On June 9, Representative Mark Green of Tennessee’s 7th district announced his intention to resign. Following the passage of the reconciliation bill, Green will join the private sector. Green’s district mostly covers rural west-central Tennessee, and has been represented by Republicans since 1983. Republicans will be fine… probably.
There’s just one slight problem. At the last redistricting cycle, in a successful effort to throw out Democratic representative Jim Cooper, they split Nashville between three districts. In doing so they gained a representative, but made two of their incumbents absorb deep blue territory.
And Green got the worst of this. His chunk of Nashville is the bluest of the three, and contains most of the majority black precincts in the city. As a result, his district voted for Trump by 15.1 percent in 2020, and by 22.3 percent in 2024. Still very red, but remember that Elise Stefanik, who represents a district about as red, had her UN nomination pulled due to putting Republicans’ majority at risk.
Republicans have a very clear advantage in the special election, which will likely take place around September or October. But they should not take their chances for granted, and neither should Democrats. Especially when Republicans have been very heavily underperforming in special elections so far this year.
There have been 40 special elections in 2025 so far, across 15 states. In this article, I will examine five of these states, and examine what each tells us about Republicans’ fate. Before I start, I’d like to thank the Downballot for providing special election data for the entire “Trump era”, i.e. since Trump was first elected in 2016.
Florida
Two failed nominations by Trump in his transition period have led to a cascade of special elections. Both Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz vacated their U.S. House seats to serve a non-existent and short stint, respectively, in Trump’s cabinet. Gaetz’s seat was won by Jimmy Patronis in a special election, but attracted a failed bid from State Representative Joel Rudman. Waltz’s seat was won by Randy Fine, whose State Senate seat was won by Debbie Mayfield, who in turn had to vacate a State House seat, which was won by newcomer Brian Hodgers.
This cascade resulted in five special elections across north and central Florida. Despite Republicans holding every seat, each saw big swings toward Democrats. The congressional special elections, the only ones so far in the nation this year, were notable. The 1st district in the northwest swung 22 percent, while the 6th district in the northeast swung 16. These are gargantuan swings even by wave standards. The 3rd Senate district, also in the northwest, saw a similar swing of 21 percent earlier in June. Two special elections in Brevard County on the same day saw less impressive, but still notable, swings of 11 and 9 percent.
These results are unambiguously good news for Democrats. Their losing streak in Florida over the last decade has been disastrous, and they seem to have all but given up on the state. They can’t hope to turn the state blue again without massive reversions among Hispanic voters in the south, but the stellar showings in the north have made the prospect look not so impossible anymore.
There are two more special elections in September, both in safely Democratic Orlando-based seats. These will tell us more about Democrats’ position among minority, mainly African American, voters. Florida is hardly representative of the nation, but as the third largest state, we can’t understate its influence.
Iowa
Three special elections have been held this year, across urban and rural seats, in Eastern Iowa. All have had almost uniform swings of around 25 percent. The 35th Senate district, which held an election in January, unexpectedly elected a Democrat, Thomas Townsend. This election took place eight days into the Trump presidency, in theory long before “midterm blues” should have kicked in. But it was a dire result, and special elections in March and April proved that it wasn’t an exception.
Now, it must be noted that Iowa has a track record of giving Democrats good special election performances. Iowa held four state legislative special elections in 2017, and in each, Democrats performed more than 30 point better than in the 2016 presidential election. This may have been a case of “downballot lag”, since Iowa swung big to the right in 2016. In 2018 and 2019, the overperformances were far less remarkable, and in 2021 under Biden’s presidency, they went back to underperforming. So this sudden comeback from Iowa Democrats is no small thing.
Whether these special elections are a feature or a bug, Republicans can’t afford to take Iowa for granted. They won two of their four U.S. House seats in 2024 by razor-thin margins, and the incumbents arguably start off as underdogs in 2026. In a “wave” scenario Democrats may even set their sights on a third Republican representative, Ashley Hinson. The race for Governor is expected to be highly competitive, as may also be the Senate race. For such a small state, Republicans have a lot to lose.
Oklahoma
Speaking of states with frequent off-year quirks, no state is more friendly to Democrats than Oklahoma. It’s ironic, considering it’s one of the reddest states in the country, but Democrats have a remarkable special election streak here. Since Trump first took office in 2017, Democrats have outperformed the most recent presidential margin by an average of 24.4 percent, the highest of any state.
But even that figure doesn’t account for the sheer magnitude of overperformance in the special election for the 71st State House district, held on June 10. In a Tulsa-based district where Kamala Harris attained 58 percent, Democratic candidate Amanda Clinton got a staggering 85 percent. This amounted to a swing of 50 percent, the biggest overperformance in Oklahoma at least since 2016.
