Joe Biden is currently in the last week of his one and only term as president. He is making an attempt to define his legacy and begin to write the history of his administration. The president has recently defended his foreign policy record and plans a farewell speech in Charleston. He is gearing up for Monday’s inauguration, at which he plans to participate in the peaceful transfer of power denied to him during his own inauguration four years ago.
The question of Biden’s legacy seems settled now. Most observers believe that he will be viewed as either a modest or abject failure. They point to rampant inflation, his low approval ratings, and more. As further evidence, they cite the generally abysmal rankings of one-term presidents in American history. With the possible exceptions of Calvin Coolidge and James K. Polk, practically all other one-term presidents have been viewed as abject failures.
But this presentism belies the successes achieved during Biden’s four years in office. Time has the possibility of sanding off the rough edges of this brief period in American history and may end up vindicating Biden’s time in office after all.
Bad timing
Many of the failures that Joe Biden experienced during his four years in office are tied to incidents he could not control. The entire world faced inflation in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden could not stop Russia from invading Ukraine and pushing prices upward even more. He spent over a year trying to push Israel into a ceasefire in its war on Gaza. He also had no viable option in Afghanistan besides withdrawal, despite the protests of the media. His failures would likely have been shared by anyone in the Oval Office at that moment.
Biden’s successes also have the chance of enduring far beyond 2025. Skeptical Democrats and Republicans believe that Trump can roll back the spending and regulations that defined the Biden presidency. But many of them made the same arguments regarding Trump’s approach to Obama’s legacy. This prediction was proven hollow in 2017 when Republicans could not agree to terminate the Affordable Care Act. The idea that Biden could completely overturn the Trump legacy was disproven on the Mexican border. Taking bold, decisive action to either enact or repeal is difficult for a president, and presidential promises often go much further in this area than their specific actions.
In hindsight, Joe Biden’s legacy depends on the durability of his achievements and his approach to governance. His successors will face the question of whether or not to continue his programs or his approach. If they do, there is a decent chance that his presidency will be seen as a renewal of American drive towards economic independence and the fight against climate change. If not, Biden will likely be considered just another in a long line of one-term presidents.
