Redistricting Radar 2022: The 77 Septillion Redistricting Scenarios

Alabama:

Alabama is one of the most Republican states in the country, but its map still constitutes a Republican gerrymander. Our fair map combines Birmingham and Tuscaloosa into a Democratic-leaning, racially-diverse seat (CD-06), while maintaining a majority-Black seat in CD-01. The remaining seats are all overwhelmingly Republican, with all but CD-05 ranking among the most Republican in the nation. Notably, our map only splits six counties – the same as the number of congressional districts. -Eric Cunningham

Arkansas:

Arkansas began the 2010s with a Democratic trifecta, which explains its current oddly-shaped dummymander. Our fair map creates a Democratic-leaning seat, CD-02, by combining the rural, majority-African American Delta region with the diverse cities of Little Rock and Pine Bluff. The remaining seats are all strongly Republican and based around more consistent geographic regions than the previous map. -Eric Cunningham

Arizona:

With the controversy surrounding last cycle’s Arizona congressional map, we hoped to create a fair map that emphasized Arizona communities, proportionality, and competition. CD-01 combines Native communities in the Northern portion of the state with other Native communities in Gila, Maricopa, and Pinal counties and rural communities along the New Mexico border, forming a highly competitive district. Notably, Cochise County moves from the 2^nd district on the current map to CD-01 on this map. As a result, CD-02 is a much more compact and bluer Tucson area only district. CD-03 takes in the rest of Pima County, along with Santa Cruz County and Yuma County, both of which have border Hispanic communities. It also has a small portion of Pinal to keep a reservation whole, and portions of Maricopa for population equality. This district will continue to elect a Latino Democrat. CD-04 continues to stretch from the blood red Tri-cities of Mohave County to blood red Prescott and blood red northern Maricopa. In short, the district is so conservative that its lean is the color of a gums-bleeder’s mouth when Dentist Congressman Paul Gosar is at work. Two major differences from the current map are that this CD-04 takes in the Verde Valley from the 1^st district and that it loses its Pinal portion. CD-05 remains the Eastern Valley district, combining Chandler, Gilbert, and parts of Mesa. It is also appreciably more competitive than the current district. CD-06, CD-07, and CD-08 are near identical seats as the current ones, with CD-07 shifted slightly west and CD-08 a bit more compact in the north. CD-09 is also quite like the current one, though it loses some population in Chandler and Mesa for Scottsdale. CD-10 is the new seat, combining northern Pinal County with the far east end of the Eastern Valley and the Fountain Hills region.

California:

As the largest state in America, a fair map of California must balance a huge number of competing considerations. On our map, we chose to create two Trump-won districts in Northern California, as opposed to the current one. Anchored by Chico, CD-01 overlaps with much of the current CD-01, pulling in much of the rural northern part of the state. CD-04 becomes a red district centered around the exurbs of Sacramento. This in turn pushes CD-04 down the state’s eastern border, absorbing much of the current CD-08. CD-08 has been turned into a San Bernardino based district, which we felt was a more compact, community of interest centered design than the current 8th.

In northern California we significantly shrunk CD-02, turning it into a district entirely composed of San Francisco’s Northern Suburbs. We have also created a majority Asian district (CD-17) in the South Bay. Our version of 20 differs significantly from most proposed maps. We attempted to take in most of the towns and municipalities that lie on the outskirts of the metropolitan area, essentially creating an exurban district. Our split between districts 21 and 23 maintains a majority Hispanic district in CD-21, while keeping Bakersfield whole in CD-23. We also ensured the city of Fresno is located entirely in one congressional district, CD-16. In Los Angeles we kept most districts fairly similar to how they are now, but added an extra plurality Asian district with CD-39.

Finally, the San Diego area was reworked from its current state. We opted for three compact blue districts in the city's urban core and immediate suburbs and one red on encompassing the outer areas of the county. Instead of stretching CD-52 from rural Imperial county to downtown San Diego, we have combined Imperial with the more remote parts of Eastern Riverside County to create a more compact but still majority Hispanic district in the area.

Overall, we hope our map is more compact and more balanced in terms of partisanship than the current boundaries. -Kraz Greinetz

Colorado:

Colorado was a challenging state to draw. In creating our map, we started with a few major criteria:

1. A compact divide of the Denver Metropolitan Area.
2. Keeping the Hispano areas of southern Colorado in one seat.
3. Fairly representing ski country as well as the strongly Republican rurals.

