Redistricting history and process
Oddly, Connecticut’s congressional districts have remained mostly unchanged since the dawn of the 21st century. A bipartisan commission is obligated to draw maps, but neither party has been willing to budge in the redistricting process. Because of this, the state Supreme Court has instead had “least change” maps drawn for the last two redistricting cycles. This has mostly preserved the existing district lines, only modifying them to ensure equal population.
As a result of this deadlock, the state has been left with a contorted map that has long outlived its original purpose. Originally the map was drawn to create a “fair fight” seat as the state lost a congressional district in the 2000 Census. The seat pitted two regional incumbents against each other: Republican Nancy Johnson of the 6th district, and Democrat James Maloney of the 5th. Maloney lost to Johnson, who in turn lost in 2006. As the state has become more reliably Democratic, Democrats have seen no reason to compromise on a map that routinely returns five Democrats to Congress.
Demographic breakdown
| District | White | Hispanic | Black | Asian | Native | Pacific |
| 1 | 60.9% | 15.5% | 16.9% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 80.6% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 64.7% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 59.5% | 19.9% | 13.4% | 6.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 67.4% | 18.0% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| State | 66.7% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
Connecticut is the most diverse state in New England. Compared to other states, it has the 11th-largest Hispanic population, the 15th-largest Asian population, and the 23rd-largest Black population by percentage. Connecticut’s minority populations are dispersed throughout the state and primarily located in its largest cities. Because of this, most of the state’s districts are reasonably close to the state’s overall racial demographics. The major exception is the 2nd district; it is the least urban district, and lacks any major cities.
Hartford – the state’s most diverse city, where 41% of voting-age residents are Hispanic and 41% of voting-age residents are Black – is located in the 1st district. Bridgeport (19% white) and New Haven (32% white) represent the largest cities in their respective congressional districts, the 4th and 3rd, respectively. Only one major city – Waterbury (38% white) – is split, with portions in both the 3rd and 5th districts.
| District | Bachelor’s or higher | Rank (of 435) | Non-college white | Rank (of 435) |
| 1 | 37.2% | 125 | 38.5% | 267 |
| 2 | 37.0% | 131 | 52.6% | 134 |
| 3 | 37.4% | 120 | 40.9% | 244 |
| 4 | 52.0% | 26 | 24.4% | 353 |
| 5 | 36.8% | 136 | 43.9% | 215 |
Connecticut ranks as the second-wealthiest state, and it also ranks among the most educated; 40.6% of Connecticut adults have a bachelor’s degree or higher, the sixth-most of any state. Among its congressional districts, college education is most concentrated in the 4th district, located in Connecticut’s prosperous “Gold Coast”. The other four congressional districts all rank in the second quartile of educational attainment – well above the national average.
Because Connecticut’s population skews heavily White, it has a fairly large number of non-college White voters. The highest concentration (52.6%) is in the 2nd district, the most rural in character. The 5th district also barely falls into the second quartile, ranking slightly above the national average.
Political history
| District | Biden | Trump | Margin | Shift |
| 1 | 63.3% | 35.2% | D+28.1% | D+4.9% |
| 2 | 54.7% | 43.3% | D+11.4% | D+8% |
| 3 | 59.2% | 39.5% | D+19.7% | D+5.8% |
| 4 | 64.8% | 33.8% | D+31% | D+6.5% |
| 5 | 54.6% | 43.9% | D+10.7% | D+6.5% |
| State | 59.2% | 39.2% | D+20% | D+6.4% |
When originally drawn following the 2000 Census, Connecticut’s map was a mild Republican gerrymander. This gerrymander broke in 2006 as two Republicans (CT-02’s Rob Simmons and CT05’s Nancy Johnson) were unseated by Democratic rivals; CT-04 Rep. Chris Shays was the last to fall, losing by four points in 2008’s blue wave.
While Connecticut lacks a true swing seat, two districts (2 and 5) are competitive enough on paper, both being within decided by within five points in the 2016 presidential election. It’s likely Connecticut will continue using a variation of the current district lines until the state loses a district – unless some unlikely compromise can be reached.
2022 election results
| District | Incumbent | Democratic | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Larson (D) | 61.3% | 37.5% | D+23.8% |
| 2 | Joe Courtney (D) | 58.2% | 40.2% | D+18% |
| 3 | Rosa DeLauro (D) | 56.8% | 40.7% | D+16.1% |
| 4 | Jim Himes (D) | 59.4% | 40.6% | D+18.8% |
| 5 | Jahana Hayes (D) | 50.4% | 49.6% | D+0.8% |
For the eight straight cycle, Connecticut returned a 5-0 Democratic delegation – although not without a close race, this time. Jahana Hayes, a two-term incumbent in the state’s most competitive district, only barely survived in her Biden+10.7 seat. Republicans nominated an excellent candidate – George Logan – and invested resources into the district. However, Hayes’s strength in the district’s Democratic-leaning northern arm was too much to overcome. This isn’t the first time Democrats have faced a close race in the 5th; 2012 and 2014 saw Elizabeth Etsy win the seat by four and seven-point margins, respectively.
In the state’s remaining districts, all of the Democratic candidates easily won their races. However, the margins and swings present an interesting story. As usual, Joe Courtney, the 2nd district’s extremely popular incumbent, ran well ahead of his district’s baseline lean. Even as his district teeters on the edge of competitiveness, Courtney has had little difficulty holding on by wide margins.
On the other hand, Democratic candidates in the three safely Democratic seats (1, 3, 4) ran behind Biden. The largest underperformance came from Jim Himes in the 4th, a 19-point win in a seat Biden won by 31. But perhaps the most surprising underperformer of the bunch was Rosa DeLauro, who carried her Biden+20 seat by only 16 points, the second-closest congressional result in the state.
Current representatives
- CT-01: John Larson (D-East Hartford)
- CT-02: Joe Courtney (D-Vernon)
- CT-03: Rosa DeLauro (D-New Haven)
- CT-04: Jim Himes (D-Cos Cob)
- CT-05: Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott)
