It’s been a while since our most recent House ratings update, but we feel the time is right to make adjustments. New polling and developments in several districts mean we’re making three ratings changes this week.
Ratings Changes
Our first change is in Alaska, where we’re shifting the state’s lone congressional district from Tossup to Leans Democratic. Incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola – who turned a fluke special election victory in August 2022 into a landslide a few months later – is almost certain to receive over 50% of the vote in the state’s jungle primary. Given how new this system is to Alaska, we don’t have a lot of direct comparisons. However, the fact Peltola is performing so well is a good sign for her in November.
That being said, circumstances aren’t as dire for Republicans as it first appeared. Third-place finisher Nancy Dahlstrom initially said she’d stay in the race, but almost immediately reversed course and dropped out. Combined, Nick Begich and Dahlstrom received around 47% of the vote in the jungle primary. The top-four will consist of Peltola and Begich, along with two minor candidates. We think Peltola is favored, but she will not have the benefit of a divided Republican field this time.
We’re also changing two other ratings. In Maine, we’re shifting the 2nd district from Leans Democratic to Tossup. We’re primarily making this change due to actions made by the incumbent Democrat, Jared Golden, who has increasingly been acting like a candidate running behind. Most notably, Golden has declined to endorse the Democratic presidential ticket. We expect Trump to carry this district – one of the most rural and whitest in the country – by a solid margin, and we no longer believe Golden is favored.
Finally, we’re shifting Pennsylvania’s 10th district from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Incumbent Scott Perry is one of the House’s foremost conservative flamethrowers, a reputation increasingly out of step in this somewhat competitive seat. All four polls conducted so far here show a competitive race, and we think that’s what this race is.
Current Ratings
Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly said Dahlstrom had endorsed Begich; she hasn’t officially endorsed him yet.