On Friday, President Trump signed Republicans’ reconciliation bill into law, making the accompanying tax cuts and shifts in expenditure official. Almost directly after, Tennessee Representative Mark Green finally fulfilled his promise, and departed Congress. This leaves a Trump+22 seat open, and a special election will likely be held on November 4, the same day as elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere.
It must not be understated that we can expect the bill to do huge damage. Not least to the 10 million Americans who are expected to lose their health insurance, but also to Republicans’ electoral chances. The bill is staggeringly unpopular. With just a hundred days until the Tennessee special election, Republicans have little time to do damage control.
This isn’t a district that would typically be competitive, but everything is working out in Democrats’ favor. First, off-year elections are typically unkind to the presidential party. Second, Democrats have been doing very well in special elections so far. Third, Republicans just passed the most unpopular piece of legislation in half a century. If a district with 60 percent of voters favoring Republicans could ever flip, it’s now.
The District
The first thing to know about Tennessee’s 7th district is that it’s a product of gerrymandering. But don’t let yourself think that makes the situation for Republicans in this district any better. Before the latest redistricting cycle, the 5th district was based almost entirely in Nashville, and was Safe Democratic. But in 2022, the Republican legislature decided to split the district into three; as a result the 5th district became Republican leaning, and as a trade-off Mark Green and fellow Republican John Rose took about a quarter of Nashville each. So while the old 7th district voted for Trump in 2020 by 35.6 percent, the new one voted for him by just 15.1.
Presidential results within current boundaries:
- 2024: Trump+22.3
- 2020: Trump+15.1
- 2016: Trump+17.2
- 2012: Romney+10.0
- 2008: McCain+2.7
Of the three districts that contain part of Nashville, the 7th isn’t nominally the most competitive. That title belongs to the 5th, which contains half of Davidson County and a lot of suburban areas. But the 7th isn’t far behind, and is historically more competitive. While it contains less of Nashville and more rural areas, the parts of Nashville it does contain are deep, deep blue. It also contains Clarksville and Franklin, two not-so-red cities, and a lot of exurbs. To help visualize the district’s character, I’ve split it into four parts.

West Nashville
- 2020 presidential: Biden+46.3
- Demographic makeup: 54.2% White (NH), 33.3% Black (NH), 6.2% Hispanic
- Population: 180,759 (23.5% of the district)
- Type: Big city
While only containing a quarter of the city, the chunk of Nashville in the 7th district is extremely urban. It goes all the way to downtown, and contains some of the most built-up and run-down parts of the city. Most of the majority Black precincts in the city, and two universities, Belmont and Vanderbilt, lie within the district. This combination causes the chunk to be very heavily Democratic leaning, enough to make the whole district competitive. It also has its fair share of both majority white and majority black suburbs.
White and Black Democrats, which make up a roughly equal share in this part, are of paramount importance. And luckily for Democrats, enthusiasm among both groups seems to be very high. Democrats swung a majority Black, albeit very rural, district in South Carolina a few weeks ago, by a gargantuan margin. And in April’s special elections in Florida, White Democrats came out in droves.
Both margin and turnout within Nashville will be crucial in October. The bulk of Democratic voters in this district are from Nashville, so without a good performance here, they don’t stand a chance.
Nashville Environs
- 2020 presidential: Trump+37.6
- Demographic makeup: 84.6% White (NH), 5.9% Hispanic, 5.3% Black (NH)
- Population: 254,683 (33.2% of the district)
- Type: Suburbs and exurbs
Four counties make up this part: Cheatham, Dixon, Robertson, and part of Williamson. These counties have 40 to 80 thousand people each, and all lie close to Nashville. The median income of this area is well over 50 thousand dollars, making it more or less the most affluent part of the state. Williamson County is of particular interest, or rather the city of Franklin is. Franklin is a hub of country music and very rich Republican donors. If Republicans want to hold their own, they’ll probably make a strong appeal to Franklin, so they can raise the funds to consolidate support.
Although very red, this part also might prove very elastic. White suburban voters in recent years have proven capable of being easily influenced. So on a good night for Democrats, we might even expect Republicans to be held within single digits here. And considering it’s the most populous of the four parts, such a result is likely to lead to a Democratic victory.
Clarksville and Surroundings
- 2020 presidential: Trump+12.7
- Demographic makeup: 62.6% White (NH), 22.1% Black (NH), 9.0% Hispanic
- Population: 220,069 (28.7% of the district)
- Type: Mid-sized city
You can think of Montgomery County as a bellwether of the district as a whole. It votes a few points more blue than the district, and the county seat of Clarksville, the fifth biggest city in Tennessee, is more or less evenly split. While Clarksville is about as diverse as Nashville, it’s much more of a melting pot, with its White, Black and Hispanic population fairly evenly spread over the city. Like the Nashville environs, it is also very affluent and built up.
In many ways, Clarksville is the city that anchors the district, more than Nashville. It has just never been influential enough on its own to make the whole district competitive. So when election night comes, take a good look at the results in Montgomery County, because they will likely reflect the results of the whole district.
Rural Tennessee
- 2020 presidential: Trump+58.9
- Demographic makeup: 91.0% White (NH), 3.6% Black (NH), 1.9% Hispanic
- Population: 112,360 (14.6% of the district)
- Type: Rural
Although it’s by far the least populous part of the district, Rural Tennessee is what makes the district reliably Republican. This part consists of eight counties, and is deep red. Democrats’ only hope may be for low turnout in this area, but there is room for gains. Its ancestral Democratic strength may not be around anymore, but it’s worth noting that this part of the district isn’t nearly as affluent as the rest. It will likely be one of the parts of the state hit most hard by the Medicaid cuts, so the reconciliation bill likely won’t do Republicans any favors here.