Our map would create a fairly stable 5-3 Democratic advantage. CD-01 remains a Denver-focused seat, while CD-06 contains Aurora and CD-08 stretches from Boulder to the northern Denver suburbs. CD-07 combines Jefferson County with northern Denver suburbs as well, while CD-02 combines Fort Collins and the rural areas of Boulder County with Colorado’s extensive ski country areas. On the Republican side, CD-03 contains all of the western and southern border of Colorado as well as nearly all of the Hispano region. CD-04 looks predominantly rural, but the vast majority of its population resides in Douglas and Weld Counties. Finally, CD-05 remains centered around the conservative Colorado Springs metro. -Eric Cunningham

Connecticut:

The current Connecticut map functions as a mild Democratic gerrymander. Our fair map alters CD-05 to be a swingy, Republican-leaning seat rooted in the northwest of the state. With the exception of the rural, Democratic-leaning CD-02, the remaining three districts are anchored by the major cities: Hartford (CD-01), New Haven (CD-03), and Bridgeport (CD-04). -Eric Cunningham

Florida:

Florida saw massive shifts in the 2020 election which solidified the state’s red lean. Our map gives Republicans a marginal advantage, but a slew of seats would be competitive. It differs drastically from the court-ordered map in the panhandle, where CD-02 regains its traditional Leans Republican design while the Jacksonville-based CD-05 has a solid blue tilt. In the Orlando metro, we gave CD-07 the whiter areas near downtown, united the black community into CD-10, and kept the Hispanic-plurality design of CD-09. Polk County now gets its own seat (CD-29) while the Florida Heartland is based entirely in CD-28, along with parts of Palm Beach.

Our map also differs in South Florida. CD-25 is now based almost entirely in Hialeah, ditching the Everglades connection to the Heartland. CD-26 and CD-27 also retain much of their present designs. All three would have voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but CD-25 swung back hard in 2018 and the other two would be highly-competitive in the near future. Republicans would be favored in a majority of seats statewide, but the idiosyncratic bent of Florida means an unusual number could also become highly competitive. -Eric Cunningham

Georgia:

A rapidly changing state, Georgia allows for a multitude of fair maps. For ours, we decided against a district running from Augusta to Savannah. Instead our Republican CD-12 remains nestled between CD-01 and CD-10, similar to the current map. Most of the important changes come in the Atlanta Metro area.

CDs-04, 05, and 13 remain majority Black while getting cleaner boundaries. CD-04 is now based in western Atlanta, taking in parts of Fulton and Douglas counties that are currently in CD-05 and CD-13. Taking in much of the territory of the old CD-04, CD-05 now accounts for the majority of DeKalb county. The new CD-13 is primarily based around the Democratic counties of Clayton, Rockdale, and Henry.

The suburban, diversifying CD-07 gets a major redesign, shedding Republican precincts in Forsyth County and relocating to take in the entirety of southern Gwinnett County, shoring up the seat for the Democrats. CD-06 gets more Democratic as well, moving from northern Fulton to Cobb County. The new CD-11 in turn takes on much of the old territory of CD-06 in Fulton while also picking up redder parts of northern Gwinnett and southern Forsyth, all of which were once in CD-07. This puts CD-11 in the Republican column. -Harrison Lavelle

Hawaii:

Without a credible Republican presence, Hawaii will not be electing a Republican to the House any time soon. Our fair map divides Hawaii into two seats. The majority-Asian CD-02 comprises the core of Honolulu, while CD-01 contains the rest of the state, including the larger share of Pacific Islander and Native Hawaiians. -Eric Cunningham

Idaho:

Idaho maps have traditionally divided the eastern and western portions of the state. However, with growth in the Boise area we felt it made more sense to have CD-01 contain the rural and Mormon areas of the state and to contain CD-02 in the Boise area. This means CD-02 is a slightly less Republican-leaning seat now, but the GOP should have little issue holding it. -Eric Cunningham

Illinois:

Illinois is a land of shifting sands. As the formerly Republican Chicago suburbs have zoomed left, downstate has begun to turn into a graveyard for Democrats. Our fair map wasn’t drawn with party in mind, but it does provide a clear look at the changing tides.

