, the new special master map sees Republicans make considerable improvements over the first map. First, both the unpacked NY-01 and NY-02 are rated as Likely Republican. The new NY-03 is also on the board now, as we rate it as Leans Democratic. Nicole Malliotakis’s ungerrymandered 11th district now goes off the board as we move the seat Safe Republican. Upstate, the new lines there have us rating the new NY-17 as Likely Democratic. Both NY-18 and 19 are rated as Tossups now under new lines and without incumbents. The new NY-22 also goes to Tossup; it is only Biden +7, right in the range of competitiveness. Every other seat is considered safe for the party that currently holds the seat.