“We all are going to die.”
Republicans’ latest campaign message comes on the heels of the House of Representatives passing their latest budget reconciliation bill. The Senate is due to amend and vote on the bill, and it will most likely pass due to Republicans’ 53-47 majority. Some moderate and populist members have doubts, but among the bill’s proponents in the Senate is Joni Ernst from Iowa. It was Ernst who, in a constituent town hall meeting, gave this very nihilistic assessment in support of this piece of legislation.
The bill, to put it mildly, is not exactly a vote-winner. It cuts eligibility for Medicaid and SNAP, both hugely unpopular positions. Its tax cuts favor higher income earners, and the poorest Americans wind up paying more in taxes. And what’s more, the bill is projected to increase the deficit by a staggering $3.8 trillion, piling onto the federal government’s existing gargantuan debt. For comparison, the contentious Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) added an estimated $1.5 trillion to the deficit.
It would be unwise to assume that the outrage over this bill won’t last. In 2018, when Democrats won 40 House seats, the TCJA was a central point of focus. What’s more, voters still had concerns about Congress rolling back healthcare provisions when the elections rolled around, despite them failing to do so the year before.
Voters remember. Especially when legislation has drastic lasting effects.
But nobody is shooting themselves in the foot more than Ernst. Not only was her comment so callous, but it deeply hurts her re-election campaign. In almost any other scenario, Ernst would be safe. Trump won her state by 13 percent in November, and it has only solidified as a red state in recent years. But in an election cycle like this, Republicans may need a much stronger safety net to keep seats like this from flipping.
It’s not just Iowa. Five other states were won by Trump by low double digits in 2024, and have possibly very favorable conditions for Democrats.
The Lay of the Land
The Senate has two members per state regardless of population, and due to smaller states typically being more Republican, they have an inherent advantage. But despite this, Democrats have held strong. In 2024, for example, they lost four seats, but held onto four in states where Trump concurrently won.
Observers often talk about a “good map” or a “bad map” with respect to the Senate. Because a third of Senate seats are up every cycle, one party can be forced to defend much more vulnerable seats than another.
In 2026, the map is decidedly bad for Democrats. Just one state has a Republican senator up for re-election in a state Kamala Harris won. And Trump won another by just three percent. Conversely, Trump won two seats that Democrats are defending. And three Democrats are retiring in states where Trump either won, or came very close to winning.
That makes six seats (Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and North Carolina) that Democrats must win. Given the climate, and recruitment shortcomings by Republicans, this isn’t implausible. But even if they won all six, that would still leave them two short of a majority.
Thankfully for Democrats, this isn’t a neutral environment. Instead of worrying about the “purple” states, they can afford instead to look into Republican territory. With this mentality, there are six more seats that they can win. These are Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas. All red states, but all with a very clear path to victory for Democrats.
Alaska
- 2024 presidential result: Trump+13.3
- Republican incumbent: Dan Sullivan
- Democratic star player: Mary Peltola
Many observers in 2020 may remember the popular Election Twitter-ism, “don’t sleep on Alaska”, or “don’t sleep on Al Gross”. Sullivan’s re-election battle garnered such keen attention among the online community that they even managed to crowdfund a poll for this race. But when Sullivan won by double digits, we all went back to sleeping on Alaska.
That is, until less than two years later, when Democrat Mary Peltola won a special House election in an upset. After that, she was seen as an electoral powerhouse, a force to be reckoned with. Even after narrowly losing re-election, she is still widely sought after as a recruit for 2026.
There are three key races in Alaska in 2026: for governor, for Senate, and for its lone House seat. Peltola has filed for her old House seat, but hasn’t ruled out a bid for either of the other offices. Reports suggest she is likely to run for governor, staying closer to home. But of the three, the Senate seat would be where she would have by far the most influence, and if Democrats were sensible they would be pushing her in that direction.
Sullivan has maintained a discreet profile in his ten years as a senator. In public he has focused on local issues, but very rarely bucks the party line. But polls suggest he has middling approval and would be vulnerable against Peltola. Democrats have a shot at all three races, and should definitely take their chances in Alaska seriously.
Florida
- 2024 presidential result: Trump+13.1
- Republican incumbent: Ashley Moody
- Democratic star player: Josh Weil
Since 2014, there hasn’t been an election cycle when Florida hasn’t been a source of disappointment for Democrats. Anybody watching election night coverage knows what it’s like to watch Florida results rapidly come in and falsely think that it is a reflection of the nation as a whole. At this point, it’s not surprising that Democrats have all but given up on the state.