Downstate, our map would likely elect no Democrats. While CD-12, based in the St. Louis suburbs and surrounding rurals, would have narrowly voted for Tammy Duckworth’s Senate bid, it is too far gone for most Democrats. The remaining downstate is grouped into regions: CD-16 straddles the Indiana border and then into Bloomington, CD-13 combines the Peoria and Springfield metros, and CD-17 straddles the Driftless region. The marquee swing seat would be CD-14, which contains the city of Rockford as well as Chicago’s western exurbs.

In Chicagoland, our map retains three majority-black seats (CD-01, CD-02, and CD-07). CD-04 becomes far more compact but retains its majority-Hispanic nature. While seats like CD-10 and CD-11 were formerly competitive, Democrats would now be favored in both. The two most competitive seats become CD-06, based in the collar counties, and CD-03, which contains portions of Cook and DuPage counties. -Eric Cunningham

Indiana:

2008’s most surprising flip has rapidly reverted to form, and Democrats aren’t close to bottoming out in some areas. While a 7-2 map isn’t quite proportional, it’s hard to draw a map that is more proportional without disregarding fairness. Our map retains the two Democratic-leaning seats of the current map (CD-01 and CD-07), but the rest of the map stays the same for the most part in terms of partisan affiliation. In particular, CD-05 is now concentrated in the northern and western suburbs of Indiana, while CD-06 is based in the areas to the south and east. -Eric Cunningham

Iowa:
Iowa is a challenging state to draw. In addition to its requirement for zero county splits, a map purely focused on compactness can quickly become a mild Democratic gerrymander, locking a Republican-leaning state into a 2-2 map. Our map alters CD-04 to contain the entire western border, including the Omaha suburbs, while CD-03 becomes a compact, Democratic seat rooted in Des Moines and its direct suburbs, as well as the college town of Ames. The remaining two seats remain similar to their present design: competitive, but mildly Republican-leaning seats that are a fair fight for either party. -Eric Cunningham

Kansas:

Our map of Kansas takes a somewhat unorthodox approach to the state. Only one county, Johnson, is split, and we have retained the current design of KS-04, a Democratic-leaning seat based in the Kansas City area. However, our KS-02 draws in most of the major metropolitan areas in the state’s northeastern corner, containing Manhattan, Topeka, and Lawrence. This means the “Big First” CD-01 now draws in the more rural counties in the southeastern corner of the state. -Eric Cunningham

Kentucky:
Kentucky’s current map is a great example of one that is fair, but not compact. Our map takes a different approach, retaining the current 5-1 split the state is known for. However, many seats are redrawn; the split between CD-01 and CD-01 now follows metropolitan lines, and CD-05 now contains nearly all of the counties most strongly associated with the Eastern Kentucky Coalfield. -Eric Cunningham

Louisiana:

A challenging state to draw, Louisiana is a careful balance between communities of interest and radically polarized racial demographics. Our map bases most of the New Orleans metro in CD-02, even the traditionally Republican-leaning areas currently connected by bridge. The core of the Baton Rouge and the Delta black areas create a likely majority-black CD-06. The remaining districts all skew heavily Republican – especially CD-05, which voted for Donald Trump in 2016 by a 50-point margin. -Eric Cunningham

Maine:

Given Maine’s small delegation, a fair map is relatively straightforward. Like most of the maps in Maine over the last few decades, we retained the north/south split. This generally allows Republicans a favorable seat in the northern CD-02, while Democrats shore up the more urban CD-01. -Harrison Lavelle

Maryland:

Maryland is perhaps the most infamous Democratic gerrymander in the country. This map attempts to make sure there is more partisan fairness while increasing minority representation and keeping together communities of interest. CD-01 remains red, but is much more compact, comprising the state’s Eastern Shore as well as the heavily red and exurban Hartford County. CD-06 regains its old shape as a district based in rural Western Maryland with a sizable chunk of the population in Frederick and the Baltimore exurbs.

The new version of CD-04 combines communities of interest that until now have been sliced and diced for purposes of the gerrymander. The district is based in Anne Arundel County (Annapolis), and then takes in the coastal, rural communities of Southern Maryland. While Trump narrowly won it in 2016, the massive shifts around Annapolis means that this district is now solidly democratic.

Lastly, CD-05’s odd shape creates an extra Black-majority district. Right now Maryland only has two, a gerrymander for white Democratic incumbents. But this map makes CD-08 and CD-05 black-majority districts centered on the DC suburbs.