Oklahoma is hardly significant in 2026 in the same way that Iowa is. But these sorts of swings shouldn’t be happening at all if Republicans want any chance of winning key elections in the near future.
Pennsylvania
With 39 special elections from the 2016 election until now, no state has had more than Pennsylvania. And they tell a story very similar to many other states. These include famous examples like in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district, along with less remarkable ones. Pennsylvania has proven a very competitive and key state on all levels, so state legislative special elections carry a lot of importance.
So far just two of these elections have been held, and both have brought good news for Democrats. They comfortably held a State House seat, maintaining their razor-thin majority in the chamber. But on the same day, Democrat James Malone very narrowly flipped a reliably Republican seat in the Lancaster suburbs. This seat is particularly important because it brings Democrats one step closer to a State Senate majority. If they hold Malone’s seat, which will be up again in 2026, they need just two of the 6th, 16th, 24th and 40th districts, all very light red, to win a majority. If they achieve this, they will hold a trifecta in the state for the first time since 1994.
Like Iowa, Pennsylvania has a handful of highly competitive U.S. House seats. Republicans narrowly flipped two of them in 2024 so they will be looking to take those back in 2026, as well as take out longtime incumbent Scott Perry. But the State Senate is arguably the most important, since it may give Democrats the power to pass laws on their own in the nation’s fifth biggest state.
South Carolina
It’s one thing to gauge how much a party is gaining support, but another to gauge where they are gaining, and with whom. This year, for the most part, special elections have been taking place in majority white districts. So we are somewhat short on data around minority votes. In particular, African American voters, who have been moving away from Democrats somewhat in recent years, are of particular interest. Will Democrats maintain their extremely strong base of support, or will they move more to the right?
The special election to South Carolina’s 50th State House district may have given us our answer. A very rural majority black district between Columbia and Florence, it has gone from Biden+15.9 to Harris+5.1. If Republicans were to gain more among African Americans, this district would be one of the first to flip.
But Democrats need not have worried. On June 3, Democrat Keishan Scott won the district by 41 percent. While this electorate may not have been representative of African Americans in key cities such as Atlanta or Philadelphia, this is still about as promising as it can get for Democrats.
Other Significant Contests
I actually omitted Democrats’ biggest overperformance, where they won a Trump+55 district 35 percent. This Brooklyn-based district has a very large Hasidic Jewish community. In Borough Park in particular, where the majority of the population speak Yiddish, it is extremely common for voters to vote Republican on the national level, but Democratic downballot. It is rare for Republicans to even run candidates here, despite winning as much as 80% in presidential elections. The character of this district is so unique that it can be considered an outlier.
Of all the states that have held special elections, I probably picked the five best ones for Democrats. But in three special elections, one each in Connecticut, Delaware and Massachusetts, Democrats actually underperformed the 2024 presidential baseline. This can probably be attributed to New England having a more independent streak than the rest of the country, but they shouldn’t be ignored.
Still, don’t think I’m cherry-picking; Democrats’ performances this year have been nothing short of spectacular. Two thirds of special elections have shown double-digit Democratic overperformances, and that simply doesn’t happen in a neutral environment. These results are concrete evidence that we’re in wave territory.
Nothing Special?
One thing to know about special elections is that they are very wacky. They are typically low-turnout, but that largely depends on how much money is spent on it. A special electorate very rarely aligns with a general electorate. So if Democrats win a Trump+30 district in a special election now, don’t expect them to hold it in November next year.
That said though, special elections are surprisingly prophetic. In early 2018, Democrats flipped a blood-red House seat in Pennsylvania and came close in similar seats in Arizona and Ohio, preceding a gain of 40 seats in November. In 2020, a California Republican flipped back one of those seats, and later massively outperformed expectations. The opposite case was true in 2022, where Democrats almost retained the House despite a very negative environment, after having an extremely successful special election season, which was so eventful it almost deserves its own article.
It’s also worth noting that overperformances are not uniform over a particular presidency. For example, the second half of the Trump presidency was a lot better for Republicans than the first. And Democrats had a strangely strong streak in February 2023, in the middle of Biden’s presidency. So just because Democrats are doing well now, it doesn’t mean they will do well next year.
For now, it’s all eyes on the fall. As well as Tennessee there will also be congressional special elections in Arizona, Texas and Virginia to fill the seats of three recently deceased Democratic representatives. While all of these will be safe for Democrats, it will be interesting to see the swings. They will also give us an insight on the voting patterns of minority voters.
As stated before, the Tennessee seat will likely not flip. But the stakes are so high that Democrats would be fools not to shore up even the smallest of chances. Recent special elections have proven that they are absolutely capable of achieving the swings necessary to flip it. But it will come down to candidate quality and voter enthusiasm.