The Candidates
The main unknown as of now is candidate quality. Speculation has already begun regarding who will run, and we should get announcements within the coming days.
Republicans
Four Republicans have already announced bids for this seat, while four more have expressed interest. By the time the filing deadline closes, we’re likely to see an extremely crowded primary. The best comparison to this is the primary for the 5th district in 2022, which had 12 candidates vying for the open seat. If it’s anything like that, the primary will probably involve the candidates fighting to prove that they are more loyal to President Trump and the MAGA agenda than the rest.
The potential candidates include Commissioner Matt Van Epps, State Representative Jody Barrett and former State Representative Brandon Ogles. Many of the candidates are veterans, and their platforms range from staunch conservatism to constitutionalism and libertarianism. It is unsure whether whoever is nominated will have the values it takes to do well in a general election, but Tennessee has never shied away from candidates who are “out there”, so to speak.
In other words, central Tennessee Republicans don’t often send their best. Scott DesJarlais of the 4th district was a serial philanderer, pressured multiple women to get abortions, and pulled a gun on his wife. Andy Ogles of the 5th district is under federal investigation for campaign finance fraud and fabrication of qualifications that would make George Santos blush. John Rose of the 6th district married an undergraduate less than half his age after she got a scholarship with his name on it. And Mark Green was forced to withdraw his name from an executive appointment due to bigoted statements.
If the trend continues and Republicans nominate another very questionable candidate, their chances in this special election fall dramatically. At first glance, it doesn’t seem that any of the candidates are that problematic, but when the campaign gets underway, anything could happen. Republicans would be wise to exercise caution.
Democrats
Democrats’ most recent candidate for the 7th district was Megan Barry. Barry was a former mayor of Nashville, but resigned in 2017 after pleading guilty to felony theft. She lost by 21 percent against Green in 2024. It’s clear that she’s not the best that Democrats can put forward, so they’ll have to think of somebody else.
In the end, the Democratic nominee will likely be one of two people: state representatives Bo Mitchell and Vincent Dixie. Mitchell touts a connection to both urban and rural Tennessee, and represents a swing district. This combination may be a good fit for a district with such demographic diversity. Dixie, meanwhile, has built his political career around healthcare issues and Medicaid, which is exactly the sort of messaging that Democrats will want to put forward considering the magnitude of recent cuts. And let’s be honest, “Vincent Dixie” is the perfect name for a Tennessee representative.
It doesn’t seem too likely that there will be a primary to decide the Democratic nominee, at least not a competitive one. Tennessee Democrats seem to want to consolidate around one candidate, giving them precious time to mount a general election campaign early. Whether they choose Mitchell or Dixie, or somebody with equally impressive credentials, they are likely to start off in a strong position. It will be up to their judgement to decide how best to expand their turf and get out the vote among their core voters.
Path to Victory
In such a Republican-leaning district, Democrats need everything to work out for them in order to win. It will not be enough to simply do well in one area, or among one demographic group. They need to gain everywhere. What they need is just the right combination of gains, factoring in swings and turnouts. A sweet spot, of sorts.
I call this the “Alabama strategy”. It’s named for the 2017 U.S. Senate election in Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones overcame a massive partisan disadvantage to flip a Senate seat. Of course, this was a unique case, since his opponent, Roy Moore, a fundamentalist with credible allegations of sexual assault and molestation, was one of the most horrific Senate candidates in history. But Jones won because everything worked to his advantage. Black turnout was high, White turnout low, and Jones gained everywhere but particularly in the suburbs. As a result, Jones managed to squeak a narrow victory.
Namely, for Democrats to win this special election, turnout in Nashville will need to be high. But they will also need to run up the numbers in Clarksville and the suburbs, both by turning out their own voters and persuading others. And if they can persuade a sizeable number of rural voters, that will also be of benefit to them. With this combination, a path to victory becomes very clear to them. Ultimately, any gains that Democrats will make will be correlated, so it’s not infeasible for them to come up with a district-wide strategy that will achieve this. But it will be a mountain to climb.
The Consequences
Of course, if Democrats do pull off a win, they will need to defend the seat in 2026. This will be a far greater challenge, since they will have a national environment to contend with, and they won’t be able to rely on large turnout gaps. Democrats would likely start off as underdogs either way.
But in a way, it doesn’t matter. The national environment is looking so good for them that flipping the House in 2026 is all but a safe bet. They won’t have to rely on solid red districts like this when there are dozens of light red ones for the picking.
It’s the next year and a half that matters. The House is currently split 219-212 for Republicans. Three other special elections in Safe Democratic seats are also coming later this year. One more Democrat, Mikie Sherrill, is likely to vacate her seat upon her expected election as governor of New Jersey, so they will want to hold a special election for that seat as soon as possible, either late this year or early next.
If Democrats win all four, or all five, special elections, the House would be split 219-216. This means Republicans would only be able to afford to lose two votes. For context, two Republicans voted against the reconciliation package. Flipping just one seat would severely handicap Republicans’ ability to pass legislation on their own.
This election will be sure to develop over time, and I will be doing my best to cover it. Thank you for reading, and keep your eye out for more.