 

Massachusetts:

Massachusetts has perhaps the worst political geography for Republicans in the country, with it being virtually impossible to draw a Republican-leaning seat – and literally impossible to make one that’s compact. Instead, our map respects the regional divides of the state while giving Republicans a few competitive seats. We took great care to ensure towns, whenever possible, remained intact.

Unlike the current map, CD-01 is now based entirely in the Berkshires and Springfield area. As a result, CD-02 becomes the best Republican target statewide as a result of its large white working-class base. Republicans could also be competitive in CD-09 in wave years. CD-07 is now based entirely in Boston, with CD-04 drawing in the city’s most liberal suburbs; CD-05 and CD-06 are also similarly suburban, but not as staunchly liberal. CD-03 unites further suburbs and exurbs of Boston with the city of Worchester, and CD-08 straddles the Rhode Island coast as well as the large, working-class city of Brockton. -Eric Cunningham

Michigan:

While drawn as a gerrymander, Michigan’s current map provided a decent baseline to start our map with. Like in the current one, CD-05 contains major cities in Mid-Michigan and CD-10 lies in the mitten. CD-06 and CD-07 also remain similar to their present iterations, and CD-03 remains a competitive Grand Rapids-based seat. However, major changes were made elsewhere. CD-04 becomes a highly competitive seat rooted around Lansing and central Michigan, while CD-08 becomes based entirely in Oakland County. The most competitive suburban Detroit seat, CD-09, straddles portions of Oakland and Macomb. Overall, this map would yield highly competitive elections while still respecting Michigan’s many communities of interest. -Eric Cunningham 

Minnesota:

In many ways, our Minnesota map is a least-change map. Like the current congressional map, most elections would yield an evenly-divided 8-8 split. However, our map does make some changes, like making CD-02 more Democratic. And downballot, much of rural Minnesota has yet to fully realign at all levels. We expect a continued 4-4 split in most elections, but it would not be impossible for a surprise to happen. –Eric Cunningham

Mississippi:

As recently as 2008, Democrats held a 3-1 majority in Mississippi’s congressional delegation. Those days are long gone, however, as the state has shifted to become firmly Republican at almost every level. While some would argue for a second, competitive seat in the state, we feel that would be very unfair in a state with such a clear and decisive Republican edge. Instead, our map is fairly similar to the current one, but far more compact. The median seat, CD-03, matches the statewide vote in most races, but would not be competitive in any ordinary environment. –Eric Cunningham

Missouri:

What was once America’s premier swing state has rapidly become one of the reddest in the country. Missouri’s current congressional map, while fairly reasonable in proportionality, is an unusual map in several regards. Our map resolves many of these issues.

MO-05 is now rooted entirely in Kansas City and its northern suburbs, while MO-06 draws in the state’s northern counties. MO-03 unites the Jefferson City and Columbia metros into a single seat, while MO-04 draws in the exurbs of St. Louis. Finally, MO-02 retains its current status as a highly-competitive swing seat. -Eric Cunningham

Montana:

One of our major priorities in drawing Montana was to ensure no counties are split. Our map fairly represents Montana’s traditional regional divides, avoids splitting metropolitan areas, and avoids splitting any counties. MT-01 would likely favor Republicans, but it could potentially be quite competitive due to Montana’s quirky nature. -Eric Cunningham

Nebraska:

Nebraska is a solidly Republican state, but Omaha has solidified itself as a marginally Democratic-leaning area. Our map returns a fairer split to the Omaha region while ensuring no other counties are split statewide. -Eric Cunningham

Nevada:

Nevada has quietly assumed the mantle of one of the most competitive states in the country. While Democrats have won all four presidential elections here since their 2004 defeat, they have come by increasingly narrow margins. In fact, Joe Biden did slightly worse here than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Accordingly, our map reflects the state’s swingy nature.

Like in the current map, CD-02 remains a solidly Republican seat combining the rurals with the more urban areas around Reno. CD-03 unites the remaining rural areas in the state as well as more Republican urban areas, adopting a slight Republican lean. This in turn makes CD-04 a more Democratic-leaning seat, with CD-01 remaining a majority-minority seat. A 2-2 split would be likely in most elections, but a wave year could flip CD-03 or CD-04. -Eric Cunningham

New Hampshire:

New Hampshire’s congressional map has remained fairly unchanged for decades. Rather than mess with tradition, we’ve kept the traditional divide consistent, producing a “least-change” map that maintains the consensus map. -Eric Cunningham

New Jersey:

When drawing fair maps in New Jersey, you need to be careful. Incumbency must always be taken into account in a map meant specifically to protect sitting members of Congress. You also have to take population changes into account.

