Ratings Change
Our major change today is in Pennsylvania. We’ve been conservative with this race for some time now, but we think the race has narrowed to the point that it’s in a similar position to its Rust Belt neighbors. As of the time of writing, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. has a three-point lead over Republican Dave McCormick in the DDHQ/The Hill polling average. Pennsylvania’s presidential race remains a tossup.
There’s two major reasons for this change. The first comes down to McCormick’s campaign, which has a rare monetary advantage. While Casey Jr. is outraising McCormick as a candidate, McCormick has an overall monetary advantage due to spending from outside groups. This advantage has allowed McCormick to flood Pennsylvania airwaves with ads, which has helped narrow the race. McCormick has cut an eight-point deficit in August to a five-point deficit in September, and a three-point deficit now.
The second boils down to Casey Jr. – polarization finally appears to have caught up to him. Casey Jr. is more than an established name in Pennsylvania politics, and he has an extensive record of securing strong margins in the traditional working-class strongholds of southeast and northeast Pennsylvania. However, time has chipped away at this advantage in each cycle, and that crossover appeal has essentially waned; Casey Jr. is more or less polling like a typical Pennsylvania Democrat. We wouldn’t be surprised to see him perform better than Harris in these regions – in fact, we expect it. But it won’t be by nearly as much as he’s used to seeing.
We still think Casey Jr. has the edge here. But McCormick’s campaign is giving him a fight, and we don’t think this race can be considered a second-tier contest anymore. We’re moving it from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
We’re Not Shifting Nebraska – Yet
At this point, Elections Daily stands alone among election prognosticators in keeping Nebraska’s Senate race at Safe Republican. Just today, our friends at Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race to Leans Republican, citing a slew of internal polling as well as heightened Republican spending. Given our outlier status, we feel our rating warrants an explanation.
At Elections Daily, our ratings do not indicate the expected margin of victory. Instead, they’re based on win probability – the odds a candidate wins. Because of this, we often put races other outlets have at “Leans” or “Likely” at “Safe” instead. However, as of this cycle, we have never missed on a race we have at “Safe”.
This cycle, Nebraska is one of two races we have at “Safe” that other outlets have at “Likely” or “Leans” – the other is Maryland’s Senate race. Why do we think Osborn can’t win? It’s pretty simple:
- Nebraska is a state Donald Trump is likely to carry by at least 15 points. Osborn is not going to overperform the Democratic slate by 15 points.
- The vast majority of polls in this race have been internals, specifically a flood of internal polls from Osborn. There have only been two nonpartisan polls so far – one by our friends at Split Ticket, and the other from the New York Times. In the Split Ticket poll, Osborn was down a point statewide – but at an unimpressive 38%. In the New York Times poll, Osborn was only only overperforming Harris by 2 in the 2nd district. Internal polling from Fischer has shown her campaign in the lead by seven points.
If this race actually receives credible, nonpartisan polling in the last few weeks showing a tight race, we might consider changing it. But even in this scenario, we’d likely follow our gut, like we did in 2022 in New York’s gubernatorial race. Polls routinely showed a close election down the stretch. However, we held firm in our Safe Democratic rating; in order for Republicans to win, they would have needed statewide shifts that we found to be highly unlikely.
Ultimately, Democrat Kathy Hochul won by 7 points due to the impregnable Democratic firewall of New York City. We wouldn’t be surprised if Osborn performs respectably, finishing perhaps 5-10 points ahead of Harris in the state. But like in Maryland, where goldilocks candidate Larry Hogan faces the nearly impossible task of outrunning Trump by over 30 points, we think it’s statistically highly unlikely for Osborn to win, especially in today’s polarized environment.