But as much as Florida seems to defy reason, it is important to think rationally. Except for Ohio, it is the least red of the six states on this list. And most of its gargantuan swing in recent years has been as a result of Cubans in South Florida. Trump’s net approval among Hispanics is at around -30, and his hostile deportation policy isn’t likely to play well with them. Cubans in particular are a very unpredictable demographic, but history shows that they are very capable of supporting Democrats. There’s no reason to believe Democrats will suddenly be winning Miami-Dade County by 30 percent again, but they don’t need to swing it back that much to bring Florida back into play.
Ashley Moody, who currently holds the seat, is the most likely Republican candidate. But remember that Moody is an unelected incumbent. Research shows that appointed members don’t have an incumbency advantage the same way that elected ones do. And there are already three current or former Republican representatives expressing interest in the seat. This includes disgraced former Attorney General nominee Matt Gaetz. In the unlikely event Gaetz wins a primary, the race would become significantly more competitive, due to Gaetz’s eyebrow-raising past.
All in all, Moody doesn’t have any particular weaknesses as a Republican primary candidate. Nevertheless, I don’t think there’s anything remarkable about her that would make her immune to a challenge. There’s no reason not to expect that somebody like Kat Cammack or Cory Mills will be nominated instead.
Maybe the biggest gift to Republicans is the incompetence of the state Democratic Party. They are infamous for their bad organization, and for their disappointing performances in state elections. The race has already attracted several Democratic challengers, but one seemingly much more credible than the rest: Josh Weil. Weil recently lost a special election to replace Mike Waltz, but outperformed the presidential margin by 16 percent. Weil has shown to be a capable fundraiser, but whether he can win over key demographics remains to be seen. Overall, this race is a very long shot for Democrats, but it is still worth watching.
Iowa
- 2024 presidential result: Trump+13.5
- Republican incumbent: Joni Ernst
- Democratic star player: J.D. Scholten
Ernst’s Senate race has been the subject of a lot of recent speculation, for good reason. People are angry. A senator showing a dismissive attitude to people’s lives no doubt fails to inspire hope in her constituents. And whoever her opponent is would be smart not to forget that. If you live in Iowa, chances are you’ll be hearing “we all are going to die” played back over and over on attack ads.
There will likely be several candidates vying for the chance to take on Ernst. Four named candidates are in the running, or have expressed interest, these being Nathan Sage, J.D. Scholten, Josh Turek and Zach Wahls.
I was initially inclined to pick Wahls as Democrats’ strongest candidate. He’s young, charismatic, and has leadership experience. However, the latter is a contentious point, since he was forced out of his leadership in 2023 by his colleagues. That, along with the fact that he doesn’t have as much of a track record in electability as Scholten or Turek, makes me think that he wouldn’t be the optimal pick. He’s not a weak candidate, but Democrats need everything to work for them in order to flip this seat.
Instead, I would say that Scholten seems like the best pick. He has a track record of electability, coming very close to winning a Trump+30 House seat in 2018. Granted, this was against a self-described white supremacist, and two years later, he lost by a much greater margin to a more generic Republican, albeit still while outperforming the top of the ticket. Scholten is something of a measured populist, which may help him in a state like Iowa.
Ernst’s gaffe may not be remembered for long, but it shows something deeper about her character. Making a mockery of constituents is not the sort of behaviour that typically helps somebody win re-election. If she continues to act this way, it becomes easier and easier for Democrats to unseat her.
Kansas
- 2024 presidential result: Trump+16.1
- Republican incumbent: Roger Marshall
- Democratic star player: Sharice Davids
Kansas is in many ways what Florida isn’t. It has been a red state for around a century, last voting for a Democrat for president in 1964. And yet in recent years, Democrats have amassed a solid track record in the state. It has a Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, who has won in both favorable and unfavourable environments. And in general, the state has proven to be very elastic.
While Kelly has flatly ruled out running for office again, Democrats do have a candidate who is almost as strong. Sharice Davids, a member of the Ho-Chunk Nation and Kansas’s first LGBTQ Representative, has a strong record of electoral success. Since she very comfortably beat incumbent Kevin Yoder, she has resisted both unfavourable environments and gerrymandering. If she decided to put her hat in the ring, she would be a force to be reckoned with.
Roger Marshall, the incumbent senator, is low-key, but decidedly on the right-wing flank of the party. He voted to overturn the 2020 election, and periodically votes against bipartisan measures. He is not as incendiary as some of his colleagues, but his ideological tendencies could be easily used against him.
Because of the partisan lean of the state, flipping this seat would be a long shot. Without a provably strong candidate like Davids, it may not be worth putting any resources into it at all. But if Davids does decide to run, this seat could be key to Democrats’ chances of taking the Senate.