CD-01 remains heavily Democratic. The Norcross seat now takes in the entirety of Camden County, along with a smaller portion to Gloucester County to make up for gains in Camden. Van Drew’s CD-02 is roughly the same, with small gains in Gloucester and Ocean Counties. CD-03 gets bluer for Andy Kim, taking in more of Trenton in Mercer County while shedding redder towns in Ocean County. CD-04 maintains much of its current shape, along with its status as the Garden State’s reddest district. It retains its western tendril into Hamilton Township to protect long-time incumbent Chris Smith. Up north we have CD-05, the home of Josh Gottheimer. This seat is relatively unchanged. It takes in a little more of Morris and Passaic counties, while shedding Hackensack precincts to pick up more elsewhere in Bergen County.

CD-06 keeps its odd shape to protect Frank Pallone, who lives in Long Branch on the coast of Monmouth County. CD-07 gives Republicans their best shot at reliably holding a north Jersey seat, which is to be expected on a fair map. The district sheds the most democratic communities in Somerset like Franklin, Hillsborough, Montgomery, and Somerville while picking up more Republican parts of Warren and Morris counties. To further assist Republicans, the current 7th’s Union and Essex county portions are also scrapped. CD-08 remains unchanged as Albio Sires’s hispanic seat composed of communities like West New York, Hoboken, and Elizabeth. CD-09 keeps Bill Pascrell happy by remaining based around his home town of Paterson.

CD-10 is 57% Black, satisfying the VRA requirement. Donald Payne Jr.’s seat notably picks up Plainfield in an effort to maximize the African American population without dividing communities of interest. CD-11 gets more Democratic for Mikie Sherrill, a fair exchange to ensure that Democrats have a reliable north Jersey seat to make up for the loss of Malinowski’s 7th district. The seat keeps her home of Montclair in the seat while picking up parts of Union that were formerly in the 7th. The more Democratic parts of Morris remain in the 11th. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s CD-12 gets even bluer, picking up the bluest parts of Somerset that were formerly in the 7th. –Harrison Lavelle

New Mexico:

While New Mexico’s current congressional map is proportional, it makes some unusual choices in terms of communities of interest. In our map, CD-01 remains centered on Albuquerque and its suburbs, with only a handful of majority-native precincts removed. Otherwise, CD-02 and CD-03 remain similar to their current designs, with CD-02 having the highest Hispanic population in the state and CD-03 being a minority-coalition seat with a heavy Native American population. -Eric Cunningham

New York:

New York is likely to see its 27-district apportionment reduced to 25 districts. Beginning with Long Island, the North Shore/South Shore split of the current map is preserved. This split is desirable as compared to an East/West split as it matches the traditional communities of interest on Long Island between the white-collar North Shore and more blue-collar South Shore. Long Island is unsplit east of approximately exit 62 on the Long Island Expressway. These areas, including the Hamptons, Riverhead, and NYC exurbs, are combined with the portion of the North Shore east of exit 53 on the L.I.E. to form CD-01. The Suffolk South Shore is combined with a small portion of the South Shore in Nassau County to form CD-02. The rest of the North Shore is placed in CD-03, which reaches population equality by taking in parts of Queens that are relatively suburban, with low-density housing and a car-centric culture. The rest of Long Island – the Nassau County South Shore – is placed into CD-04, along with the Rockaway Peninsula. While the Rockaway Peninsula is an undesirable match for Long Island, it is much preferable to taking in others portions of Queens, as doing so would lessen the ability of Black and Asian voters to elect their desired candidates.

