For much of the 2024 Presidential election cycle, things looked very favorable for Republicans. Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, enjoyed a rock concert-esque Republican convention after surviving a close assassination attempt. President Joe Biden, once the presumptive Democratic nominee, succumbed to a widely-panned debate performance against Trump in which he appeared mentally and physically drained. He stepped down on July 21st, opening the nomination to Vice President Kamala Harris.
For us at Elections Daily, the polling data backed this up. Not only was Trump establishing healthy leads in the swing states, but formerly solid states for the Democrats, including the Commonwealth of Virginia, have been narrowing up. We recently moved it from safe to likely Democratic. Virginia becoming more competitive is notable, as this deep-blue state has bred a revived conservative moment during the Biden years, led by Governor Glenn Youngkin. Youngkin pulled off an upset victory over former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe in 2021 and has maintained a high approval rating in a state President Biden won by 10 points. But even as Harris has regained a lead nationally, polls in Virginia continue to show a close race.
Given all of this, is Virginia turning red? Is this state that has been racing away from the Republicans finally changing its mind? And if so, will it be in time for Trump? Given the interesting dynamics present here, it is worth taking a closer look at the Old Dominion.
A Political Profile of Virginia
Virginia, perhaps more than any other state in the union, presents a sort of microcosm of American politics. This growing southern state is home to wide diversity in faith, ethnic background, socioeconomics, and political activity. In its north, Virginia is very ethnically diverse, home to growing Latino and Asian American communities, and is known for liberal suburbs of Washington, DC. The political traditions of the Christian south and Appalachia are alive and well in the state’s south and west, respectively. Virginia is very prone to national trends, often bucking the party in the White House in its off-year statewide elections, and is favorable to political moderates, rejecting both MAGA Republicans and progressive Democrats.
It is also solidly blue, after being a red state for decades. Beginning with President Barack Obama in 2008, Democrats have won Virginia by ever-increasing margins on the Presidential level, even in 2016. Biden’s 2020 win was notable for being the strongest by any Democrat since President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944, pushing Virginia to the left of longtime blue strongholds like Maine and Minnesota. The party has also held its own in the major statewide races, as Virginia has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002, although some subsequent Democratic victories were extremely close. To put things into perspective, Illinois and Massachusetts have elected Republican Senators more recently than Virginia. In 2013, Democrats flipped the governorship in the only Virginia Gubernatorial race since 1973 where the winner was of the President’s party.
But in 2021, the blue train crashed into a wall, as private equity executive Glenn Youngkin clinched the governorship in his first political race, one seen as a referendum on President Biden. His red wave also retook the House of Delegates from the Democrats. The victory was made possible by a delicate balancing act that allowed Youngkin to keep support from Trump voters while wooing White suburbanites who had shifted towards the Democrats. Youngkin never openly embraced Trump on the campaign trail, although he expressed support for traditional conservative principles and national GOP talking points regarding the economy and education, top issues for Virginia voters. In a way, it allows the GOP to present itself as a “common-sense” alternative to “radical” Democrats.
In order to assess Youngkin’s ability to deliver the Old Dominion for Trump, the factors moving the nation towards Trump, and state towards Youngkin, must be scrutinized.
Is Youngkin Turning Virginia Red?
The Youngkin blueprint is upheld as a model for future victories in Virginia. In some ways, it is still working. In 2023, Democrats retook the House of Delegates and held the Senate, an election widely seen as a blow to Youngkin’s much-flouted policy and electoral aspirations. However, an ignored point is that, despite maintaining the Senate, Democrats actually lost a seat to the Republicans, and only hold one-seat majorities in both chambers. Given Virginia’s partisanship, this is a miniscule victory compared to the Democratic wipeouts in states like Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania just a year prior. Republicans hold a traditional advantage in the Virginia legislature, as in some other blue-leaning states, but a larger Democratic victory may have been reasonably expected.
Beyond this, there is reason to believe that Youngkin has moved Virginia ever so slightly to the right. The Governor has a very high approval rating, according to recent polls, and his approval has been above 50% for most of his tenure. Notably, polls even show that Youngkin would carry Virginia over Biden had he been the Republican nominee, despite Virginians not wanting him to run for President yet. The same poll strikingly revealed stronger support for having a GOP-controlled legislature than a Democratic-controlled one, including among independents. Youngkin’s PAC, Spirit of Virginia, seems to have had some impact on statewide races, too. In the 2023 elections, Republicans pulled off narrow victories in competitive races invested in by the PAC. Polling in the state has consistently been much closer than throughout the 2020 election cycle. According to 270towin’s polling tracker, Virginia is a tossup, demonstrating a much more drastic rightward shift than in other states that voted for Biden by a similar margin, such as New Mexico and Colorado. This accounts for Biden’s withdrawal from the race.
Regarding Congressional races, Senator Tim Kaine, who is very popular and obliterated his Republican opponent in 2018, is on track for a much smaller but still decisive reelection over Republican Hung Cao in November, if polls are to be believed. In the competitive 2nd Congressional District, Republican Jen Kiggans, who has campaigned with Youngkin, is widely considered the slight favorite for reelection after defeating the incumbent Democrat in 2022. The district covers the Eastern Shore and Hampton Roads areas, including Virginia Beach, a region where both parties are highly competitive.
