The 2022 election cycle is upon us, and with that comes a fresh cycle of Senate elections. We currently have six states in our competitive column, and the field appears to be somewhat set in terms of competitive states (although some outlets, like our friends at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, are keeping an eye on Washington’s Senate race as a potential sleeper).
However, the 2022 cycle isn’t the most important upcoming Senate cycle. That honor goes to the 2024 cycle, which could potentially reshape American politics for years to come. Why? Because it’s perhaps the last chance in the near future for either party to achieve the elusive supermajority needed to pass bills over the filibuster.
2024: A Brutal Map for Democrats
| State | Incumbent | 2020 Presidential | Last Senate Result |
| Wyoming | John Barrasso (R) | R+43.4% | R+36.9% |
| West Virginia | Joe Manchin (D) | R+38.9% | D+3.3% |
| North Dakota | Kevin Cramer (R) | R+33.4% | R+10.8% (flip) |
| Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn (R) | R+23.2% | R+10.8% |
| Utah | Mitt Romney (R) | R+20.5% | R+31.7% |
| Nebraska | Deb Fischer (R) | R+19.1% | R+19.1% |
| Mississippi | Roger Wicker (R) | R+16.6% | R+19% |
| Montana | Jon Tester (D) | R+16.4% | D+3.5% |
| Indiana | Mike Braun (R) | R+16.1% | R+6% (flip) |
| Missouri | Josh Hawley (R) | R+15.4% | R+5.8% (flip) |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | R+8.0% | D+6.8% |
| Texas | Ted Cruz (R) | R+5.6% | R+2.6% |
| Florida | Rick Scott (R) | R+3.4% | R+0.1% (flip) |
| Arizona | Krysten Sinema (D) | D+0.3% | D+2.4% (flip) |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin (D) | D+0.6% | D+10.9% |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | D+1.2% | D+13.1% |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen (D) | D+2.4% | D+5% (flip) |
| Michigan | Debbie Stabenow (D) | D+2.8% | D+6.5% |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar (D) | D+7.1% | D+24.1% |
| Maine | Angus King (I-D) | D+9.1% | I+19.1% |
| Virginia | Tim Kaine (D) | D+10.1% | D+16% |
| New Mexico | Martin Heinrich (D) | D+10.8% | D+23.6% |
| New Jersey | Bob Menendez (D) | D+15.9% | D+11.2% |
| Washington | Maria Cantrell (D) | D+19.2% | D+16.8% |
| Delaware | Tom Carper (D) | D+19% | D+22.2% |
| Connecticut | Chris Murphy (D) | D+20.1% | D+20.1% |
| Rhode Island | Sheldon Whitehouse (D) | D+20.8% | D+23.1% |
| New York | Kirsten Gillibrand (D) | D+23.1% | D+34% |
| California | Dianne Feinstein (D) | D+29.2% | Feinsten+8.4% |
| Hawaii | Mazie Hirono (D) | D+29.5% | D+42.3% |
| Maryland | Ben Cardin (D) | D+33.2% | D+34.6% |
| Massachusetts | Elizabeth Warren (D) | D+33.5% | D+24.1% |
| Vermont | Bernie Sanders (I-D) | D+35.4% | I+39.9% |
To say the 2024 map is harsh for Democrats is an understatement. Of the 33 seats that are up, only 10 are held by Republicans. Of those, only two states are potential Democratic targets – Florida and Texas, both of which voted for Donald Trump in 2020 by small but respectable margins. None of the other Republican-held states are likely to be even competitive, let alone flip, as all of them voted for Trump by at least 15 percentage points.
Democrats, meanwhile, are defending 23 seats. Three of them (Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia) voted for Trump by margins of 16.4%, 8%, and 38.9%, respectively. All three incumbents have shown a strong history of cross-ticket support, but at minimum each seat will likely start as a Tossup at the very least. Even this might be too charitable; in the last two Presidential elections, only one state – Maine – has split its ticket at the Presidential and Senate levels.
Another five Democratic-held states (Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan) are likely to be highly competitive, each having voted for Joe Biden by under 3% in 2020, and all but Nevada having backed Trump in 2016. Another four states (Minnesota, Maine, Virginia, and New Mexico) could be potentially competitive, but in the modern era it would be unlikely for these “stretch” states to flip without also flipping at the Presidential level.
