Donald Trump’s economy is on the brink of a substantial recession. Many indicators, of course, continue to look rosy. Job and inflation numbers released last week were surprisingly positive. But Trump has risked it all with indiscriminate cuts to the federal government, impoundment of federal funds, and a reckless trade war that shows no sign of slowing down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped by more than five percent since his inauguration. Consumer sentiment is down and the chances of the United States slipping into a recession increase almost daily.
The damage of recessions
Trump has responded to all of this by trying to change the subject. He is hoping that various cultural and foreign policy conversations will distract from his own economic fecklessness. The president is also hoping that his theory of the unitary executive will mean that a midterm loss in 2026 will not do much to stall his agenda. But it is easy to conclude that a recession would not only hurt his party in 2026 but also in 2028 if it is substantial enough. Ruining Trump’s plans for a successor may help erode his legacy and reverse the damage he has deliberately done to the country.
There was, of course, a recession at the end of Trump’s first term. But the most important aspect of that economic calamity was that it was caused by a cataclysmic public health crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic decimated economies around the world. It greatly reduced demand and forced people inside, in many cases pushing them out of their jobs. Governmental relief helped blunt the impact of this recession, but it still caused economic pain for a large percentage of Americans.
COVID was different
Putting blame on COVID-19 helped Trump redefine the economic legacy of his presidency. He could claim a mea culpa for 2020 and remind people of the rosy economic outlook over the previous three years that he could claim credit for. Such a move was unprecedented. Herbert Hoover was unable to run on the nation’s prosperity during 1929, and Jimmy Carter could not point to the economic success of 1978 in his reelection bid. But it also spoke to the unique nature of the pandemic and the desire for many Americans to forget that it had happened. This framing helped Trump win by the most comfortable margin of his three presidential runs.
Now, Trump risks losing any goodwill he had earned between 2017 and 2020 with his current economic antics. The American people will not continue to reward him for a short period of economic success over five years ago. They want a party that can deliver in the 2020s, not one that delivered back in the 2010s. Trump’s destructive tendencies could easily result in a resurgent Democratic Party and a Republican Party hell-bent on running against him. Trump is safe for the four years of his second term, but his legacy may not be protected if he continues to fail in the economic sphere.
2 Comments
Isn’t Trump bringing jobs back to America and investments. How is that Bad? And what have democrats promised to do differently other than lie to the American people that the economy has been great and that the Biden economy was perfect. Didn’t the Biden administration enter a recession and then try to redefine what a recession was and then Kamala Harris vowed to do nothing different. I’m not saying republicans are great, but democrats just run on “MAGA extremism” being a “threat to Democracy” so I guess I would rather stick with republicans because at least they are trying to fix the economy which is made of cheap televisions and instead focus on cheaper energy and cars made in America. Also, all democrats are focused on are impeachments and hoaxes when they are in the majority or even the minority. Unless Josh Shapiro or Jared Golden run that’s the only ones that are actually focused on policies that can help the American people and to expand to the middle, but the Liberal leadership wants to be progressive and “fight” the “orange man” which is stupid and does nothing but appease their base. I feel this article is more of fear mongering and not legitimate criticisms which I’m so sick and tired of reading because it is nonstop BS. The only reason republicans seem better is because democrats decided to focus on DUMB diversity and men in women’s sports.
If the recession is small and short lived, then it would finally solve inflation while only causing short term economic turmoil. Think Reagan 1981-82.
As the other commenter said, there was a recession in July 2022 but Biden and the media changed the definition.
And at least Trump is being honest about the prospect of a potential recession, in contrast to the gaslighting there was under Biden.