Presidential Ratings Changes – Eric Cunningham
- Nevada – Likely Democratic > Leans Democratic
In our last Elections Daily ratings update, we discussed our change of Michigan to Leans Democratic due to polling shifts. This week, we’re making the same change with Nevada. Polling in Nevada has been scarce, but a recent high-quality poll from Siena College/The New York Times Upshot indicated a close race.
According to the poll, conducted from September 8 to September 10, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by four percentage points. An earlier poll from the Lee Business School at the University of Nevada showed a similar result. Our initial rating of Nevada at Likely Democratic was indicative of a general lack of polling in the state. We now feel far more comfortable with this state as Leans Democratic. This also brings the Elections Daily ratings in line with other election forecasters like Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
With this change, there are now no states left in the Likely Democratic column. However, this doesn’t mean the race doesn’t still favor Biden. Were Biden to win every state that is in the Democratic column, he would wind up with 278 electoral votes. That’s more than enough to claim the presidency without even dipping into the seven states we have at Tossup. The path to a victory for President Trump still exists, but like in 2016, it relies on breaking through the blue wall of Leans Democratic states while holding most, if not all, of the Tossup states.
Senate Ratings Changes – Adam Trencher and Kraz Greinetz
- Michigan – Likely Democratic > Leans Democratic
Joe Biden and Gary Peters still enjoy a consistent lead in the polls in Michigan. That being said, Peters’s lead in particular has shrunk. He now leads by only 3.5% according to RealClearPolitics. We would like to see more high-quality polls, but the tightening seems real and consistent. In light of all that, we are moving this race to Leans Democratic.