Ratings Changes
- AK-AL: Leans Democratic to Tossup
- AZ-02: Safe Republican to Likely Republican
- PA-10: Leans Republican to Tossup
Starting off, we’re shifting Alaska’s at-large district from Leans Democratic to Tossup. Following the all-party jungle primary, where incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola received 51% of the vote, we shifted this seat to the Democratic column, even after third-place finisher Nancy Dahlstrom (R) dropped out. However, it’s become abundantly clear this is a far closer contest now. Following third-place finishes in the 2022 special and 2022 general election, Nick Begich III appears to have mostly consolidated the Republican vote. And as a result of a slew of candidate dropouts, the race – which once looked like it could have two or even three Republicans – will instead have two Democrats (the other being Eric Hefner, a federal prisoner) and an Alaskan Independence Party candidate on the ballot.
In other words: Peltola no longer has access to the structural advantages that allowed her to win in 2022. She’s facing a unified Republican ticket, has to deal with a second Democrat, and still faces a national climate where Trump will likely win the state by around 10 points. Polling has also shown a tightening race – albeit in Republican internals. The most recent poll from Cygnal, which had Begich down two in August, showed him leading Peltola 49-45 in the first round, and 52-48 after ranked-choice. Peltola is still an exceptionally strong Democratic candidate – she’s even snagged the endorsement of the National Rifle Association (NRA) – but she’s on thin ice. This update also means that all three Blue Dog co-chairs are in Tossup races; in other words there’s a chance that the caucus loses its entire leadership in one election.
In Pennsylvania, we’re shifting Republican Scott Perry’s 10th district. Perry, a vocal member of the far-right Freedom Caucus and staunch ally of Donald Trump, is facing a very strong challenge and appears to be in the fight of his political life. Democrat Janelle Stelson – a registered Republican until last year – is performing exceptionally well. A well-known local news anchor, she has led in the last two polls, a Republican and Democratic internal. In short: Perry is clearly no longer the favorite here. This district moves from Leans Republican to Tossup, and it’s very possible we shift this to the Democratic column in our final update.
Finally, we’re moving Arizona’s 2nd district from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. This is primarily out of an abundance of caution. This is a Trump+8 district, but it has one of the largest Native American populations of any congressional district. The Democratic nominee, former Navajo Nation president Jonathan Nez, appears to be performing above expectations. A recent poll from Noble Predictive Insights showed Nez tied with first-term incumbent Eli Crane at 42%. This obviously isn’t enough to win at the moment, but it’s a close enough race that we feel it’s worth placing on the board.
Ratings
