It’s officially the eve of Election Day, and we appear to be heading towards a photo finish. Today, we’re finalizing our ratings for the key Presidential, Congressional, and Gubernatorial elections. Keeping with our practice of eliminating all Tossups, we have a total of 28 ratings changes today – most of these are pushing races in the Tossup column, while a handful of others are on the fringes of the board.
Owing in large part to the large number of changes here, this article broadly focuses on seats we expect to change hands.
Ratings Changes
- Alaska at-large: Tossup to Leans Republican
- Arizona 1st: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Arizona 6th: Tossup to Leans Republican
- California 13th: Leans Republican to Leans Democratic
- California 22nd: Tossup to Leans Republican
- California 47th: Tossup to Leans Republican
- Florida 7th: Likely Republican to Safe Republican
- Florida 9th: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
- Florida 15th: Likely Republican to Safe Republican
- Florida 23rd: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
- Illinois 17th: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Indiana 1st: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Iowa 3rd: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Maine 2nd: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Michigan 7th: Tossup to Leans Republican
- New Hampshire 1st: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
- New Jersey 7th: Tossup to Leans Republican
- New York 17th: Tossup to Leans Republican
- New York 19th: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- North Carolina 1st: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Ohio 9th: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Oregon 5th: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Pennsylvania 7th: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Pennsylvania 8th: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Pennsylvania 10th: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Virginia 1st: Likely Republican to Safe Republican
- Virginia 2nd: Tossup to Leans Republican
- Washington 3rd: Tossup to Leans Democratic
First off, let’s talk the fringes. We’ve shifted a handful of districts on the edge of competitiveness off of the board entirely. We shifted two Florida districts to Safe Democratic (FL-09 and FL-23) and two others to Safe Republican (FL-07 and FL-15). We also shifted two districts in the southeast (NC-11 and VA-01) back to Safe Republican as well. In the industrial midwest, we’ve moved IL-17 and IN-01 to Likely Democratic; these were Tossup races last cycle, but have fallen in prominence in this one.
A number of seats we expect to ultimately stay in the same partisan hands were subject to heated internal debate. These include:
- Maine’s 2nd district (Leans Democratic), where we expect incumbent Democrat Jared Golden will survive a heated challenge from former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault despite an incredibly shaky start.
- North Carolina’s 1st district (Leans Democratic), where we expect incumbent Democrat Don Davis will hold on in a Biden+2 that is probably going to narrowly back Donald Trump .
- Washington’s 3rd district (Leans Democratic), where incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has handily outspent Republican Joe Kent in a rematch of one of 2022’s biggest upsets.
Republican gains
Now, onto the Tossups. First, let’s go over the seats we expect to flip from Democratic to Republican. In Alaska, incumbent Mary Peltola faces a first – a race with only a single Republican opponent, and a good one at that. Polling has been limited here, but internals from the Begich camp show him up four in the last round of ranked-choice voting. A Data for Progress poll earlier this year showed the race tied, even with Peltola having a ten-point edge in favorability; we have reason to believe her approval has fallen since. We expect Alaska to be carried by Donald Trump by a margin of eight to ten points, and we don’t think Peltola will overcome that. This is a close one, but we’re moving it to Leans Republican.
In California’s 47th district, we expect Republican Scott Baugh to flip this open seat. This one comes down to candidate quality: this is a Biden+11 seat, but Baugh nearly flipped it last cycle. More importantly, Democratic nominee Dave Min has faced continual scrutiny for a 2023 DUI arrest as a state senator. We have this at Leans Republican. Finally, we’re moving Michigan’s 7th district, held by retiring Rep. Elissa Slotkin, to Leans Republican; all polls here have shown a lead for Republican Tom Barrett.
Democratic gains
On the Democratic side, we have six additional districts set to flip. The first is Arizona’s 1st district. Polling has been limited, but on a fundamental district level we think the trends will be too much for Schweikert to overcome. We’re moving it to Leans Democratic. In California’s 13th district’s rematch, we think Democrat Adam Gray is now the favorite to unseat first-term incumbent Republican John Duarte. We also expect Democrats to flip Iowa’s 3rd district, in large part due to a favorable broader climate in the Rust Belt. Both of them move to Leans Democratic.
In two races in New York, we’re moving the 19th district to Leans Democratic. We think Democratic stretch in Ithaca is going to be too much for first-term incumbent Republican Marc Molinaro to overcome. We also expect Democrats to flip Oregon’s 5th district and Pennsylvania’s 10th district. The 10th district in particular would be a major coup; incumbent Scott Perry is one of the foremost members of the Freedom Caucus, and one of the few to represent a genuine swing seat. Multiple polls, including a Republican internal, have shown him trailing Democrat Janelle Stelson. Both of these move to Leans Democratic.
What it means
With these changes, we predict that Democrats will flip control of the House of Representatives, but only barely. We’re projecting that 219 Democrats and 216 Republicans will be elected – a three-seat majority for the Democrats, among the narrowest in American history.
It’s worth noting, however, that the margin of error here is high. It would only take a handful of seats diverging for control to flip. In other words: this is as close to a 50/50 House of Representatives election as we’ve ever seen.
Final House Ratings