Moving into the city, eastern Queens in split into CD-05 and CD-06, with Atlantic Avenue, Liberty Ave., and Jamaica Ave. forming the border in various places. CD-05 primarily takes in Queens black communities like Laurelton, with some portions in South Brooklyn including Coney Island also included. This complies with federal mandates under the Voting Rights Act and allows those black communities to elect a candidate of their choice. CD-06 primarily takes in Asian communities like Flushing and Elmhurst, also enabling them to elect a candidate of their choice. The remainder of Queens is placed into CD-09, which preserves the voting power of various Hispanic communities as compelled by the VRA by stringing together outer-borough Hispanic communities in Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx.  Moving into Brooklyn, the rest of Brooklyn is split into CD-07, CD-08, CD-10, CD-11, and CD-12. CD-07 and CD-08 are based on the natural communities of interest that subway lines form – commuter who primarily take the A, C, 3, and 4 trains end up in CD-07, whereas those that take the B and Q primarily end up in CD-08. These districts are both predominantly black and preserves black voting power. CD-11 combines Staten Island with portions of South Brooklyn, forming a highly competitive district. CD-10, which includes Boro Park, Williamsburg, Chelsea, and the Upper West Side is designed to combine the largely Jewish parts of NYC. While there is no legal mandate to do this and Boro Park Orthodox Jews and Upper West Side Reform Jews have very different interests in a representative, it is ultimately a better fit than alternatives. Finally, CD-12 combines upscale white portions of Manhattan like the Upper East Side with gentrifying portions of Queens like Long Island City. This preserves the traditional East-West Manhattan split, which appropriate reflects the attitudes of its residents. Finally, the rest of Manhattan is in CD-13, a predominantly Hispanic district based in Harlem, Washington Heights, and University Heights (in the Bronx.) The bulk of the remainder of the Bronx is in CD-14, another predominantly Hispanic seat.

Moving into upstate, CD-15 combines the North Bronx and South Westchester, and CD-16 combines most of the rest of Westchester with all of Rockland. CD-17 is all of Orange and Putnam, with most of Dutchess (excepting Red Hook) and a small portion of Westchester (North Salem). CD-18 takes in most of the rest of the Hudson Valley with Albany suburbs and exurbs like Glen Falls. CD-19 takes in Albany and the surrounding area (locally known as the Capital District), including Troy, Rensselaer, Schenectady, Amsterdam, and Saratoga Springs. CD-20 takes in the North Country (Essex, Clinton, etc.) and combines it with the Utica area. It’s an awkward fit, but it’s the best one because alternatives mess up the Albany region, the Hudson Valley, or other parts of New York. CD-21 combines college areas with Syracuse. Including many universities like Cornell University, Ithaca College, SUNY Cortlandt, and Syracuse University, it forms a natural community of interest, to go with Oswego. CD-22 takes in almost all of the Southern Tier region of New York, which is strongly tied together by historical reasons and State Route 17. CD-23 takes in all of Monroe County (Rochester), and reaches population equality by adding parts of suburban/exurban Rochester in Ontario County. CD-25combines the major urban parts of the Buffalo area by combining it with Niagra Falls and its denser suburbs. The rest of the Buffalo region, along with the area between Syracuse and Buffalo not in other districts form CD-24.

North Carolina:

North Carolina is a challenging state to draw. In terms of proportality, it’s hard to draw a map that perfectly meets the state’s voting patterns while also being compact and respecting communities of interest. However, this new map represents a substantial effort to focus on all three criteria.

In the Blue Ridge Mountains, CD-11 now stretches up into the High Country, taking in Watauga County. This unites three major colleges (Appalachian State, UNC Asheville, and Western Carolina) into a more competitive seat. CD-8 has become a competitive suburban seat, combining the northern and southern Charlotte suburbs with all of Union and most of Cabarrus County. CD-9 is now a majority-minority seat that contains almost all of the Sandhills, but it would also be highly competitive and is trending Republican on the whole.

Another major change comes in the Raleigh area. CD-01 now draws in the majority-African American areas of Wake, while CD-02 is based entirely in the rest of the county. The new CD-14, a red seat, straddles the Raleigh exburbs. Finally, CD-03 now includes all of the Inner and Outer Banks, while CD-07 is based around the rapidly-growing Wilmington area. On the whole, Republicans would be favored in eight seats here, but a strong Democratic year could yield an 8-6 map for Democrats. -Eric Cunningham

Ohio:

A fair map of Ohio presents a number of challenges. Because we were trying to comply with Ohio’s new redistricting rules, we were constrained in terms of what we could do. Ultimately, we tried to create a map that had a fairly representative partisan balance, was compact in terms of district shapes, and kept communities of interest together better than most proposals.