The Math
In short: Republicans start the 2024 cycle with excellent chances at flipping three Senate seats in deep red states, and have between five and nine blue state targets as well – all while only having to defend two seats of their own. This means it is virtually impossible that Republicans lose seats in 2024. In fact, it’s likely not a matter of if Republicans gain seats, but how many they gain. So let’s narrow the field down to the most competitive states:
| State | Incumbent | 2020 Presidential | Last Senate Result |
| West Virginia | Joe Manchin (D) | R+38.9% | D+3.3% |
| Montana | Jon Tester (D) | R+16.4% | D+3.5% |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | R+8.0% | D+6.8% |
| Texas | Ted Cruz (R) | R+5.6% | R+2.6% |
| Florida | Rick Scott (R) | R+3.4% | R+0.1% (flip) |
| Arizona | Krysten Sinema (D) | D+0.3% | D+2.4% (flip) |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin (D) | D+0.6% | D+10.9% |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | D+1.2% | D+13.1% |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen (D) | D+2.4% | D+5% (flip) |
| Michigan | Debbie Stabenow (D) | D+2.8% | D+6.5% |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar (D) | D+7.1% | D+24.1% |
| Maine | Angus King (I-D) | D+9.1% | I+19.1% |
| Virginia | Tim Kaine (D) | D+10.1% | D+16% |
| New Mexico | Martin Heinrich (D) | D+10.8% | D+23.6% |
This creates a battleground map of, at most, 14 states, which further shows the precariousness of the Democratic position. Like in 2016, a “blue wall” of sorts is apparent here, and like in 2016, a break would likely not just be a breach, but a total collapse. At the Presidential level, a Democratic victory along the lines Joe Biden had in 2020 should be sufficient to hold most, if not all, of these states; a more narrow popular vote like in 2016 could still see some of these states hold. However, even a narrow Republican popular vote victory nationwide would almost certainly lead to Republicans flipping all five, and a stronger margin could lead to the remaining four states (Minnesota, Maine, Virginia, and New Mexico) teetering towards that point as well.
In other words: as long as Democrats hold the Presidency in 2024, most of these states should be fine, limiting Republican gains to the three Trump states. However, a Republican victory could lead to the dam breaking, potentially creating up to nine more Republican flips. It should be noted that this scenario would be highly unlikely; even in wave years like 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018, a clean sweep of competitive states hasn’t happened.
Candidate Quality
That being said, Democrats have an ace up their sleeve. Many of the states up in 2024 have strong, entrenched Democratic incumbents with a history of outperforming the top of the ticket. In Pennsylvania, Bob Casey Jr. has romped to three landslide victories. In Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar’s weakest victory was her 20-point win in 2006. In Maine, Democratic-aligned independent Angus King has won two landslide victories in two attempts.
These strong candidates don’t even account for the strong Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, all of whom have withstood hostile political trends. Even a single one of them holding on could be disastrous for Republican hopes of retaking the Senate or expanding their majority.
What to Expect
Much of how 2024 plays out will depend on 2022’s results, of course. Republicans only have four real targets this cycle (Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada) and also have to defend two seats in the Biden-won states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as an open seat in competitive but Republican-leaning North Carolina. The cycle could result in anything from a Republican net loss of two seats to a gain of four. To help visualize what this means, I’ve created this table:
| 2022 net | GOP Seats | Gain Needed | Path of Least Resistance | Biden States Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | 48 | 12 | WV, MT, OH, AZ, WI, PA, NV, MI, MN, ME, VA, NM | 9/9 |
| -1 | 49 | 11 | WV, MT, OH, AZ, WI, PA, NV, MI, MN, ME, VA | 8/9 |
| 0 | 50 | 10 | WV, MT, OH, AZ, WI, PA, NV, MI, MN, ME | 7/9 |
| +1 | 51 | 9 | WV, MT, OH, AZ, WI, PA, NV, MI, MN | 6/9 |
| +2 | 52 | 8 | WV, MT, OH, AZ, WI, PA, NV, MI | 5/9 |
| +3 | 53 | 7 | WV, MT, OH, AZ, WI, PA, NV | 4/9 |
| +4 | 54 | 6 | WV, MT, OH, AZ, WI, PA | 3/9 |
The path of least resistance is the group of states Republicans need to flip that would theoretically require the least amount of swing. If Republicans manage to net four seats in 2022, for example, they would only need to flip six states in 2024, the most Democratic of which, Pennsylvania, only went to Biden by 1.2%. Moreover, they would only need to flip three of the nine potentially competitive Biden-won states.
Conclusion
The path to a supermajority for Republicans should be clear now: if Republicans can net between two and four seats in 2022, they have a clear path to a supermajority in 2024. This path becomes even clearer in the event of a Republican presidential victory, especially one where Republicans win a majority of the popular vote.
On the other hand, while this path is clear, it’s not easy by any stretch of the imagination. Even with a net of four seats, the path of least resistance would require Republicans to unseat the popular Bob Casey Jr. – no easy feat. Strong incumbency is no doubt the strongest factor Democrats have in their favor.
But even the possibility of a supermajority should be concerning to Democrats, and underscores just how vital the 2022 cycle might be to the future of the country. Even a Republican majority of 55 or 56 seats would be one of the strongest in recent memory.
