With less than a month until the 2024 presidential election, the field is starting to truly materialize. In today’s ratings update, the first since September, we’re shifting three states and one district towards the Democratic Party. These changes narrow the board down to our Tossup states, which hold the keys to the White House.
Ratings Changes
- Maine: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Nebraska-2: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
- New Hampshire: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Nevada: Tossup to Leans Democratic
First off, we’re shifting the two New England states of Maine and New Hampshire from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. Before Joe Biden dropped out of the race, polls showed competitive races in both states, and it’s worth noting that Donald Trump came close to carrying both in 2016. However, Kamala Harris appears to be on far more stable footing in both; recent polling shows her with a high single-digit lead in both states.
We’re also shifting Nebraska’s 2nd district from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. Multiple high-quality polls, including one from the New York Times, have now shown Harris pulling away in this district. At this point, we think Harris is easily the favorite in this district.
Finally, we’re shifting Nevada from Tossup to Leans Democratic. This decision is tied closely to our decision to keep North Carolina at Leans Republican; simply put. we think this is likely where both states will end up in our final ratings. Nevada and North Carolina have a tendency to be the “stickiest” swing states; Republicans have only won one federal race in Nevada since 2008 (a Senate contest in 2012), and Democrats haven’t won a federal race in North Carolina since 2008.
Polls are starting to reflect this; Trump has led or tied in every poll this month in North Carolina, while Harris has led in four of the last five in Nevada. With a national environment increasingly resembling 2020, we think these states are probably going to follow a similar tack.
Current Ratings
With our ratings changes in place, we now have five states remaining in the Tossup column: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The most important of the Tossups are likely the Rust Belt trio; if either Harris or Trump wins all three, they win the election. There are other potential combinations – like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona for Harris or Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin for Trump – but it’s hard to see the winner of this election losing Pennsylvania.