And Youngkin is not the first in the relatively recent trend of governors having an outsized impact on the political direction of their states. Consider Ron DeSantis in Florida and Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan.
All of this gives some credence to the idea that Youngkin is remaking Virginia’s partisanship, and could help Trump in November. However, given Republican limitations in Virginia, an outright flip is not likely.
What Youngkin Can Do
Youngkin could deploy three main factors to give Trump a boost in Virginia: independent voters, concerns about the cost of living, and voter enthusiasm.
Independents made up 30% of the state’s voters in the 2020 election, and they are leaded towards Trump, 46% to 38%, according to a July poll. This represents a massive swing from 2020, when independents broke heavily for Biden, 57 to 38 percent. A comparison of exit polls between the 2020 and 2021 races shows that independents played a key role in Youngkin’s victory. He won the independent vote in 2021 54% to 45%. In both races, they represented 30% of voters, compared to 36% of voters being Democrats, and 34% Republicans (Youngkin won a stronger margin than Trump among Republicans, but this may not have been enough to flip the state on its own). A strong enough pitch could help Trump narrow the margins with independents. The potential is there: as mentioned earlier, independents, by a large margin, would rather the General Assembly be controlled by the GOP than the Democrats.
On the cost of living, Virginians’ top issue this election, Republicans have a starting advantage. Biden’s handling of the economy is disapproved of in Virginia, as it was during the 2021 campaign. This theme was present in Youngkin’s passionate address to the 2024 RNC, in which he evoked the nation’s economic struggles. He also subtly reminded Virginians that they believe the state is headed in the right direction, and America as-a-whole in the wrong direction, and have for months. Given Trump’s endorsement, this is being used to tell voters that a conservative policy platform deemed to be working well in Virginia should be taken nationally, and is enough to push aside concerns about Trump’s unorthodox demeanor. Given that Youngkin’s own accusations of race-baiting in 2021 did not sink him, and that Trump is seen very unfavorably by Virginians, such a pitch seems likely to help Trump.
Finally, there is the enthusiasm factor. Youngkin, like Trump, has proven adept at pumping up Republicans to vote, as demonstrated in 2021, when he electrified rural and exurban counties, and in 2023, when he kept GOP losses to a minimum. His Reagan-like demeanor as a happy, charismatic, vest-wearing dad could sway some persuadable voters, in order to balance out the aggressiveness of the Trump campaign. Youngkin’s RNC address hints at his adoption of Trump’s populist appeal: he presented himself as an “outsider businessman” who broke Democrats’ stranglehold on Virginia, a triumph that he believes Trump will repeat. The extent of Republican turnout could make a huge difference, as, inversely, Democrats won in 2017 because of massive turnout.
Adding on to this, the idea that a party, especially the minority, has a real chance of winning a long-shot race seems to be a factor in whether or not its voters can turn out and bring unexpected results, impacting future cycles. Consider the Republican turnout surges in New York in 2022, when unpopular Governor Kathy Hochul was hanging on by a thread, or New Jersey in 2021, when Governor Phil Murphy drew Republicans’ ire over his COVID-19 response. Likewise, Democrats in Florida hardly turned out in 2022, feeling demoralized after a string of losses. Today, the former two states are polling more closely than expected, and Florida is looking terrible for Democrats. With all of this in mind, Republicans are already turning up the volume on a potential Virginia upset, as they did in 2021.
Why Virginia Won’t Ultimately Flip
Despite all the factors working in Trump’s favor, he is highly unlikely to flip Virginia. There are five main reasons: partisanship, voter demographics, a disadvantage on the issues, Trump’s unpopularity, and geographic trends.
For one thing, Virginia is too strongly blue a state for Trump to reasonably overcome. He would have to shift the state at least ten points to the right, which would be much more difficult for a Republican running for President than for Governor. In 2020, the strongest shift left from 2016 of any state was by 9.4 points, in Vermont, a progressive state where polling data vastly overestimated Biden. Iowa, an Obama state in 2012, did shift 15 points right in 2016, but was already heading in that direction beforehand, and embraced the MAGA movement in a way Virginia has not. Democrats also start out with a strong infrastructure advantage in the state regarding voter turnout operations.
With Biden off the ticket, polling data shows Harris improving the Democrats’ prospects across the board. Although data on Virginia is limited, and she has reportedly jolted excitement into Virginia Democrats in a way not seen since Obama. In particular, Harris outruns Biden among key demographics for Virginia. Voter registration data shows that young people seem much more likely to vote for Harris than they were for Biden, who was never especially popular with the demographic. Young people made up a sizable portion of the state’s voters in 2020, and broke very heavily for Biden. By contrast, in 2021, turnout among young people was low, and Youngkin’s margin among these voters was better than Trump’s. The picture is similar with independents, who prefer Harris to Biden.