Ultimately, this is what we landed on. CD-01 becomes a blue, Cincinnati-based district. CD-02 takes in its suburbs and exurbs, while CD-15 shifts to be largely southern Ohio. CD-12 keeps its character as a suburban Columbus district, but is made more compact and bluer. Franklin County only being split once makes this a Biden-won district.

In the eastern part of the state, we deliberately crafted CD-06 to be an Applichian district that takes in the bulk of the communities on the West Virginia border. Around Cleveland, we decided to keep CD-11 as a district where Black voters could consistently elect their candidate of choice. While most proposals combine Lake County with the rest of the Northwestern part of that state, we took an alternative route. We felt that Lake went better as a community of interest with the suburbs in Cuyahoga County. -Kraz Greinetz

Oklahoma:

Our Oklahoma map makes some substantial changes from the current one. Most notably, CD-05 is now based entirely in purple Oklahoma County, with only a single precinct being outside it. CD-03 now takes in all of western Oklahoma, shifting CD-04 into the center of the state. Finally, CD-01 now contains more of the direct Tulsa suburbs, including several majority-black precincts in Osage County. –Eric Cunningham

Oregon:

Drawing a fair map of Oregon presents a number of interesting challenges. With 6 districts, it seems unfair to have only one Republican seat in a state where the GOP routinely hits 40% of the statewide vote. Following only county boundaries would give Republicans only one solid seat. That being said, it is easy to go too far in the opposite direction. A very compact map has the potential to give the GOP three winnable seats – a breakdown that is unfair to Democrats.

We decided to aim for a 4-2 map that still had geographic contiguity. We combined the heavily Democratic metros in the central part of the state, while combining the more rural, working-class areas in that region into a medium-red district. We kept CD-02 similar to its current form, and the new CD-06 was made into a suburban Portland seat. – Kraz Greinetz

Pennsylvania:

Pennsylvania is losing a district this year as the population stagnates throughout the state, resulting in major changes. CD-17 is based in Pittsburgh and Allegheny, and would be held by Mike Doyle. While the 2020s might also be the decade we see him retire, this seat is safely in the Democratic column no matter what.

North Philly now gets its own district (CD-02) that is majority-minority but still plurality white. CD-03 is majority black, as is necessary under the VRA, and would likely be the most Democratic district in the nation in terms of Presidential vote. CD-04 does take in some of South Philly, but it stays as a Delaware County-based district for Madeleine Dean. CD-05 is mostly Montgomery County, but can no longer be all in MontCo. The options here are to either expand it into Berks or go into Chester. We feel that it would be unfair to combine heavily Republican Eastern Berks in this district, so the new CD-05 takes in Northern Chester instead.

The new CD-06 takes in the remaining parts of Chester and nearly all of Berks County. This creates a swing district, albeit one that is trending slightly Democratic due to the sharp turn left most of Chester has taken. Susan Wild, however, does get a safer seat than she does currently in CD-07, now taking in all of East Stroudsburg from Monroe County. This takes her from a single-digit Biden district to one that's a double digit victory for him. CD-08 is trending away from Democrats quickly and would be a tough hold for Matt Cartwright, even in normal years.

CD-09, CD-11, CD-12 and CD-13 have been left mostly unchanged from their current form. All are incredibly Republican with no likelihood of that changing soon in any of them. CD-10 now takes in all of Cumberland County, which makes it slightly more Republican, but still trending to the left. This seat would still be very competitive in this form, albeit having a slight Republican lean. It’s similar to our redrawn CD-01, where the district will have a slight Democratic tinge. However, as long as Brian Fitzpatrick is there, Republicans have a strong chance of keeping that seat. Finally, CD-16, which is Conor Lamb’s seat, is still very much a swing seat here. Taking in a good amount of the Pittsburgh suburbs counteracts taking in Lawrence County and part of Washington. This seat is probably slightly tougher for Lamb to hold then his current seat, but basically serves as the Democratic version of CD-01. As long as Lamb is in this seat, they will more than likely win. –Joe Szymanski

South Carolina:

Like its neighbors in the Deep South, racial polarization makes South Carolina a challenging draw. While CD-06 remains a majority-black VRA seat, Democrats likely gain a second seat in CD-01. This seat takes in the core of the Lowcountry, along with portions of the Black Belt and the western portion of Charleston County. The remainder of the coast and Charleston area moves to CD-07, with the Republican-trending CD-05 stretching from Conway to Rock Hill. -Eric Cunningham

Tennessee:

While the current Tennessee map is not unfair, it does a poor job of representing communities of interest. Our new map rectifies this. CD-01 remains rooted in the Tri-Cities region while CD-02 is rooted in Knoxville and its immediate neighbors. Similarly, CD-03 is rooted in Chattanooga. The Nashville-based CD-05 now stretches into affluent Nolensville, while CD-06 draws in the rest of the affluent southern and eastern Nashville suburbs. While the political result remains the same, this new map more fairly represents communities instead of incumbents. -Eric Cunningham

Texas:

Texas saw dramatic shifts in the 2020 election which will have ramifications for years to come. Drastic shifts in the Rio Grande Valley have shifted the need or legality of the current fajita seats. Instead, we drew our seats to focus more on compactness. CD-11 remains a majority-Hispanic seat but now draws in Midland, Odessa, and San Angelo. CD-15 is now based entirely in Hidalgo County, while CD-34 stretches from Cameron County to Corpus Christi. We also felt that minimizing county splits and keeping metros in rural areas was vital; while our split of CD-13 and CD-19 has an odd looking boundary, it keeps Amarillo and Lubbock metro areas whole while splitting zero counties.

In the Austin area, Democrats now have two seats: the majority-minority CD-35 and majority-white CD-37. Our splits in the DFW area avoid splitting cities when possible, with seats like CD-26 and CD-39 likely to be highly competitive. Finally, we maintain the required VRA seats in Houston while creating a more compact and competitive CD-22. As in Texas on the whole, Republicans remain favored in most seats – but future trends may alter the map dramatically. -Eric Cunningham

Utah:

Despite being one of the reddest states in the country, Utah has enough support for a competitive seat. Our map alters CD-02 to now be a predominantly rural seat, drawing almost all of the state’s rural areas. CD-03 now stretches from Provo to South Jordan and Sandy, with CD-04 becoming a Democratic-leaning seat based in Salt Lake City. Finally, CD-01 contains the northern suburbs and exurbs of the SLC area. -Eric Cunningham

Virginia:

Virginia is a state with a ton of different possibilities. The state has been under a GOP gerrymander for the last decade, but most proposed fair maps don’t change very much from the current arrangement. Likewise, we kept CD-02, CD-03, and CD-04 largely the same as their current form. However, we made a few critical changes.

Mainly, we made CD-04 more heavily rural, and had it take the entire city of Richmond. This in turn allowed us to create a true suburban swing district in the Richmond suburbs. Right now most proposals stretch the Richmond suburbs to Charlotsville to create a blue leaning seat. But we wanted to keep Charlotsville in a district centered on Central Virginia's cities. We were able to do this by stretching CD-05 from Charlotsville to Roanoke.

The rest of the map has very little substantive change from the current verison. -Kraz Greinetz

Washington:

Our map is broadly similar to the current Washington map, which is generally fair and respectful of communities of interest. Like the previous map, ours has a competitive CD-08 that would lean more Republican at the state level but fairly Democratic at the federal level. -Eric Cunningham

West Virginia:

Our priority here was in securing the historical division between southern West Virginia and the rest of the state. CD-01 draws in both of West Virginia’s panhandles into one seat, while CD-02 comprises all of southern West Virginia as well as the Charleston area. Both seats roughly match the current political situation in West Virginia: a very white and very red state. -Eric Cunningham

Wisconsin:

This fair map of Wisconsin was perhaps one of our most contentious. Staff members had a variety of preferences just in the Milwaukee area alone. Here were the criteria we were trying to meet:

1. Keep the city of Milwaukee together or almost entirely together.
2. Only split Milwaukee County once
3. Keep Waukesha County together.
4. Create a competitive district in the Milwaukee suburbs.
5. Do not connect Racine and Kenosha with the Milwaukee suburbs in order to create the aforementioned competitive district.

Given the constraints present, we’re proud of the map we created. It’s not perfect – in 2020 it went 6-2 for Trump, and we recognize the partisan imbalance present here. But we feel that we’ve created a map for the next decade that will be competitive and represent coherent communities of interest. Our version of CD-05 is deeply competitive and trending blue. Our CD-03 is the reverse, being competitive but red-trending.

With this map, we also managed to keep together the “B.O.W” counties in Northwest Wisconsin’s CD-08, a community of interest we felt is often sliced and diced in most proposals. -Kraz Greinetz