Ohio
- 2024 presidential result: Trump+11.2
- Republican incumbent: Jon Husted
- Democratic star player: Allison Russo
After just two years in elected office, America’s favorite feline sceptic J.D. Vance was elected as Vice President in 2024. When he took office, Gov. Mike DeWine appointed middle-of-the-road generic Republican Jon Husted to fill his seat. But unlike Ashley Moody, Husted seems to have cleared the Republican primary field. He has secured the endorsement of Donald Trump, and has avoided a challenge from Vivek Ramaswamy.
Some Democrats hope that Sherrod Brown, who narrowly lost re-election to Ohio’s other Senate seat last year, will make a comeback. This hasn’t been ruled out yet, although some seem to assume he’s making a bid for governor. Brown would be a strong candidate; after all, he did outrun Trump significantly despite losing. But he is very old-school, and electing aging candidates has caused setbacks for Democrats recently.
They may instead have to rely on Allison Russo, Democratic leader in the state house. Russo is by most standards a fairly generic Democrat. Her against Husted could simply be decided by the national environment. And considering that Ohio is the least red of the six states on this list, a 2018-like environment may be all Russo needs. But all in all, this is a race we still know very little about. A lot can change in the next 17 months, and who will benefit from this change remains to be seen.
Texas
- 2024 presidential result: Trump+13.7
- Republican incumbent: John Cornyn
- Democratic star player: James Talarico
Flipping Texas has long been a dream for Democrats. In 2018, they almost got their wish when Beto O’Rourke lost to Ted Cruz by a razor-thin margin of 2.6 percent. Ever since, they have been holding out hope that the rapidly growing suburbs would eventually turn the state blue.
Their hopes seemed to be dashed last year. The 2024 election saw an eight percent swing to the right in Texas, the sixth highest of any state. They have also learned the hard way that Cornyn is not nearly as beatable as Cruz. With a wide base of support in the state, unseating him would be a near-impossible task for Democrats. Arguably not worth the time or energy at all.
But to Democrats’ glee, or horror, depending on how you look at it, they may not have to face Cornyn. He faces a primary challenge from embattled state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and by all indications, Paxton may win. Paxton has been described as far-right, and was indicted for securities fraud in 2015. In 2020, Paxton was impeached by the state house in an overwhelming bipartisan vote for bribery and dereliction of duty. The state senate voted to acquit him four months later, though many Republicans still voted to convict him.
Paxton being nominated would likely be seen as an embarrassment for Republicans, and thus a gift for Democrats. But they would still need to run a candidate. O’Rourke has expressed interest, as has the most recent Democratic Senate nominee, Colin Allred. However, recycling candidates has seldom proved to be a winning strategy. Instead, Democrats need a fresh face, and James Talarico fits the bill.
Talarico is no doubt used to being described as a rising star. In 2018 he flipped a Republican-held seat in the state house, where he has served ever since. His Baptist faith is a large part of his political identity, which may resonate with Texas’s voters. If there is anybody who can win Republican voters over in the state, it’s Talarico.
To reiterate, Democrats’ chances are heavily dependent on Cornyn losing renomination, which is not a given. It would be wise for them to field a credible candidate, even simply as a contingency.
The Path to 51 Seats
If Democrats were to flip Maine and North Carolina, as well as keep all their current seats, they would have 49 seats. And we can see that there’s a large gap between the 49th and 50th seats. Most forecasters rate all six of the seats I have listed as Safe or Likely Republican. But forecasters have the tendency to assume a neutral environment, or to pick up where they left off, as it were. But I think we can safely bet that 2026 will not be neutral. With due caution, I would rate all as Likely Republican, with the potential for each of them to move closer.
It is a midterm year, after all. In a midterm year, high single-digit national environments against the presidential party are not uncommon. And with such an unpopular president, the potential for a “wave” is more apparent than ever. When pricing in this potential, the targets suddenly seem ripe for the picking. Flipping seats that are double digits on the presidential level is not uncommon in a midterm.
There’s no saying which of the six are most likely to flip. Some, like Texas, are highly conditional on the nominees. Others, like Florida, take a gamble based on demographic factors that we simply can’t predict. And all of them are subject to volatility based on countless external factors. But winning two out of six is not a monumental task, all things considered.
But flipping the Senate isn’t necessarily Democrats’ main priority. Even if they did bypass the 60-vote threshold, Donald Trump would block any legislation they pass. But every seat they flip, except for Florida and Ohio, would be in Democratic hands until 2032. Meaning if Democrats win the presidency in 2028, every flip next year would be a vote for the party’s agenda for the entire term.
Flipping any of the six seats listed will be an uphill climb for sure. Winning the House will be an easy feat by comparison, so Democrats can afford to set their sights higher. That said, we know very little as to what the next 17 months will look like, so all we can do is wait and see.