Regarding nonwhite voters, Harris’ ability to mobilize Black, Latino, and Asian American voters will be important for keeping Virginia out of Trump’s hands.
Black voters, the backbone of the Virginia Democratic Party, seem more likely to show up for Harris. Several polls showed Black Virginians heavily turning on Biden, reflecting a national trend of declining motivation to vote among Black Democrats relative to 2020. Some Black commentators and analysts have claimed that the much-alleged mass movement to Trump among Black voters is a mere talking point, and data backs this up. In recent polls of Black voters, Harris appeared to erase Trump’s gains among Black voters, and far outperformed him in terms of trust. Black voters made up 18% of Virginia voters in 2020 and are the state’s largest ethnic minority community.
Among Latino voters, Democrats start out with an advantage, but warning signs are present. Latinos overwhelmingly voted for Biden, but exit polls show inconsistent results for 2021: CNN and Edison Research exit polls showed a strong McAuliffe victory, while Fox News and Associated Press polls had Youngkin up. Trump has largely polled well with Latino voters, running even with, or ahead of, Biden. But Harris appears to be eating into those gains, and has history on her side: she performed well with Latinos in her California elections. Although Virginia Latinos voted mostly for Biden, they remained slightly more conservative than their counterparts in swing state Pennsylvania, showing room to grow for the Democrats. Additionally, despite Biden’s strong victory in 2020, Trump performed about six points better among Virginia Latinos than he did in 2016, even when Virginia as a whole moved roughly five points to the left. Thus, the Latino vote does not appear to be make-or-break for Democrats, but closer statewide polls point to growing importance in winning these voters.
Asian American voters are also very important in Virginia, especially in the northern counties. These voters backed Biden in 2020, and support key Democratic priorities. Polling data on 2021 similarly paints an uneven picture, pointing to a battle among the candidates for these voters.
On the issues, Harris is a cheerleader for abortion access and voting rights, issues Democrats credit for their 2023 wins, and the former of which is near-top-of-mind for Virginia voters. Virginia is notable for its strong voting protections. These will likely drive Democratic turnout, as a singular focus on the economy likely would have helped Republicans last year. Education, one of Youngkin’s signature issues, is not especially relevant this year, although the Governor mentioned it in his RNC address.
The Trump factor can only take the GOP so far statewide. Worth noting is Trump and Youngkin’s slowness in embracing each other. Had Youngkin openly flouted Trump from the start, he likely would not have won his race, given the narrow two-point victory. Today, his gamble that Biden’s abysmal polling provides a cushion to go “all-out” for the former President could severely backfire in November and beyond. As established earlier, Virginia tends to reject political extremes. Donald Trump was never especially popular there, and appears to be performing well solely in relation to the Biden Administration’s track record. Youngkin is widely seen as a more moderate figure in his party, at least on the surface. Trump fared somewhat poorly in Virginia’s 2024 primary, losing some counties to the more establishment-friendly Nikki Haley.
Finally, Democrats have geographic trends on their side. Despite losing rural areas to the GOP, they have made inroads in the heavily populated suburbs of the Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia, where they maintained their fortunes in 2023, and will likely peel back Biden-to-Youngkin voters who are not happy with Trump and typically vote for Democrats. Democrats will likely boost turnout in the state’s left-trending cities, including Charlottesville, Williamsburg, Richmond, and Arlington, while holding their own in the DC suburbs. In the Hampton Roads, Black turnout is key, as is turnout in Norfolk and Portsmouth, where Democrats made gains in 2020 and 2023, and kept Youngkin’s inroads to a relative minimum.
Republicans only have so much room to grow. Assuming a max-out of rural support, they would have to massively build on their improvements in the DC suburbs, which seems unlikely given Trump’s presence atop the GOP ticket. They would also have to maintain their strong gains in the Northern Neck, along with Suffolk and Southampton Counties, while holding their own in Virginia Beach. Not only is this unlikely in a presidential election year, but these regions can only take them so far, given yearslong trends in the Democrats’ direction and the GOP’s poor performance in 2023. It was a combination of increased support here, rural turnout, and improvements in the dark-blue northern suburbs, paired with Democratic apathy, that put Youngkin over the top.
Conclusion: Looking Ahead
Governor Youngkin has undoubtedly left an impact on Virginia’s political nature, but he has only moved Virginia slightly right. Despite his galvanizing movement, the weaknesses of Trump’s make a GOP Presidential win in deep-blue Virginia implausible. And Republicans, if they ever want to turn Virginia fully red in the long term, have many strong factors working against them.
As it stands today, Youngkin will likely remain a strong figure in national GOP politics. Some Republicans still uphold him as a promising future standard-bearer of the party. Although I have heard mixed opinions from Virginians regarding his effectiveness as a governor, it can be assumed that a Youngkin-led GOP ticket would perform very well nationally, giving Democrats a run for their money.
But the Democrats still hold a strong advantage in this state, and are on track for a 3-8-point victory in November. Regardless of the outcome, the voter dynamics and political geography of the Old Dominion will prove relevant in future election cycles.
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Abigail Spanberger will succeed Youngkin in 2025.