We have two Senate ratings changes to make in our latest update, taking a swing state off the table and moving one of our Tossup races into the Leans Democratic column.
Ratings Changes
- Arizona – Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Virginia – Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
The first and more interesting of our changes comes in Arizona, where Democrats are now favored. We initially had this seat as a Tossup, anticipating a three-way race between Democrat Ruben Gallego, Republican Kari Lake, and Independent Kyrsten Sinema. However, Sinema opted not to run for re-election, and polling has consistently shown Gallego up over Lake.
While Gallego is more liberal in a vacuum than expected for a swing-state Senator, Lake – who lost the 2022 gubernatorial race – has proven to be an abysmal candidate. Her strong underperformance in the primary, where she defeated underfunded Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb by only a 16-point margin, only adds to the problems. We’re moving this race to Leans Democratic.
Additionally, we’re taking Virginia off the board. While we felt this could be a sleeper race at first – Republicans did well here in the 2022 midterms, and appeared to have a strong candidate in Hung Cao – this clearly isn’t the case anymore. Cao ran an impressive campaign against Jennifer Wexton last cycle, but he’s been a poor statewide candidate. And while polls show Virginia in the mid-single digits in the Presidential race, incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine has led by at least nine points in every poll taken so far. We’re shifting this back to Safe Democratic.
Races to watch
We had strong internal discussion about moving several other states, and are keeping an eye on them for future updates. If the election was held today, we would expect Republican Tim Sheehy to flip Montana and Democrat Sherrod Brown to hold Ohio. But there’s still plenty of time until Election Day; we’re just not confident enough to move either race, especially Ohio. Additionally, it’s clear that Democrat Tammy Baldwin has a firm lead in Wisconsin – this may be a state we consider moving further into the Democratic column.
We’re also keeping an eye on New Mexico, where multiple opinion polls have shown a race in the mid-single-digits. Incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich appears to be taking this race seriously, and has begun running attack ads against Republican Nella Domenici – the daughter of former Senator Pete Domenici. We slept on New Mexico in the last federal cycle, only to see it be more competitive than races in alleged swing states Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina.
On the whole, we still think a Republican majority – even a narrow one – is the most likely scenario.